Olga Navickienė, Jonas Sprindys, Jonas Šiaulys
The discrete time risk model with two seasons and dependent claims is considered. An algorithm is created for computing the values of the ultimate ruin probability. Theoretical results are illustrated with numerical examples.
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This paper deals with the discrete-time risk model with nonidentically distributed claims. We suppose that the claims repeat with time periods of three units, that is, claim distributions coincide at times $\{1,4,7,\ldots\}$, at times $\{2,5,8,\ldots\}$, and at times $\{3,6,9,\ldots\}$. We present the recursive formulas to calculate the finite-time and ultimate ruin probabilities. We illustrate the theoretical results by several numerical examples.
In this paper we propose new iterative algorithm of calculating the joint distribution of the Parisian ruin time and the number of claims until Parisian ruin for the classical risk model. Examples are provided when the generic claim size is exponentially distributed.
We analyse the asymptotics of ruin probabilities of two insurance companies (or two branches of the same company) that divide between them both claims and premia in some specified proportions when the initial reserves of both companies tend to infinity and generic claim size is subexponential.
In this paper, we consider a classical risk model refracted at given level. We give an explicit expression for the joint density of the ruin time and the cumulative number of claims counted up to ruin time. The proof is based on solving some integro-differential equations and employing the Lagrange's Expansion Theorem.
On the random-time and finite-time ruin probability for widely dependent claim sizes and inter-arrival times
本文利用精确大偏差与更新理论，研究了非标准更新风险模型中广泛相依的索赔额与到达时间，获得了随机时间破产概率的渐近估计及有限时间破产概率的一致渐近估计。
We derive a closed-form (infinite series) representation for the distribution of the ruin time for the Sparre Andersen model with exponentially distributed claims. This extends a recent result of Dickson et al. (2005) for such processes with Erlang inter-claim times. We illustrate our result in the cases of gamma and mixed exponential inter-claim time distributions.
We investigate the probability that an insurance portfolio gets ruined within a finite time period under the assumption that the r largest claims are (partly) reinsured. We show that for regularly varying claim sizes the probability of ruin after reinsurance is also regularly varying in terms of the initial capital, and derive an explicit asymptotic expression for the latter. We establish this result by leveraging recent developments on sample-path large deviations for heavy tails. Our results allow, on the asymptotic level, for an explicit comparison between two well-known large-claim reinsur…
Ruin problems for risk processes with dependent phase-type claims
本文研究具有相依非同分布相位型理赔的连续时间风险过程，提出易于刻画的分布类并结合马尔可夫调制流体嵌入技术，获得了破产时间、破产赤字及理赔次数联合分布的递归程序与破产概率界限。
We analyse the ruin probabilities for a renewal insurance risk process with inter-arrival time distributions depending on the claims that arrived within a fixed (past) time window. This dependence could be explained through a regenerative structure. The main inspiration of the model comes from the Bonus-Malus feature. We discuss first asymptotic results of ruin probabilities for different regimes of claim distributions. For numerical results, we recognise an embedded Markov additive process. Via an appropriate change of measure, ruin probabilities could be computed to a closed form formulae. A…
Uniform asymptotic estimates for ruin probabilities of a multidimensional risk model with cadlag returns and multivariate heavy tailed claims
本文研究多维更新风险模型，在重尾、弱相依及分量任意相依的索赔条件下，给出了有限时间及全时间范围内折现总索赔进入稀有集概率的一致渐近估计，并应用于破产概率估计。
This paper obtains an asymptotic formula for the finite-time ruin probability of the compound nonhomogeneous Poisson risk model with a constant interest force, in which the claims are conditionally independent random variables with a common subexponential distribution. The paper also obtains some asymptotic relations of randomly weighted sums $\sum_{i=1}^n θ_iX_i$, in which the weights $θ_i$ $i=1,2,\cdots, n$ are positive random variables which are bounded above and the primary random variables $X_i$, $i=1,2,\cdots,n$ are conditionally independent and follow subexponential distributions.
We study the asymptotic behavior of ruin probabilities, as the initial reserve goes to infinity, for a reserve process model where claims arrive according to a renewal process, while between the claim times the process has the dynamics of geometric Brownian motion-type Itô processes with time-dependent random coefficients. These coefficients are ``reset" after each claim time, switching to new values independent of the past history of the process. We use the implicit renewal theory to obtain power-function bounds for the eventual ruin probability. In the special case when the random drift and …
Asymptotics for Bivariate Risk Models with Random-Size Clusters of Dependent Claims
本文针对Levy投资下具有随机大小簇的相依索赔二元风险模型，推导了有限时域尾部及破产概率的渐近公式，并给出了两条业务线破产、同时破产及至少一条线破产的渐近结果。
Ruin probability for renewal risk models with neutral net profit condition
本文研究了在索赔与保费平均频率相等的中性净利润条件下不可避免破产的问题，通过简化论证分析了离散时间风险模型、Cramér-Lundberg 过程及 E. Sparre Andersen 模型的破产概率。
We consider the classical Cramér-Lundberg risk model with claim sizes that are mixtures of phase-type and subexponential variables. Exploiting a specific geometric compound representation, we propose control variate techniques to efficiently simulate the ruin probability in this situation. The resulting estimators perform well for both small and large initial capital. We quantify the variance reduction as well as the efficiency gain of our method over another fast standard technique based on the classical Pollaczek-Khinchine formula. We provide a numerical example to illustrate the performance…
This paper studies risk balancing features in an insurance market by evaluating ruin probabilities for single and multiple components of a multivariate compound Poisson risk process. The dependence of the components of the process is induced by a random bipartite network. In analogy with the non-network scenario, a network ruin parameter is introduced. This random parameter, which depends on the bipartite network, is crucial for the ruin probabilities. Under certain conditions on the network and for light-tailed claim size distributions we obtain Lundberg bounds and, for exponential claim size…
We investigate, focusing on the ruin probability, an adaptation of the Cramer-Lundberg model for the surplus process of an insurance company, in which, conditionally on their intensities, the two mixed Poisson processes governing the arrival times of the premiums and of the claims respectively, are independent. Such a model exhibits a stochastic dependence between the aggregate premium and claim amount processes. An explicit expression for the ruin probability is obtained when the claim and premium sizes are exponentially distributed.
In this paper we study the joint ruin problem for two insurance companies that divide between them both claims and premia in some specified proportions (modeling two branches of the same insurance company or an insurance and re-insurance company). Modeling the risk processes of the insurance companies by Cramér-Lundberg processes we obtain the Laplace transform in space of the probability that either of the insurance companies is ruined in finite time. Subsequently, for exponentially distributed claims, we derive an explicit analytical expression for this joint ruin probability by explicitly i…
Based on a discrete version of the Pollaczeck-Khinchine formula, a general method to calculate the ultimate ruin probability in the Gerber-Dickson risk model is provided when claims follow a negative binomial mixture distribution. The result is then extended for claims with a mixed Poisson distribution. The formula obtained allows for some approximation procedures. Several examples are provided along with the numerical evidence of the accuracy of the approximations.
Ruin theory incorporating MIPP-type jumps
本文将经典Cramer-Lundberg模型扩展至MIPP型跳，推导了终极破产准则、积分-微分方程与拉普拉斯变换，引入近似方法，通过数值例子验证了索赔成批到达对破产风险的影响。
Multivariate Ruin in Lévy-driven Insurance Risk Models under Heavy Tails
本文针对重尾索赔下多业务线保险公司的有限时间破产问题，利用多元Lévy过程与子锥正则变化建模，给出了破产概率的精确缩放率及极限行为，并通过模拟验证。
In this paper, we consider the perturbed renewal risk process. Systems of integro-differential equations for the Gerber-Shiu functions at ruin caused by a claim and oscillation are established, respectively. The explicit Laplase transforms of Gerber-Shiu functions are obtained, while the closed form expressions for the Gerber-Shiu functions are derived when the claim amount distribution is from the rational family. Finally, we present numerical examples intended to illustrate the main results.
We investigate a new natural class $\mathcal{J}$ of probability distributions modeling large claim sizes, motivated by the `principle of one big jump'. Though significantly more general than the (sub-)class of subexponential distributions $\mathcal{S}$, many important and desirable structural properties can still be derived. We establish relations to many other important large claim distribution classes (such as $\mathcal{D}$, $\mathcal{S}$, $\mathcal{L}$, $\mathcal {K}$, $\mathcal{OS}$ and $\mathcal{OL}$), discuss the stability of $\mathcal{J}$ under tail-equivalence, convolution, convolution…
In this paper, we extend an existing scheme for numerically calculating the probability of ruin of a classical Cramér--Lundberg reserve process having absolutely continuous but otherwise general claim size distributions. We employ a dense class of distributions that we denominate Erlangized scale mixtures (ESM) and correspond to nonnegative and absolutely continuous distributions which can be written as a Mellin--Stieltjes convolution $Π\star G$ of a nonnegative distribution $Π$ with an Erlang distribution $G$. A distinctive feature of such a class is that it contains heavy-tailed distribution…
In this paper we consider a compound Poisson risk model with regularly varying claim sizes. For this model in [1] an asymptotic formula for the finite time ruin probability is provided when the time is scaled by the mean excess function. In this paper we derive the rate of convergence for this finite time ruin probability when the claims have a finite second moment. [1] S. Asmussen and C. Klüppelberg. Large deviations results for subexponential tails, with applications to insurance risk. Stochastic Process. Appl., 64(1):103-125, 1996.
In this short note, we derive explicit formulas for the joint densities of the time to ruin and the number of claims until ruin in perturbed classical risk models, by constructing several auxiliary random processes.
In this paper we give few expressions and asymptotics of ruin probabilities for a Markov modulated risk process for various regimes of a time horizon, initial reserves and a claim size distribution. We also consider few versions of the ruin time.
Bonus-malus Systems vs Delays in Claims Reporting and Settlement: Analysis of Ruin Probabilities
本文在离散时间风险模型中比较基于已报告索赔和已理赔索赔的奖惩保费原则，发现附带索赔延迟概率越高破产概率越低，而主附带索赔相关性越强破产概率越高。
In this paper, we build on the techniques developed in Albrecher et al. (2013), to generate initial-boundary value problems for ruin probabilities of surplus-dependent premium risk processes, under a renewal case scenario, Erlang (2) claim arrivals, and an exponential claims scenario, Erlang (2) claim sizes. Applying the approximation theory of solutions of linear ordinary differential equations developed in Fedoryuk (1993), we derive the asymptotics of the ruin probabilities when the initial reserve tends to infinity. When considering premiums that are {\it linearly} dependent on reserves, re…
Consider a surplus process which both of collected premium and payed claim size are two independent compound Poisson processes. This article derives two approximated formulas for the ruin probability of such surplus process, say double stochastic compound poisson process. More precisely, it provides two mixture exponential approximations for ruin probability of such double stochastic compound poisson process. Applications to long_term Bonus_Malus systems and a heavy-tiled claim size distribution have been given. Improvement of our findings compared to the Cramer- Lundberg upper bound has been …
In this paper we study the asymptotic decay of finite time ruin probabilities for an insurance company that faces heavy-tailed claims, uses predictable investment strategies and makes investments in risky assets whose prices evolve according to quite general semimartingales. We show that the ruin problem corresponds to determining hitting probabilities for the solution to a randomly perturbed stochastic integral equation. We derive a large deviation result for the hitting probabilities that holds uniformly over a family of semimartingales and show that this result gives the asymptotic decay of…
In this paper, we obtain the finite-horizon and infinite-horizon ruin probability asymptotics for risk processes with claims of subexponential tails for non-stationary arrival processes that satisfy a large deviation principle. As a result, the arrival process can be dependent, non-stationary and non-renewal. We give three examples of non-stationary and non-renewal point processes: Hawkes process, Cox process with shot noise intensity and self-correcting point process. We also show some aggregate claims results for these three examples.
We deal with a generalization of the classical risk model when an insurance company gets additional funds whenever a claim arrives and consider some practical approaches to the estimation of the ruin probability. In particular, we get an upper exponential bound and construct an analogue to the De Vylder approximation for the ruin probability. We compare results of these approaches with statistical estimates obtained by the Monte Carlo method for selected distributions of claim sizes and additional funds.
We introduce the concept of cumulative Parisian ruin, which is based on the time spent in the red by the underlying surplus process. Our main result is an explicit representation for the distribution of the occupation time, over a finite-time horizon, for a compound Poisson process with drift and exponential claims. The Brownian ruin model is also studied in details. Finally, we analyze for a general framework the relationships between cumulative Parisian ruin and classical ruin, as well as with Parisian ruin based on exponential implementation delays.
Infinite-time ruin probability of a multivariate renewal risk model with Brownian perturbations
本文研究了具有布朗扰动的多元再保险模型的无限时间破产概率，证明了破产概率的渐近行为对布朗扰动不敏感，并展示了满足特定条件的多元分布具有更简便的检查条件。
We study the asymptotics of the ruin probability in the Cramér-Lundberg model with a modified notion of ruin. The modification is as follows. If the portfolio becomes negative, the asset is not immediately declared ruined but may survive due to certain mechanisms. Under a rather general assumption on the mechanism - satisfied by most such modified models from the literature - we study the relation of the asymptotics of the modified ruin probability to the classical ruin probability. This is done under the Cramér condition as well as for subexponential integrated claim sizes.
Numerical evaluation of ruin probabilities in the classical risk model is an important problem. If claim sizes are heavy-tailed, then such evaluations are challenging. To overcome this, an attractive way is to approximate the claim sizes with a phase-type distribution. What is not clear though is how many phases are enough in order to achieve a specific accuracy in the approximation of the ruin probability. The goals of this paper are to investigate the number of phases required so that we can achieve a pre-specified accuracy for the ruin probability and to provide error bounds. Also, in the s…
We derive formulas for the moments of the ruin time in a Lévy risk model and use these to determine the asymptotic behavior of the moments of the ruin time as the initial capital tends to infinity. In the special case of the perturbed Cramér-Lundberg model with phase-type or exponentially distributed claims, we explicitly compute the first two moments of the ruin time. All our considerations distinguish between the profitable and the unprofitable setting.
Exact asymptotics of ruin probabilities with linear Hawkes arrivals
本文研究了到达过程由线性标记Hawkes过程给出的风险过程的破产概率，确定了轻尾和重尾理赔情形下的界限与精确渐近性，核心方法基于一次大跳跃原理、测度指数变换和更新论证。
In this paper we consider a classical risk process perturbed by a Brownian motion. We analyze the value function describing the mean of the cumulative discounted dividend payments paid up to Parisian ruin time and further discounted by the number of claims appeared up to this ruin time. We identify this value function for the barrier strategy and find the sufficient conditions for this strategy to be optimal. We also consider few particular examples.
Exact solution of the ruin problem in the Cramér--Lundberg model with proportional investment
本文通过将生存概率的积分微分方程转化为双曲Heun方程，得到破产概率的显式解，并进行了投资比例的定性分析。
The classical Cramér-Lundberg risk process models the ruin probability of an insurance company experiencing an incoming cash flow - the premium income, and an outgoing cash flow - the claims. From a system's viewpoint, the web of insurance agents and risk objects can be represented by a bipartite network. In such a bipartite network setting, it has been shown that joint ruin of a group of agents may be avoided even if individual agents would experience ruin in the classical Cramér-Lundberg model. This paper describes and examines a phase transition phenomenon for these ruin probabilities.
For a risk process $R_u(t)=u+ct-X(t), t\ge 0$, where $u\ge 0$ is the initial capital, $c>0$ is the premium rate and $X(t),t\ge 0$ is an aggregate claim process, we investigate the probability of the Parisian ruin \[ \mathcal{P}_S(u,T_u)=\mathbb{P}\{\inf_{t\in[0,S]} \sup_{s\in[t,t+T_u]} R_u(s)<0\}, \] with a given positive constant $S$ and a positive measurable function $T_u$. We derive asymptotic expansion of $\mathcal{P}_S(u,T_u)$, as $u\to\infty$, for the aggregate claim process $X$ modeled by Gaussian processes. As a by-product, we derive the exact tail asymptotics of the infimum of a stand…
We apply the theory of linear recurrence sequences to find an expression for the ultimate ruin probability in a discrete-time risk process. We assume the claims follow an arbitrary distribution with support $\{0,1,\ldots,m\}$, for some integer $m\ge2$. The method requires to find the zeroes of an $m$ degree polynomial and to solve a system of $m$ linear equations. An approximation is derived from the exact ruin formula and several numerical results and plots are provided as examples.
In this work we set up the distribution function of $\mathcal{M}:=\sup_{n\geqslant1}\sum_{i=1}^{n}{(Z_i-1)}$, where the random walk $\sum_{i=1}^{n}Z_i, n\in\mathbb{N},$ is generated by $N$ periodically occurring distributions and the integer-valued and non-negative random variables $Z_1,\,Z_2,\,\ldots$ are independent. The considered random walk generates so-called multi seasonal discrete time risk model, and a known distribution of random variable $\mathcal{M}$ enables to calculate ultimate time ruin or survival probability. Verifying obtained theoretical statements we demonstrate several com…
We consider a generalization of the classical risk model when the premium intensity depends on the current surplus of an insurance company. All surplus is invested in the risky asset, the price of which follows a geometric Brownian motion. We get an exponential bound for the infinite-horizon ruin probability. To this end, we allow the surplus process to explode and investigate the question concerning the probability of explosion of the surplus process between claim arrivals.
Iterated Poisson Processes for Catastrophic Risk Modeling in Ruin Theory
本文提出用多重迭代泊松过程（MIPP）刻画灾难性聚集索赔，推导首次跳跃幅度概率与联合分布的拉普拉斯变换，并在破产理论中给出闭合形式的尺度函数，以改进极端风险建模和破产概率计算。
Modified ruin probability for a Cramér-Lundberg model driven by a compound mixed Poisson process
研究改进的破产概率，探讨在重尾和轻尾情况下，改进与经典破产概率的等价性及端点原子结果和密度渐近性。
This paper considers a Cramér-Lundberg risk setting, where the components of the underlying model change over time. These components could be thought of as the claim arrival rate, the claim-size distribution, and the premium rate, but we allow the more general setting of the cumulative claim process being modelled as a spectrally positive Lévy process. We provide an intuitively appealing mechanism to create such parameter uncertainty: at Poisson epochs we resample the model components from a finite number of $d$ settings. It results in a setup that is particularly suited to describe situations…
We study a general perturbed risk process with cumulative claims modelled by a subordinator with finite expectation, with the perturbation being a spectrally negative Levy process with zero expectation. We derive a Pollaczek-Hinchin type formula for the survival probability of that risk process, and give an interpretation of the formula based on the decomposition of the dual risk process at modified ladder epochs.
Consider two insurance companies (or two branches of the same company) that divide between them both claims and premia in some specified proportions. We model the occurrence of claims according to a renewal process. One ruin problem considered is that of the corresponding two-dimensional risk process first leaving the positive quadrant; another is that of entering the negative quadrant. When the claims arrive according to a Poisson process, we obtain a closed form expression for the ultimate ruin probability. In the general case, we analyze the asymptotics of the ruin probability when the init…
A characterization of ruin-inducing probability measures in a renewal risk model
本文通过合适的函数对(γ,δ)对再生风险模型中导致破产的概率测度进行了完整特征化，并给出了无限时间破产概率的显式表示。
This paper develops asymptotics and approximations for ruin probabilities in a multivariate risk setting. We consider a model in which the individual reserve processes are driven by a common Markovian environmental process. We subsequently consider a regime in which the claim arrival intensity and transition rates of the environmental process are jointly sped up, and one in which there is (with overwhelming probability) maximally one transition of the environmental process in the time interval considered. The approximations are extensively tested in a series of numerical experiments.
Asymptotics of Ruin Probabilities in a Subordinated Cramér-Lundberg Model
本文研究了在莱维子ordinator 时间变换下的非寿险投资组合模型，证明了该变换对 ruin 概率的负面影响及初始资本与 ruin 概率之间的缓慢依赖关系。
In this chapter we propose an extended concept of the expected discounted penalty function (EDPF) that takes into account new ruin-related random variables. We add to the EDPF, which was introduced in classical papers [Gerber and Shiu (1997), (1998) and Gerber and Landry (1998)], a sequence of expected discounted functions of new record minima reached by a jump of the risk process after ruin. Inspired by results of Huzak et al. (2004) and developpements in fluctuation theory for spectrally negative Lévy processes, we provide a characterization for this extended EDPF in a setting involving a cu…
We consider in this paper a risk reserve process where the claims and gains arrive according to two independent Poisson processes. While the gain sizes are phase-type distributed, we assume instead that the claim sizes are phase-type perturbed by a heavy-tailed component; that is, the claim size distribution is formally chosen to be phase-type with large probability $1-ε$ and heavy-tailed with small probability $ε$. We analyze the seminal Gerber-Shiu function coding the joint distribution of the time to ruin, the surplus immediately before ruin, and the deficit at ruin. We derive its value as …
Finite-Time Ruin for the Compound Markov Binomial Risk Model
本文研究由有限状态遍历马尔可夫链调制的复合二项风险模型的有限时间破产概率，通过推广 Ballot 定理处理零初始盈余情形，并利用多元 Lagrangian 反演给出任意初始盈余下的 Seal 型破产公式。
Insurance risk models in a heterogeneous time-dependent population: scaling limits and ruin probabilities
针对传染病导致的时变异质性人群，提出与随机种群动力学关联的索赔过程模型，推导尺度极限和破产概率界限，为风险评估提供可处理工具。
In this note we find a formula for the supremum distribution of spectrally positive or negative Lévy processes with a broken linear drift. This gives formulas for ruin probabilities in the case when two insurance companies (or two branches of the same company) divide between them both claims and premia in some specified proportions. As an example we consider gamma Lévy process, $α$-stable Lévy process and Brownian motion. Moreover we obtain identities for Laplace transform of the distribution for the supremum of Lévy processes with randomly broken drift and on random intervals.
Contemporary insurance theory is concentrated on models with different types of polices and shock events may influence the payments on some of them. Jordanova (2018) considered a model where a shock event contributes to the total claim amount with one and the same value of the claim sizes to different types of polices. Jordanova and Veleva (2021) went a step closer to real-life situations and allowed a shock event to cause different claim sizes to different types of polices. In that paper, the counting process is assumed to be Multinomial. Here it is replaced with different independent homogen…
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