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arXiv 2006.07447math.PR
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索赔额为重尾和轻尾混合时破产概率的有效模拟

Efficient simulation of ruin probabilities when claims are mixtures of heavy and light tails

Hansjörg Albrecher, Martin Bladt, Eleni Vatamidou

摘要:

本文考虑索赔额为相型和次指数混合变量的经典Cramér-Lundberg风险模型。利用一个特定的几何复合表示,我们提出了控制变量技术,有效地模拟破产概率在这种情况下。由此产生的估计表现良好的小和大的初始资本。我们量化的方差减少,以及我们的方法的效率增益超过另一个快速的标准技术的基础上的经典Pollaczek-Khinchine公式。我们提供了一个数值例子来说明的性能,并表明,对于更耗时的条件蒙特卡罗技术,新的系列表示也没有比较不利的Pollaczek-Khinchine公式的基础上。

英文摘要:

We consider the classical Cramér-Lundberg risk model with claim sizes that are mixtures of phase-type and subexponential variables. Exploiting a specific geometric compound representation, we propose control variate techniques to efficiently simulate the ruin probability in this situation. The resulting estimators perform well for both small and large initial capital. We quantify the variance reduction as well as the efficiency gain of our method over another fast standard technique based on the classical Pollaczek-Khinchine formula. We provide a numerical example to illustrate the performance, and show that for more time-consuming conditional Monte Carlo techniques, the new series representation also does not compare unfavorably to the one based on the Pollaczek- Khinchine formula.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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