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arXiv 2004.12576cs.CYcs.SI
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如何恢复正常:通过移动设备的接近感测快速全面地追踪COVID-19的联系人

How to Return to Normalcy: Fast and Comprehensive Contact Tracing of COVID-19 through Proximity Sensing Using Mobile Devices

Ye Xia, Gwendolyn Lee

摘要:

我们概述了一个接触跟踪策略的基础上接近传感使用移动设备。我们讨论一个理想的系统应该是什么样子,它可以做什么。我们表明,当这种接触者追踪策略得到足够广泛的采用时,它可以完全控制COVID-19,结束社交距离的需要,并使社会恢复完全正常。我们还回顾了当前一代接近传感技术所面临的一些挑战,包括手机使用的蓝牙低功耗,并考虑了中期和长期的解决方案。我们的主要贡献是,我们推理出为什么这种接触者追踪战略有可能实现恢复完全正常的既定目标。使用概率模型,我们表明,普遍采用是不必要的,以实现既定的目标,因此有一些例外的空间;然而,采用率需要非常高,例如,高于$95\%$,取决于疾病参数。在疾病监测方面提高警惕,及早发现轻度病例,这一数字可能会降至约$90\%$。研究结果要求由州或联邦一级的公共当局领导部署工作,以便达到所需的采用率,并且追踪覆盖范围足够广,与疾病控制相关。

英文摘要:

We outline a contact-tracing strategy based on proximity sensing using mobile devices. We discuss what an ideal system should look like and what it can do. We show that, when adopted sufficiently broadly, such a contact-tracing strategy can bring COVID-19 under complete control, end the need of social distancing, and return the society to full normalcy. We also review some of the challenges faced by the current generation of proximity-sensing technologies, including Bluetooth Low Energy used by phones, and consider both interim and longer-term solutions. Our main contribution is that we reason through why such a contact-tracing strategy is likely to achieve the stated goal of returning to full normalcy. Using probabilistic models, we show that universal adoption is not necessary to achieve the stated goal, thus there is some room for exceptions; however, the adoption rate needs to be very high, e.g., above $95\%$ depending on the disease parameters. With more vigilance in disease surveillance to detect mild cases earlier, the number may be brought down to about $90\%$. The results call for deployment effort to be led by public authorities at the state or federal level so that the required adoption rate can be reached and the tracing coverage is wide enough to be relevant for disease control.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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