We study ergodic properties of some Markov chains models in random environments when the random Markov kernels that define the dynamic satisfy some usual drift and small set conditions but with random coefficients. In particular, we adapt a standard coupling scheme used for getting geometric ergodic properties for homogeneous Markov chains to the random environment case and we prove the existence of a process of randomly invariant probability measures for such chains, in the spirit of the approach of Kifer for chains satisfying some Doeblin type conditions. We then deduce ergodic properties of such chains when the environment is itself ergodic. Our results complement and sharpen existing ones by providing quite weak and easily checkable assumptions on the random Markov kernels. As a by-product, we obtain a framework for studying some time series models with strictly exogenous covariates. We illustrate our results with autoregressive time series with functional coefficients and some threshold autoregressive processes.
We consider a stationary regularly varying time series which can be expressedas a function of a geometrically ergodic Markov chain. We obtain practical conditionsfor the weak convergence of the tail array sums and feasible estimators ofcluster statistics. These conditions include the so-called geometric drift or Foster-Lyapunovcondition and can be easily checked for most usual time series models witha Markovian structure. We illustrate these conditions on several models and statisticalapplications. A counterexample is given to show a different limiting behaviorwhen the geometric drift conditio…
It is well known that stationary geometrically ergodic Markov chains are $β$-mixing (absolutely regular) with geometrically decaying mixing coefficients. Furthermore, for initial distributions other than the stationary one, geometric ergodicity implies $β$-mixing under suitable moment assumptions. In this note we show that similar results hold also for subgeometrically ergodic Markov chains. In particular, for both stationary and other initial distributions, subgeometric ergodicity implies $β$-mixing with subgeometrically decaying mixing coefficients. Although this result is simple it should p…
The first motivation of this paper is to study stationarity and ergodic properties for a general class of time series models defined conditional on an exogenous covariates process. The dynamic of these models is given by an autoregressive latent process which forms a Markov chain in random environments. Contrarily to existing contributions in the field of Markov chains in random environments, the state space is not discrete and we do not use small set type assumptions or uniform contraction conditions for the random Markov kernels. Our assumptions are quite general and allows to deal with mode…
In this paper we find nonasymptotic exponential upper bounds for the deviation in the ergodic theorem for families of homogeneous Markov processes. We find some sufficient conditions for geometric ergodicity uniformly over a parametric family. We apply this property to the nonasymptotic nonparametric estimation problem for ergodic diffusion processes.
We state and prove a quantitative version of the bounded difference inequality for geometrically ergodic Markov chains. Our proof uses the same martingale decomposition as \cite{MR3407208} but, compared to this paper, the exact coupling argument is modified to fill a gap between the strongly aperiodic case and the general aperiodic case.
Bifurcating Markov chains (BMC) are Markov chains indexed by a full binary tree representing the evolution of a trait along a population where each individual has two children. We provide a central limit theorem for general additive functionals of BMC, and prove the existence of three regimes. This corresponds to a competition between the reproducing rate (each individual has two children) and the ergodicity rate for the evolution of the trait. This is in contrast with the work of Guyon (2007), where the considered additive functionals are sums of martingale increments, and only one regime app…
Strong invariance principles describe the error term of a Brownian approximation of the partial sums of a stochastic process. While these strong approximation results have many applications, the results for continuous-time settings have been limited. In this paper, we obtain strong invariance principles for a broad class of ergodic Markov processes. Strong invariance principles provide a unified framework for analysing commonly used estimators of the asymptotic variance in settings with a dependence structure. We demonstrate how this can be used to analyse the batch means method for simulation…
We prove a new concentration inequality for U-statistics of order two for uniformly ergodic Markov chains. Working with bounded and $π$-canonical kernels, we show that we can recover the convergence rate of Arcones and Gin{é} who proved a concentration result for U-statistics of independent random variables and canonical kernels. Our result allows for a dependence of the kernels $h_{i,j}$ with the indexes in the sums, which prevents the use of standard blocking tools. Our proof relies on an inductive analysis where we use martingale techniques, uniform ergodicity, Nummelin splitting and Bernst…
We prove that an irreducible aperiodic Markov chain is geometrically ergodic if and only if any separately bounded functional of the stationary chain satisfies an appropriate subgaussian deviation inequality from its mean.
We study ergodic properties of nonlinear Markov chains and stochastic McKean-Vlasov equations. For nonlinear Markov chains we obtain sufficient conditions for existence and uniqueness of an invariant measure and uniform ergodicity. We also prove optimality of these conditions. For stochastic McKean-Vlasov equations we establish exponential convergence of their solutions to stationarity in the total variation metric under Veretennikov-Khasminskii-type conditions.
In this paper the stability and the perturbation bounds of Markov operators acting on abstract state spaces are investigated. Here, an abstract state space is an ordered Banach space where the norm has an additivity property on the cone of positive elements. We basically study uniform ergodic properties of Markov operators by means of so-called a generalized Dobrushin's ergodicity coefficient. This allows us to get several convergence results with rates. Some results on quasi-compactness of Markov operators are proved in terms of the ergodicity coefficient. Furthermore, a characterization of u…
Ergodicity is a fundamental issue for a stochastic process. In this paper, we refine results on ergodicity for a general type of Markov chain to a specific type or the $GI/G/1$-type Markov chain, which has many interesting and important applications in various areas. It is of interest to obtain conditions in terms of system parameters or the given information about the process, under which the chain has various ergodic properties. Specifically, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for geometric, strong and polynomial ergodicity, respectively.
We consider a discrete time hidden Markov model where the signal is a stationary Markov chain. When conditioned on the observations, the signal is a Markov chain in a random environment under the conditional measure. It is shown that this conditional signal is weakly ergodic when the signal is ergodic and the observations are nondegenerate. This permits a delicate exchange of the intersection and supremum of $σ$-fields, which is key for the stability of the nonlinear filter and partially resolves a long-standing gap in the proof of a result of Kunita [J. Multivariate Anal. 1 (1971) 365--393]. …
We establish verifiable general sufficient conditions for exponential or subexponential ergodicity of Markov processes that may lack the strong Feller property. We apply the obtained results to show exponential ergodicity of a variety of nonlinear stochastic partial differential equations with additive forcing, including 2D stochastic Navier-Stokes equations. Our main tool is a new version of the generalized coupling method.
Let $(ξ_n)_{n=0}^\infty$ be a nonhomogeneous Markov chain taking values from finite state-space of $\mathbf{X}=\{1,2,\ldots,b\}$. In this paper, we will study the generalized entropy ergodic theorem with almost-everywhere and $\mathcal{L}_1$ convergence for nonhomogeneous Markov chains, which generalizes the corresponding classical results for the Markov chains.
We consider ergodic backward stochastic differential equations, in a setting where noise is generated by a countable state uniformly ergodic Markov chain. We show that for Lipschitz drivers such that a comparison theorem holds, these equations admit unique solutions. To obtain this result, we show by coupling and splitting techniques that uniform ergodicity estimates of Markov chains are robust to perturbations of the rate matrix, and that these perturbations correspond in a natural way to EBSDEs. We then consider applications of this theory to Markov decision problems with a risk-averse avera…
In this paper, we give quantitative bounds on the $f$-total variation distance from convergence of an Harris recurrent Markov chain on an arbitrary under drift and minorisation conditions implying ergodicity at a sub-geometric rate. These bounds are then specialized to the stochastically monotone case, covering the case where there is no minimal reachable element. The results are illustrated on two examples from queueing theory and Markov Chain Monte Carlo.
We discuss the ergodic properties of quasi-Markovian stochastic differential equations, providing general conditions that ensure existence and uniqueness of a smooth invariant distribution and exponential convergence of the evolution operator in suitably weighted $L^{\infty}$ spaces, which implies the validity of central limit theorem for the respective solution processes. The main new result is an ergodicity condition for the generalized Langevin equation with configuration-dependent noise and (non-)conservative force.
We present formulas for quasi-ergodic limits of finite absorbing Markov chains. Since the irreducible case has been solved in 1965 by Darroch and Seneta, we focus on the reducible case, and our results are based on a very precise asymptotic analysis of the (exponential and polynomial) growth behaviour along admissible paths
We give a bound on the mixing time of a uniformly ergodic, reversible Markov chain in terms of the spectral radius of the transition operator. This bound has been established previously in finite state spaces, and is widely believed to hold in general state spaces, but a proof has not been provided to our knowledge.
We study ergodic properties of a class of Markov-modulated general birth-death processes under fast regime switching. The first set of results concerns the ergodic properties of the properly scaled joint Markov process with a parameter that is taken large. Under very weak hypotheses, we show that if the averaged process is exponentially ergodic for large values of the parameter, then the same applies to the original joint Markov process. The second set of results concerns steady-state diffusion approximations, under the assumption that the 'averaged' fluid limit exists. Here, we establish conv…
We consider Markov chain with spectral gap in $L^2$ space. Assume that $f$ is a bounded function. Then the probabilities of large deviations of average along trajectory satisfy Hoeffding's-type inequalities. These bounds depend only on the stationary mean, spectral gap and the end-points of support of $f$.
We consider a time inhomogeneous strong Markov process $(ξ_t)_{t\ge 0}$ taking values in a Polish state space whose semigroup has a $T$-periodic structure. We give simple conditions which imply ergodicity of the grid chain $(ξ_{kT})_{k\in \mathbb{N}_0}$ In case of $d$-dimensional possibly degenerate diffusions, the conditions are stated in terms of drift and diffusion coefficient of the process.
We study perturbation theory and uniform ergodicity for discrete-time Markov chains on general state spaces in terms of the uniform moments of the first hitting times on some set. The methods we adopt are different from previous ones. For reversible and non-negative definite Markov chains, we first investigate the geometrically ergodic convergence rates. Based on the estimates, together with a first passage formula, we then get the convergence rates in uniform ergodicity. If the transition kernel $P$ is only reversible, we transfer to study the two-skeleton chain with the transition kernel $P^…
It is known that the Dobrushin's ergodicity coefficient is one of the effective tools to study a behavior of non-homogeneous Markov chains. In the present paper, we define such an ergodicity coefficient of a positive mapping defined on ordered Banach space with a base (OBSB), and study its properties. In terms of this coefficient we prove the equivalence uniform and weak ergodicities of homogeneous Markov chains. This extends earlier results obtained in case of von Neumann algebras. Such a result allowed to establish a category theorem for uniformly ergodic Markov operators. We find necessary …
In this paper, the forgetting of the initial distribution for a non-ergodic Hidden Markov Models (HMM) is studied. A new set of conditions is proposed to establish the forgetting property of the filter, which significantly extends all the existing results. Both a pathwise-type convergence of the total variation distance of the filter started from two different initial distributions, and a convergence in expectation are considered. The results are illustrated using generic models of non-ergodic HMM and extend all the results known so far.
Previous work showed that all Bernoulli shifts over a free group are orbit-equivalent. This result is strengthened here by replacing Bernoulli shifts with the wider class of properly ergodic countable state Markov chains over a free group. A list of related open problems is provided.
In this paper, new conditions for the stability of V-geometrically ergodic Markov chains are introduced. The results are based on an extension of the standard perturbation theory formulated by Keller and Liverani. The continuity and higher regularity properties are investigated. As an illustration, an asymptotic expansion of the invariant probability measure for an autoregressive model with i.i.d. noises (with a non-standard probability density function) is obtained.
We study properties of the Laplace transforms of non-negative additive functionals of Markov chains. We are namely interested in a multiplicative ergodicity property used in [18] to study bifurcating processes with ancestral dependence. We develop a general approach based on the use of the operator perturbation method. We apply our general results to two examples of Markov chains, including a linear autoregressive model. In these two examples the operator-type assumptions reduce to some expected finite moment conditions on the functional (no exponential moment conditions are assumed in this wo…
Let $(S_n)_n$ be a $R^d$-valued random walk ($d\geq2$). Using Babillot's method [2], we give general conditions on the characteristic function of $S_n$ under which $(S_n)_n$ satisfies the same renewal theorem as the classical one obtained for random walks with i.i.d. non-centered increments. This statement is applied to additive functionals of strongly ergodic Markov chains under the non-lattice condition and (almost) optimal moment conditions.
New relations between ergodic rate, L_p convergence rates, and asymptotic behavior of tail probabilities for hitting times of a time homogeneous Markov process are established. For L_p convergence rates and related spectral and functional properties (spectral gap and Poincare inequality) sufficient conditions are given in the terms of an exponential ϕ-coupling. This provides sufficient conditions for L_p convergence rates in the terms of appropriate combination of `local mixing' and `recurrence' conditions on the initial process, typical in the ergodic theory of Markov processes. The range of …
In our earlier paper, a generalized Dobrushin ergodicity coefficient of Markov operators (acting on abstract state spaces) with respect to a projection $P$, has been introduced and studied. It turned out that the introduced coefficient was more effective than the usual ergodicity coefficient. In the present work, by means of a left consistent Markov projections and the generalized Dobrushin's ergodicity coefficient, we investigate uniform and weak $P$-ergodicities of non-homogeneous discrete Markov chains (NDMC) on abstract state spaces. It is easy to show that uniform $P$-ergodicity implies a…
We revisit functional central limit theorems for additive functionals of ergodic Markov diffusion processes. Translated in the language of partial differential equations of evolution, they appear as diffusion limits in the asymptotic analysis of Fokker-Planck type equations. We focus on the square integrable framework, and we provide tractable conditions on the infinitesimal generator, including degenerate or anomalously slow diffusions. We take advantage on recent developments in the study of the trend to the equilibrium of ergodic diffusions. We discuss examples and formulate open problems.
In this paper we prove a sharp quantitative version of the Kendall's Theorem. The Kendal Theorem states that under some mild conditions imposed on a probability distribution on positive integers (i.e. probabilistic sequence) one can prove convergence of its renewal sequence. Due to the well-known property - the first entrance last exit decomposition - such results are of interest in the stability theory of time homogeneous Markov chains. In particular the approach may be used to measure rates of convergence of geometrically ergodic Markov chains and consequently implies estimates on convergenc…
In this paper, we give a sufficient condition for the existence of a quasi-ergodic distribution for absorbing Markov processes. Using an orthogonal-polynomial approach, we prove that the previous main result is valid for the birth-death process on the nonnegative integers with 0 an absorbing boundary and $\infty$ an entrance boundary. We also show that the quasi-ergodic distribution is stochastically larger than the unique quasi-stationary distribution in the sense of monotone likelihood-ratio ordering for the birth-death process.
This paper consists of four parts. In the first part, we explain what eigenvalues we are interested in and show the difficulties of the study on the first (non-trivial) eigenvalue through examples. In the second part, we present some (dual) variational formulas and explicit bounds for the first eigenvalue of Laplacian on Riemannian manifolds or Jacobi matrices (Markov chains). Here, a probabilistic approach--the coupling methods is adopted. In the third part, we introduce recent lower bounds of several basic inequalities; these are based on a generalization of Cheeger's approach which comes fr…
We are interested in quasi-stationarity and quasi-ergodicity when the absorbing boundary is moving. First we show that, in the moving boundary case, the quasi-stationary distribution and the quasi-limiting distribution are not well-defined when the boundary is oscillating periodically. Then we show the existence of a quasi-ergodic distribution for any discrete-time irreducible Markov chain defined on a finite space state in the fixed boundary case. Finally we use this last result to show the quasi-ergodicity in the moving boundary case.
We show how to map the states of an ergodic Markov chain to Euclidean space so that the squared distance between states is the expected commuting time. We find a minimax characterization of commuting times, and from this we get monotonicity of commuting times with respect to equilibrium transition rates. All of these results are familiar in the case of time-reversible chains, where techniques of classical electrical theory apply. In presenting these results, we take the opportunity to develop Markov chain theory in a `conformally correct' way
This paper provides a general and abstract approach to approximate ergodic regimes of Markov and Feller processes. More precisely, we show that the recursive algorithm presented in Lamberton & Pages (2002) and based on simulation algorithms of stochastic schemes with decreasing step can be used to build invariant measures for general Markov and Feller processes. We also propose applications in three different configurations: Approximation of Markov switching Brownian diffusion ergodic regimes using Euler scheme, approximation of Markov Brownian diffusion ergodic regimes with Milstein scheme an…
Max-stable processes are central models for spatial extremes. In this paper, we focus on some space-time max-stable models introduced in Embrechts et al. (2016). The processes considered induce discrete-time Markov chains taking values in the space of continuous functions from the unit sphere of $\mathbb{R}^3$ to $(0, \infty)$. We show that these Markov chains are geometrically ergodic. An interesting feature lies in the fact that the state space is not locally compact, making the classical methodology inapplicable. Instead, we use the fact that the state space is Polish and apply results pres…
We study the ergodic behaviour of a discrete-time process $X$ which is a Markov chain in a stationary random environment. The laws of $X_t$ are shown to converge to a limiting law in (weighted) total variation distance as $t\to\infty$. Convergence speed is estimated and an ergodic theorem is established for functionals of $X$. Our hypotheses on $X$ combine the standard "small set" and "drift" conditions for geometrically ergodic Markov chains with conditions on the growth rate of a certain "maximal process" of the random environment. We are able to cover a wide range of models that have hereto…
In dimension $d\geq3$, we present a general assumption under which the renewal theorem established by Spitzer for i.i.d. sequences of centered nonlattice r.v. holds true. Next we appeal to an operator-type procedure to investigate the Markov case. Such a spectral approach has been already developed by Babillot, but the weak perturbation theorem of Keller and Liverani enables us to greatly weaken thehypotheses in terms of moment conditions. Our applications concern the v$-geometrically ergodic Markov chains, the $ρ$-mixing Markov chains, and the iterative Lipschitz models, for which the renewal…
We consider general Markov chains with discrete time in an arbitrary measurable (phase) space and homogeneous in time. Markov chains are defined by the classical transition function which within the framework of the operator treatment generates a conjugate pair of linear Markov operators in the Banach space of measurable bounded functions and in the Banach space of bounded finite additive measures. It is proved that the well-known Doeblin condition $ (D) $ of ergodicity (quasi\-compactness) of the Markov chain is equivalent to the condition $ (*) $: all finitely additive invariant measures of …
The goal of this paper is to develop a general method to establish conditional ergodicity of infinite-dimensional Markov chains. Given a Markov chain in a product space, we aim to understand the ergodic properties of its conditional distributions given one of the components. Such questions play a fundamental role in the ergodic theory of nonlinear filters. In the setting of Harris chains, conditional ergodicity has been established under general nondegeneracy assumptions. Unfortunately, Markov chains in infinite-dimensional state spaces are rarely amenable to the classical theory of Harris cha…
We consider a large family of discrete and continuous time controlled Markov processes and study an ergodic risk-sensitive minimization problem. Under a blanket stability assumption, we provide a complete analysis to this problem. In particular, we establish uniqueness of the value function and verification result for optimal stationary Markov controls, in addition to the existence results. We also revisit this problem under a near-monotonicity condition but without any stability hypothesis. Our results also include policy improvement algorithms both in discrete and continuous time frameworks.
Bifurcating Markov chains (BMC) are Markov chains indexed by a full binary tree representing the evolution of a trait along a population where each individual has two children. We provide a central limit theorem for additive functionals of BMC under $L^2$-ergodic conditions with three different regimes. This completes the pointwise approach developed in a previous work. As application, we study the elementary case of symmetric bifurcating autoregressive process, which justify the non-trivial hypothesis considered on the kernel transition of the BMC. We illustrate in this example the phase tran…
This paper deals with ergodic theorems for particular time-inhomogeneous Markov processes, whose the time-inhomogeneity is asymptotically periodic. Under a Lyapunov/minorization condition, it is shown that, for any measurable bounded function $f$, the time average $\frac{1}{t} \int_0^t f(X_s)ds$ converges in $\mathbb{L}^2$ towards a limiting distribution, starting from any initial distribution for the process $(X_t)_{t \geq 0}$. This convergence can be improved to an almost sure convergence under an additional assumption on the initial measure. This result will be then applied to show the exis…
