In this paper, we prove a function field-analogue of Poonen-Rains heuristics on the average size of $p$-Selmer group. Let $E$ be an elliptic curve defined over $\mathbb{Z}[t]$. Then $E$ is also defined over $\mathbb{F}_q$ for any $q$ of prime power. We show that for large enough $q$, the average size of the $p$-Selmer groups over the family of quadratic twists of $E$ over $\mathbb{F}_q[t]$ is equal to $p+1$ for all but finitely many primes $p$. Namely, if we twist the curve in $\mathbb{F}_q[t]$ by polynomials of fixed degree $n$ and let both $n$ and $q$ approach to infinity, then the average rank of $p$-Selmer group converges to $p+1$.
We prove that when all elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ are ordered by height, the average size of their 4-Selmer groups is equal to 7. As a consequence, we show that a positive proportion (in fact, at least one fifth) of all 2-Selmer elements of elliptic curves, when ordered by height, do not lift to 4-Selmer elements, and thus correspond to nontrivial 2-torsion elements in the associated Tate--Shafarevich groups.
We consider elliptic curves over global fields of positive characteristic with two distinct marked non-trivial rational points. Restricting to a certain subfamily of the universal one, we show that the average size of the 2-Selmer groups of these curves exists, in a natural sense, and equals 12. Along the way, we consider a map from these 2-Selmer groups to the moduli space of $G$-torsors over an algebraic curve, where $G$ is isogenous to $\mathrm{SL}_2^4$, and show that the images of 2-Selmer elements under this map become equidistributed in the limit.
The elliptic curve $E_k \colon y^2 = x^3 + k$ admits a natural 3-isogeny $ϕ_k \colon E_k \to E_{-27k}$. We compute the average size of the $ϕ_k$-Selmer group as $k$ varies over the integers. Unlike previous results of Bhargava and Shankar on $n$-Selmer groups of elliptic curves, we show that this average can be very sensitive to congruence conditions on $k$; this sensitivity can be precisely controlled by the Tamagawa numbers of $E_k$ and $E_{-27k}$. As consequences, we prove that the average rank of the curves $E_k$, $k\in\mathbb Z$, is less than 1.21 and over $23\%$ (resp. $41\%$) of the cur…
We consider the family of hyperelliptic curves over $\Q$ of fixed genus along with a marked rational Weierstrass point and a marked rational non-Weierstrass point. When these curves are ordered by height, we prove that the average Mordell-Weil rank of their Jacobians is bounded above by 5/2. We prove this by showing that the average rank of the 2-Selmer groups is bounded above by 6. We also prove that the average size of the $ϕ$-Selmer groups of a family of isogenies associated to this family is exactly 2.
In this paper, we prove that when elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ are ordered by height, the second moment of the size of the $2$-Selmer group is at most $15$. This confirms a conjecture of Poonen and Rains.
A generalization of the congruent number problem is to find positive integers $n$ that appear as the areas of Heron triangles. Selmer group of a congruent number elliptic curve has been studied quite extensively. Here, we look into the $2$-Selmer group structure for Heronian elliptic curves associated with Heron triangles of area $n$ and one of the angle $θ$ such that $\tan \fracθ{2} = n^{-1}$ and $n^{2}+1=2q$ for some prime $q$.
In this article, we prove that the average rank of elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$, when ordered by height, is less than $1$ (in fact, less than $.885$). As a consequence of our methods, we also prove that at least four fifths of all elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ have rank either 0 or 1; furthermore, at least one fifth of all elliptic curves in fact have rank 0. The primary ingredient in the proofs of these theorems is a determination of the average size of the $5$-Selmer group of elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$; we prove that this average size is $6$. Another key ingredient is a new l…
Employing a geometric setting inspired by the proof of the Fundamental Lemma, we study some counting problems related to the average size of 2-Selmer groups and hence obtain an estimate for it.
We show, in the large $q$ limit, that the average size of $n$-Selmer groups of elliptic curves of bounded height over $\mathbb F_q(t)$ is the sum of the divisors of $n$. As a corollary, again in the large $q$ limit, we deduce that $100\%$ of elliptic curves of bounded height over $\mathbb F_q(t)$ have rank $0$ or $1$.
In this paper, we are going to compute the average size of 2-Selmer groups of families of even hyperelliptic curves over function fields. The result will be obtained by a geometric method which is based on a Vinberg representation of the group $G=\text{PSO}(2n+2)$ and a Hitchin fibration. Consistent with the result over Q of Arul Shankar and Xiaoheng Wang [Rational points on hyperelliptic curves having a marked non-Weierstrass point, in Compos. Math., 154(1):188-222, 2018], we provide an upper bound and a lower bound of the average. However, if we restrict to the family of transversal hyperell…
We continue the investigation of the distribution of $\ell^{\infty}$-Selmer groups in degree $\ell$ twist families of Galois modules over number fields begun in the previous paper. Building off the work on higher Selmer groups in that part, we find conditions under which we can compute the distribution of the $\ell^{\infty}$-Selmer groups for a given degree $\ell$ twist family. Along the way, we show that the average rank in the quadratic twist family of any given abelian variety over a number field is bounded.
We take an approach toward counting the number of n for which the curves E_n: y^2=x^3-n^2x have 2-Selmer groups of a given size. This question was also discussed in a pair of Invent. Math. papers by Roger Heath-Brown. We discuss the connection between computing the size of these Selmer groups and verifying cases of the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture. The key ingredient for the asymptotic formulae is the ``independence'' of the Legendre symbol evaluated at the prime divisors of an integer with exactly k prime factors.
For an abelian variety $A$ over a number field $F$, we prove that the average rank of the quadratic twists of $A$ is bounded, under the assumption that the multiplication-by-3 isogeny on $A$ factors as a composition of 3-isogenies over $F$. This is the first such boundedness result for an absolutely simple abelian variety $A$ of dimension greater than one. In fact, we exhibit such twist families in arbitrarily large dimension and over any number field. In dimension one, we deduce that if $E/F$ is an elliptic curve admitting a 3-isogeny, then the average rank of its quadratic twists is bounded.…
In 2016, Balakrishnan-Ho-Kaplan-Spicer-Stein-Weigandt produced a database of elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ ordered by height in which they computed the rank, the size of the $2$-Selmer group, and other arithmetic invariants. They observed that after a certain point, the average rank seemed to decrease as the height increased. Here we consider the family of elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ whose rational torsion subgroup is isomorphic to $\mathbb{Z}/2\mathbb{Z} \times \mathbb{Z}/8\mathbb{Z}$. Conditional on GRH and BSD, we compute the rank of $92\%$ of the $202461$ curves with parameter he…
We prove that when all hyperelliptic curves of genus $n\geq 1$ having a rational Weierstrass point are ordered by height, the average size of the 2-Selmer group of their Jacobians is equal to 3. It follows that (the limsup of) the average rank of the Mordell-Weil group of their Jacobians is at most 3/2. The method of Chabauty can then be used to obtain an effective bound on the number of rational points on most of these hyperelliptic curves; for example, we show that a majority of hyperelliptic curves of genus $n\geq 3$ with a rational Weierstrass point have fewer than 20 rational points.
We show that the average size of the $2$-Selmer group of the family of Jacobians of non-hyperelliptic genus-$3$ curves with a marked rational hyperflex point, when ordered by a natural height, is bounded above by $3$. We achieve this by interpreting $2$-Selmer elements as integral orbits of a representation associated with a stable $\mathbb{Z}/2\mathbb{Z}$-grading on the Lie algebra of type $E_6$ and using Bhargava's orbit-counting techniques. We use this result to show that the marked point is the only rational point for a positive proportion of curves in this family. The main novelties are t…
We define Kolyvagin systems and Stark systems attached to $p$-adic representations in the case of arbitrary `core rank' (the core rank is a measure of the generic Selmer rank in a family of Selmer groups). Previous work dealt only with the case of core rank one, where the Kolyvagin and Stark systems are collections of cohomology classes. For general core rank, they are collections of elements of exterior powers of cohomology groups. We show under mild hypotheses that for general core rank these systems still control the size and structure of Selmer groups, and that the module of all Kolyvagin …
In [5], Manjul Bhargava and Benedict Gross considered the family of hyperelliptic curves over $\Q$ having a fixed genus and a marked rational Weierstrass point. They showed that the average size of the 2-Selmer group of the Jacobians of these curves, when ordered by height, is 3. In this paper, we consider the family of hyperelliptic curves over $\Q$ having a fixed genus and a marked rational non-Weierstrass point. We show that when these curves are ordered by height, the average size of the 2-Selmer group of their Jacobians is 6. This yields an upper bound of 5/2 on the average rank of the Mo…
Let $F$ be a number field unramified at an odd prime $p$ and $F_\infty$ be the $\mathbf{Z}_p$-cyclotomic extension of $F$. Generalizing Kobayashi plus/minus Selmer groups for elliptic curves, Büyükboduk and Lei have defined modified Selmer groups, called signed Selmer groups, for certain non-ordinary $\mathrm{Gal}(\overline{F}/F)$-representations. In particular, their construction applies to abelian varieties defined over $F$ with good supersingular reduction at primes of $F$ dividing $p$. Assuming that these Selmer groups are cotorsion $\mathbf{Z}_p[[\mathrm{Gal}(F_\infty/F)]]$-modules, we sh…
Most systematic tables of data associated to ranks of elliptic curves order the curves by conductor. Recent developments, led by work of Bhargava-Shankar studying the average sizes of $n$-Selmer groups, have given new upper bounds on the average algebraic rank in families of elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ ordered by height. We describe databases of elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ ordered by height in which we compute ranks and $2$-Selmer group sizes, the distributions of which may also be compared to these theoretical results. A striking new phenomenon observed in these databases is that …
In recent work, Bhargava and Shankar have shown that the average size of the $2$-Selmer group of an elliptic curve over $\mathbb{Q}$ is exactly $3$, and Bhargava and Ho have shown that the average size of the $2$-Selmer group in the family of elliptic curves with a marked point is exactly $6$. In contrast to these results, we show that the average size of the $2$-Selmer group in the family of elliptic curves with a two-torsion point is unbounded. In particular, the existence of a two-torsion point implies the existence of rational isogeny. A fundamental quantity attached to a pair of isogenous…
We determine average sizes/bounds for the $2$- and $3$-Selmer groups in various families of elliptic curves with marked points, thus confirming several cases of the Poonen--Rains heuristics. As a consequence, we deduce that the average ranks of the elliptic curves in all of these families are bounded. Our proofs are uniform and make use of parametrizations involving various forms of $2 \times 2 \times 2 \times 2$ and $3 \times 3 \times 3$ matrices that we studied in a previous paper. We also deduce that $100\%$ of genus one curves of the form $y^2 = Ax^4 + Bx^2 z^2 + Cz^4$ with $A, B, C \in \m…
Given a modular form f of even weight larger than two and an imaginary quadratic field K satisfying a relaxed Heegner hypothesis, we construct a collection of CM cycles on a Kuga-Sato variety over a suitable Shimura curve which gives rise to a system of Galois cohomology classes attached to f enjoying the compatibility properties of an Euler system. Then we use Kolyvagin's method, as adapted by Nekovar to higher weight modular forms, to bound the size of the relevant Selmer group associated to f and K and prove the finiteness of the (primary part) of the Shafarevich-Tate group, provided that a…
Under suitable hypotheses, we construct a probability measure on the set of closed maximal isotropic subspaces of a locally compact quadratic space over F_p. A random subspace chosen with respect to this measure is discrete with probability 1, and the dimension of its intersection with a fixed compact open maximal isotropic subspace is a certain nonnegative-integer-valued random variable. We then prove that the p-Selmer group of an elliptic curve is naturally the intersection of a discrete maximal isotropic subspace with a compact open maximal isotropic subspace in a locally compact quadratic …
Let p be a prime number and M a quadratic number field, M not equal to Q(\sqrt{p}) if p is congruent to 1 modulo 4. We will prove that for any positive integer d there exists a Galois extension F/Q with Galois group D_{2p} and an elliptic curve E/Q such that F contains M and the p-Selmer group of E/F has size at least p^d.
We prove the first known nontrivial bounds on the sizes of the 2-torsion subgroups of the class groups of cubic and higher degree number fields $K$ (the trivial bound being $O_ε(|{\rm Disc}(K)|^{1/2+ε})$ by Brauer--Siegel). This yields corresponding improvements to: 1) bounds of Brumer and Kramer on the sizes of 2-Selmer groups and ranks of elliptic curves; 2) bounds of Helfgott and Venkatesh on the number of integral points on elliptic curves; 3) bounds on the sizes of 2-Selmer groups and ranks of Jacobians of hyperelliptic curves; and 4) bounds of Baily and Wong on the number of $A_4$-quarti…
We study the average behaviour of the Iwasawa invariants for the Selmer groups of elliptic curves, setting out new directions in arithmetic statistics and Iwasawa theory.
We consider a family of abelian surfaces over $\mathbb{Q}$ arising as Prym varieties of double covers of genus-$1$ curves by genus-$3$ curves. These abelian surfaces carry a polarization of type $(1,2)$ and we show that the average size of the Selmer group of this polarization equals $3$. Moreover we show that the average size of the $2$-Selmer group of the abelian surfaces in the same family is bounded above by $5$. This implies an upper bound on the average rank of these Prym varieties, and gives evidence for the heuristics of Poonen and Rains for a family of abelian varieties which are not …
We prove a generalization of a result of Bhargava regarding the average size $\mathrm{Cl}(K)[2]$ as $K$ varies among cubic fields. For a fixed set of rational primes $S$, we obtain a formula for the average size of $\mathrm{Cl}(K)/\langle S \rangle[2]$ as $K$ varies among cubic fields with a fixed signature, where $\langle S \rangle$ is the subgroup of $\mathrm{Cl}(K)$ generated by the classes of primes of $K$ above primes in $S$. As a consequence, we are able to calculate the average sizes of $K_{2n}(\mathcal{O}_K)[2]$ for $n > 0$ and for the relaxed Selmer group $\mathrm{Sel}_2^S(K)$ as $K$ …
We prove a theorem giving the asymptotic number of binary quartic forms having bounded invariants; this extends, to the quartic case, the classical results of Gauss and Davenport in the quadratic and cubic cases, respectively. Our techniques are quite general, and may be applied to counting integral orbits in other representations of algebraic groups. We use these counting results to prove that the average rank of elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$, when ordered by their heights, is bounded. In particular, we show that when elliptic curves are ordered by height, the mean size of the 2-Selmer gr…
Bhargava and Shankar prove that as E varies over all elliptic curves over Q, the average rank of the finitely generated abelian group E(Q) is bounded. This result follows from an exact formula for the average size of the 2-Selmer group, which in turn follows from an asymptotic formula for the number of binary quartic forms over Z with bounded invariants. We explain their proof, as well as other arithmetic applications.
We prove an asymptotic formula for the number of ${\rm SL}_3({\mathbb Z})$-equivalence classes of integral ternary cubic forms having bounded invariants. We use this result to show that the average size of the 3-Selmer group of all elliptic curves, when ordered by height, is 4. This implies that the average rank of all elliptic curves, when ordered by height, is less than 1.17. Combining our counting techniques with a recent result of Dokchitser and Dokchitser, we prove that a positive proportion of all elliptic curves have rank 0. Assuming the finiteness of the Tate-Shafarevich group, we also…
A coregular space is a representation of an algebraic group for which the ring of polynomial invariants is free. In this paper, we show that the orbits of many coregular irreducible representations where the number of invariants is at least two, over a (not necessarily algebraically closed) field k, correspond to genus one curves over k together with line bundles, vector bundles, and/or points on their Jacobians. In forthcoming work, we use these orbit parametrizations to determine the average sizes of Selmer groups for various families of elliptic curves.
