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arXiv 2103.12877astro-ph.EP
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具有小轨道覆盖的直接成像系外行星的轨道拟合偏差

Biases in orbit fitting of directly-imaged exoplanets with small orbital coverage

Rodrigo Ferrer-Chávez, Jason J. Wang, Sarah Blunt

摘要:

行星轨道的偏心率和轨道平面的倾角是关于其形成和历史的重要信息。然而,通过直接成像检测到的系外行星通常只在其周期的很小一部分内被观察到,这使得在广泛,不受约束的后验条件下进行可靠的物理推断具有挑战性。该项目的目的是调查在估计直接成像的系外行星的轨道参数,特别是其偏心率方面的偏差(后验中值和众数与轨道参数真实值的偏差,及其可信区间的宽度和覆盖范围),并确定一般准则,以便更好地估计不确定性。为此,我们构建了各种轨道,并为轨道周期的每个跨度$\sim 0.5 \%$生成模拟数据。我们使用轨道的不耐烦(OFTI)算法来计算轨道后验,并将其与轨道参数的真实值进行比较。我们发现轨道平面的倾角是最影响我们对偏心率估计的参数,出现在边缘附近的轨道产生偏离真实值的偏心率分布,并且通常是双峰的。我们还确定了偏心率和倾斜度之间的简并性,这使得难以区分面对偏心轨道和边缘圆形轨道的后验。对于系外行星成像社区,我们提出了实用的建议,指导方针和警告相关的轨道拟合。

英文摘要:

The eccentricity of a planet's orbit and the inclination of its orbital plane encode important information about its formation and history. However, exoplanets detected via direct-imaging are often only observed over a very small fraction of their period, making it challenging to perform reliable physical inferences given wide, unconstrained posteriors. The aim of this project is to investigate biases (deviation of the median and mode of the posterior from the true values of orbital parameters, and the width and coverage of their credible intervals) in the estimation of orbital parameters of directly-imaged exoplanets, particularly their eccentricities, and to define general guidelines to perform better estimations of uncertainty. For this, we constructed various orbits and generated mock data for each spanning $\sim 0.5 \%$ of the orbital period. We used the Orbits For The Impatient (OFTI) algorithm to compute orbit posteriors, and compared those to the true values of the orbital parameters. We found that the inclination of the orbital plane is the parameter that most affects our estimations of eccentricity, with orbits that appear near edge-on producing eccentricity distributions skewed away from the true values, and often bi-modal. We also identified a degeneracy between eccentricity and inclination that makes it difficult to distinguish posteriors of face-on, eccentric orbits and edge-on, circular orbits. For the exoplanet-imaging community, we propose practical recommendations, guidelines and warnings relevant to orbit-fitting.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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