General Markov chains in an arbitrary phase space are considered in the framework of the operator treatment. Markov operators continue from the space of countably additive measures to the space of finitely additive measures. Cycles of measures generated by the corresponding operator are constructed, and algebraic operations on them are introduced. One of the main results obtained is that any cycle of finitely additive measures can be uniquely decomposed into the coordinate-wise sum of a cycle of countably additive measures and a cycle of purely finitely additive measures.We have proved theorems on the conditions and consequences of consistency cycles of measures with cycles of sets of states of General Markov chains. A theorem is proved (under certain conditions) that if a finitely additive cycle of a Markov chain is unique, then it is countably additive.
We consider general Markov chains with discrete time in an arbitrary measurable (phase) space and homogeneous in time. Markov chains are defined by the classical transition function which within the framework of the operator treatment generates a conjugate pair of linear Markov operators in the Banach space of measurable bounded functions and in the Banach space of bounded finite additive measures. It is proved that the well-known Doeblin condition $ (D) $ of ergodicity (quasi\-compactness) of the Markov chain is equivalent to the condition $ (*) $: all finitely additive invariant measures of …
General Markov chains with a countably additive transition probability in arbitrary phase space are considered. Markov operators extend from the space of countably additive measures to the space of finitely additive measures. In the author's papers a theorem was earlier proved that if all invariant finitely additive measures of a Markov chain are countably additive, i.e. there are no invariant purely finitely additive measures, then their subspace is finite-dimensional and the Markov chain satisfies the Doob-Doeblin quasicompactness conditions. In the same paper, a partial inversion of this th…
The concept of finitely additive supermartingales, originally due to Bochner, is revived and developed. We exploit it to study measure decompositions over filtered probability spaces and the properties of the associated Doléans-Dade measure. We obtain versions of the Doob Meyer decomposition and, as an application, we establish a version of the Bichteler and Dellacherie theorem with no exogenous probability measure.
In this paper, we consider general Markov chains (MC), specified by the transition probability (kernel) $ P (x, E) $, finitely additive in the second argument. Such MC are studied within the framework of the functional operator treatment. The state space (phase space) of the MC $ X $ has any cardinality, and the sigma-algebra $ Σ$ is discrete, i.e. is the set of all subsets in $ X $. This construction of the phase space $ (X, Σ) $ allows us to decompose the Markov kernel $ P (x, E) $ into the sum of two components - countably additive and purely finitely additive in the second argument and mea…
In this paper, we study Markov chains (MC) on topological spaces within the framework of the operator approach. We extend the Markov operator from the space of countably additive measures to the space of finitely additive measures. Cesaro means for a Markov sequence of measures and their asymptotic behavior in the weak topology are considered. It is proved ergodic theorem that in order for the Cesaro means to converge weakly to some bounded regular finitely additive (or countably additive) measure it is necessary and sufficient that all invariant finitely additive measures are not separable fr…
We consider, and make precise, a certain extension of the Radon-Nikodym derivative operator, to functions which are additive, but not necessarily sigma-additive, on a subset of a given sigma-algebra. We give applications to probability theory; in particular, to the study of $μ$-Brownian motion, to stochastic calculus via generalized Itô-integrals, and their adjoints (in the form of generalized stochastic derivatives), to systems of transition probability operators indexed by families of measures $μ$, and to adjoints of composition operators.
Let $L$ be a linear space of real bounded random variables on the probability space $(Ω,\mathcal{A},P_0)$. There is a finitely additive probability $P$ on $\mathcal{A}$, such that $P\sim P_0$ and $E_P(X)=0$ for all $X\in L$, if and only if $c\,E_Q(X)\leq\text{ess sup}(-X)$, $X\in L$, for some constant $c>0$ and (countably additive) probability $Q$ on $\mathcal{A}$ such that $Q\sim P_0$. A necessary condition for such a $P$ to exist is $\bar{L-L_\infty^+}\,\cap L_\infty^+=\{0\}$, where the closure is in the norm-topology. If $P_0$ is atomic, the condition is sufficient as well. In addition, the…
Some classical mass transportation problems are investigated in a finitely additive setting. Let $Ω=\prod_{i=1}^nΩ_i$ and $\mathcal{A}=\otimes_{i=1}^n\mathcal{A}_i$, where $(Ω_i,\mathcal{A}_i,μ_i)$ is a ($σ$-additive) probability space for $i=1,\ldots,n$. Let $c:Ω\rightarrow [0,\infty]$ be an $\mathcal{A}$-measurable cost function. Let $M$ be the collection of finitely additive probabilities on $\mathcal{A}$ with marginals $μ_1,\ldots,μ_n$. If couplings are meant as elements of $M$, most classical results of mass transportation theory, including duality and attainability of the Kantorovich inf…
In this paper we study the almost sure central limit theorem started from a point for additive functionals of a stationary and ergodic Markov chain via a martingale approximation in the almost sure sense. As a consequence we derive the quenched CLT for additive functionals or reversible Markov chains.
An asymptotic expansion is established for time averages of translation flows on flat surfaces. This result, which extends earlier work of A.Zorich and G.Forni, yields limit theorems for translation flows. The argument, close in spirit to that of G.Forni, uses the approximation of ergodic integrals by holonomy-invariant Hoelder cocycles on trajectories of the flows. The space of holonomy-invariant Hoelder cocycles is finite-dimensional, and is given by an explicit construction. First, a symbolic representation for a uniquely ergodic translation flow is obtained following S.Ito and A.M. Vershik…
In the paper, the law of the iterated logarithm for additive functionals of Markov chains is obtained under some weak conditions, which are weaker than the conditions of invariance principle of additive functionals of Markov chains in M. Maxwell and M. Woodroofe (2000). The main technique is the martingale argument and the theory of fractional coboundaries.
The probabilistic type spaces in the sense of Harsanyi [Management Sci. 14 (1967/68) 159--182, 320--334, 486--502] are the prevalent models used to describe interactive uncertainty. In this paper we examine the existence of a universal type space when beliefs are described by finitely additive probability measures. We find that in the category of all type spaces that satisfy certain measurability conditions ($κ$-measurability, for some fixed regular cardinal $κ$), there is a universal type space (i.e., a terminal object) to which every type space can be mapped in a unique beliefs-preserving wa…
We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for convergence of exponential integrals of Markov additive processes. Other than in the classical Lévy case studied by Erickson and Maller we have to distinguish between almost sure convergence and convergence in probability. Our proofs rely on recent results on perpetuities in a Markovian environment by Alsmeyer and Buckmann.
In this paper, we prove Strassen's strong invariance principle for a vector-valued additive functionals of a Markov chain via the martingale argument and the theory of fractional coboundaries. The hypothesis is a moment bound on the resolvent.
We prove the Wiener-Hopf factorization for Markov Additive processes. We derive also Spitzer-Rogozin theorem for this class of processes which serves for obtaining Kendall's formula and Fristedt representation of the cumulant matrix of the ladder epoch process. Finally, we also obtain the so-called ballot theorem.
We consider a sequence of additive functionals {ϕ_n}, set on a sequence of Markov chains {X_n} that weakly converges to a Markov process X. We give sufficient condition for such a sequence to converge in distribution, formulated in terms of the characteristics of the additive functionals, and related to the Dynkin's theorem on the convergence of W-functionals. As an application of the main theorem, the general sufficient condition for convergence of additive functionals in terms of transition probabilities of the chains X_n is proved.
We give an example of a transient reversible Markov chain that almost surely has only a finite number of cutpoints. We explain how this is relevant to a conjecture of Diaconis and Freedman and a question of Kaimanovich. We also answer Kaimanovich's question when the Markov chain is a nearest-neighbor random walk on a tree.
In this paper we study the additive functionals of Markov chains via conditioning with respect to both past and future of the chain. We shall point out new sufficient projective conditions, which assure that the variance of partial sums of n consecutive random variables of a stationary Markov chain is linear in n. The paper also addresses the central limit theorem problem and is listing several open questions.
We prove an invariance principle (functional central limit theorem) for a vector-valued additive functional of a Markov chain for almost every starting point with respect to an ergodic equilibrium distribution. The hypothesis is a moment bound on the resolvent.
Consider a one-sided Markov additive process with an upper and a lower barrier, where each can be either reflecting or terminating. For both defective and non-defective processes and all possible scenarios we identify the corresponding potential measures, which generalizes a number of results for one-sided Levy processes. The resulting rather neat formulas have various applications, and in particular they lead to quasi-stationary distributions of the corresponding processes.
In this paper we study the central limit theorem for additive functionals of stationary Markov chains with general state space by using a new idea involving conditioning with respect to both the past and future of the chain. Practically, we show that any additive functionals of a stationary and totally ergodic Markov chain with the variance of S_n divided by n uniformly bounded, satisfies a square root central limit theorem with a random centering. We do not assume that the Markov chain is irreducible and aperiodic. However, the random centering is not needed if the Markov chain satisfies stro…
We study properties of the Laplace transforms of non-negative additive functionals of Markov chains. We are namely interested in a multiplicative ergodicity property used in [18] to study bifurcating processes with ancestral dependence. We develop a general approach based on the use of the operator perturbation method. We apply our general results to two examples of Markov chains, including a linear autoregressive model. In these two examples the operator-type assumptions reduce to some expected finite moment conditions on the functional (no exponential moment conditions are assumed in this wo…
We study the exponential growth of bifurcating processes with ancestral dependence. We suppose here that the lifetimes of the cells are dependent random variables, that the numbers of new cells are random and dependent. Lifetimes and new cells's numbers are also assumed to be dependent. We illustrate our results by examples, including some Markov models. Our approach is related to the behaviour of the Laplace transform of nonnegative additive functional of Markov chains and require weak moment assumption (no exponential moment is needed).
Using the renewal approach we prove exponential inequalities for additive functionals and empirical processes of ergodic Markov chains, thus obtaining counterparts of inequalities for sums of independent random variables. The inequalities do not require functions of the chain to be bounded and moreover all the involved constants are given by explicit formulas whenever the usual drift condition holds, which may be of interest in practical applications e.g. to MCMC algorithms.
In this paper we derive non asymptotic deviation bounds for $$¶_ν(|\frac 1t \int_0^t V(X_s) ds - \int V dμ| \geq R)$$ where $X$ is a $μ$ stationary and ergodic Markov process and $V$ is some $μ$ integrable function. These bounds are obtained under various moments assumptions for $V$, and various regularity assumptions for $μ$. Regularity means here that $μ$ may satisfy various functional inequalities (F-Sobolev, generalized Poincaré etc...).
Using the renewal approach we prove Bernstein-like inequalities for additive functionals of geometrically ergodic Markov chains, thus obtaining counterparts of inequalities for sums of independent random variables. The coefficient in the sub-Gaussian part of our estimate is the asymptotic variance of the additive functional, i.e. the variance of the limiting Gaussian variable in the Central Limit Theorem for Markov chains. This refines earlier results by R. Adamczak and W. Bednorz, which were obtained under the additional assumption of strong aperiodicity of the chain.
We revisit functional central limit theorems for additive functionals of ergodic Markov diffusion processes. Translated in the language of partial differential equations of evolution, they appear as diffusion limits in the asymptotic analysis of Fokker-Planck type equations. We focus on the square integrable framework, and we provide tractable conditions on the infinitesimal generator, including degenerate or anomalously slow diffusions. We take advantage on recent developments in the study of the trend to the equilibrium of ergodic diffusions. We discuss examples and formulate open problems.
We provide results relating to the integrability, uniform integrability and local integrability of exponential MAPs, which are natural extensions of exponential Levy models. Then, we use Mellin transform and partial integro-differential equation methods to value European options under a such a model. Finally, a comparison is made between the price of a European call option and that of an Asian call option.
For a Harris ergodic Markov chain $(X_n)_{n\ge 0}$, on a general state space, started from the so called small measure or from the stationary distribution we provide optimal estimates for Orlicz norms of sums $\sum_{i=0}^τf(X_i)$, where $τ$ is the first regeneration time of the chain. The estimates are expressed in terms of other Orlicz norms of the function $f$ (wrt the stationary distribution) and the regeneration time $τ$ (wrt the small measure). We provide applications to tail estimates for additive functionals of the chain $(X_n)$ generated by unbounded functions as well as to classical l…
In this paper we consider an additive functional of an observable $V(x)$ of a Markov jump process. We assume that the law of the expected jump time $t(x)$ under the invariant probability measure $π$ of the skeleton chain belongs to the domain of attraction of a subordinator. Then, the scaled limit of the functional is a Mittag-Leffler proces, provided that $Ψ(x):=V(x)t(x)$ is square integrable w.r.t. $π$. When the law of $Ψ(x)$ belongs to a domain of attraction of a stable law the resulting process can be described by a composition of a stable process and the inverse of a subordinator and thes…
In this paper, we are concerned with centered Markov Additive Processes $\{(X_t,Y_t)\}_{t\in\T}$ where the driving Markov process $\{X_t\}_{t\in\T}$ has a finite state space. Under suitable conditions, we provide a local limit theorem for the density of the absolutely continuous part of the probability distribution of $t^{-1/2}Y_t$ given $X_0$. The rate of convergence and the moment condition are the expected ones with respect to the i.i.d case. An application to the joint distribution of local times of a finite jump process is sketched.
We derive the Markov-modulated generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process by embedding a Markov-modulated random recurrence equation in continuous time. The obtained process turns out to be the unique solution of a certain stochastic differential equation driven by a bivariate Markov-additive process. We present this stochastic differential equation as well as its solution explicitely in terms of the driving Markov-additive process. Moreover, we give necessary and sufficient conditions for strict stationarity of the Markov-modulated generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, and prove that its statio…
Motivated by a risk process with positive and negative premium rates, we consider a real-valued Markov additive process with finitely many background states. This additive process linearly increases or decreases while the background state is unchanged, and may have upward jumps at the transition instants of the background state. It is known that the hitting probabilities of this additive process at lower levels have a matrix exponential form. We here study the hitting probabilities at upper levels, which do not have a matrix exponential form in general. These probabilities give the ruin probab…
In this paper we consider the first passage process of a spectrally negative Markov additive process (MAP). The law of this process is uniquely characterized by a certain matrix function, which plays a crucial role in fluctuation theory. We show how to identify this matrix using the theory of Jordan chains associated with analytic matrix functions. Importantly, our result also provides us with a technique, which can be used to derive various further identities. We then proceed to show how to compute the stationary distribution associated with a one-sided reflected (at zero) MAP for both the sp…
In this paper we solve the exit problems for an one-sided Markov additive process (MAP) which is exponentially killed with a bivariate killing intensity $ω(\cdot,\cdot)$ dependent on the present level of the process and the present state of the environment. Moreover, we analyze respective resolvents. All identities are given in terms of new generalizations of classical scale matrices for the MAP. We also remark on a number of applications of the obtained identities to (controlled) insurance risk processes. In particular, we show that our results can be applied to the so-called Omega model, whe…
We consider additive functionals of Markov processes in continuous time with general (metric) state spaces. We derive concentration bounds for their exponential moments and moments of finite order. Applications include diffusions, interacting particle systems and random walks. The method is based on coupling estimates and not spectral theory, hence reversibility is not needed. We bound the exponential moments(or the moments of finite order) in terms of a so-called coupled function difference, which in turn is estimated using the generalized coupling time. Along the way we prove a general relat…
We prove that every Markov solution to the three dimensional Navier-Stokes equation with periodic boundary conditions driven by additive Gaussian noise is uniquely ergodic. The convergence to the (unique) invariant measure is exponentially fast. Moreover, we give a well-posedness criterion for the equations in terms of invariant measures. We also analyse the energy balance and identify the term which ensures equality in the balance.
IIn this paper we provide predictable and chaotic representations for Itô-Markov additive processes $X$. Such a process is governed by a finite-state CTMC $J$ which allows one to modify the parameters of the Itô-jump process (in so-called regime switching manner). In addition, the transition of $J$ triggers the jump of $X$ distributed depending on the states of $J$ just prior to the transition. This family of processes includes Markov modulated Itô-Lévy processes and Markov additive processes. The derived chaotic representation of a square-integrable random variable is given as a sum of stocha…
Previous authors have considered optimal stopping problems driven by the running maximum of a spectrally negative Lévy process $X$, as well as of a one-dimensional diffusion. Many of the aforementioned results are either implicitly or explicitly dependent on Peskir's maximality principle. In this article, we are interested in understanding how some of the main ideas from these previous works can be brought into the setting of problems driven by the maximum of a class of Markov additive processes (more precisely Markov modulated Lévy processes). Similarly to previous works in the Lévy setting, …
The recent study by B. De Bruyne, S. N. Majumdar, H. Orland and G. Schehr [arXiv:2110.07573], concerning the conditioning of the Brownian motion and of random walks on global dynamical constraints over a finite time-window $T$, is reformulated as a general framework for the 'microcanonical conditioning' of Markov processes on time-additive observables. This formalism is applied to various types of Markov processes, namely discrete-time Markov chains, continuous-time Markov jump processes and diffusion processes in arbitrary dimension. In each setting, the time-additive observable is also fully…
We consider a Markov additive process with a finite phase space and study its path decompositions at the times of extrema, first passage and last exit. For these three families of times we establish splitting conditional on the phase, and provide various relations between the laws of post- and pre-splitting processes using time reversal. These results offer valuable insight into behavior of the process, and while being structurally similar to the Lévy process case, they demonstrate various new features. As an application we formulate the Wiener-Hopf factorization, where time is counted in each…
A Markov Additive Process is a bi-variate Markov process $(ξ,J)=\big((ξ_t,J_t),t\geq0\big)$ which should be thought of as a multi-type Lévy process: the second component $J$ is a Markov chain on a finite space $\{1,\ldots,K\}$, and the first component $ξ$ behaves locally as a Lévy process, with local dynamics depending on $J$. In the subordinator-like case where $ξ$ is nondecreasing, we establish several results concerning the moments of $ξ$ and of its exponential functional $I_ξ=\int_{0}^{\infty} e^{-ξ_t}\mathrm dt,$ extending the work of Carmona et al., and Bertoin and Yor. We then apply the…
Motivated by various applications, we describe the scaling limits of bivariate Markov chains $(X,J)$ on $\mathbb Z_+ \times \{1,\ldots,κ\}$ where $X$ can be viewed as a position marginal and $\{1,\ldots,κ\}$ is a set of $κ$ types. The chain starts from an initial value $(n,i)\in \mathbb Z_+ \times \{1,\ldots,κ\}$, with $i$ fixed and $n \rightarrow \infty$, and typically we will assume that the macroscopic jumps of the marginal $X$ are rare, i.e. arrive with a probability proportional to a negative power of the current state. We also assume that $X$ is non-increasing. We then observe different …
