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arXiv 2008.07336cs.CYcs.MAcs.SIphysics.soc-phq-bio.PE
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使用基于代理的模型探索COVID-19联系人追踪应用程序的有效性

Exploring the effectiveness of a COVID-19 contact tracing app using an agent-based model

Jonatan Almagor, Stefano Picascia

摘要:

在放宽封锁措施后,我们认为有必要采取接触者追踪策略,以遏制COVID-19的传播。使用基于代理的模型,我们探索了所提出的基于技术的策略之一,一个接触追踪智能手机应用程序。该模型模拟了COVID-19在城市规模的代理人群中的传播。代理人的特征是异质的,并在代表社会结构的多层网络中联系在一起-包括家庭,友谊,就业和学校。我们探讨了接触者追踪应用程序的各种采用率,不同水平的测试能力和行为因素之间的相互作用,以评估对疫情的影响。结果表明,当伴随着足够的检测能力或当检测政策优先考虑有症状的病例时,接触者追踪应用程序可以大大有助于降低人群的感染率。随着使用率的增加,感染率下降。因此,当有症状的病例没有被优先考虑进行测试时,应用程序用户的高比率可能会导致测试需求的广泛增加,如果没有足够的供应,可能会使应用程序适得其反。这表明了有效的测试政策的关键作用和提高测试能力的必要性。

英文摘要:

A contact-tracing strategy has been deemed necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 following the relaxation of lockdown measures. Using an agent-based model, we explore one of the technology-based strategies proposed, a contact-tracing smartphone app. The model simulates the spread of COVID-19 in a population of agents on an urban scale. Agents are heterogeneous in their characteristics and are linked in a multi-layered network representing the social structure - including households, friendships, employment and schools. We explore the interplay of various adoption rates of the contact-tracing app, different levels of testing capacity, and behavioural factors to assess the impact on the epidemic. Results suggest that a contact tracing app can contribute substantially to reducing infection rates in the population when accompanied by a sufficient testing capacity or when the testing policy prioritises symptomatic cases. As user rate increases, prevalence of infection decreases. With that, when symptomatic cases are not prioritised for testing, a high rate of app users can generate an extensive increase in the demand for testing, which, if not met with adequate supply, may render the app counterproductive. This points to the crucial role of an efficient testing policy and the necessity to upscale testing capacity.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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