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arXiv 1707.06129math.PR
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有限马尔可夫链上随机游动的条件局部极限定理

Conditioned local limit theorems for random walks defined on finite Markov chains

Ion Grama, Ronan Lauvergnat, Emile Le Page

摘要:

令$(X_n)_{n\geq 0}$是马尔可夫链,其值在从$X_0=x \in \mathbb X$开始的有限状态空间$\mathbb X$中,并且令$f$是定义在$\mathbb X$上的实函数。设置$S_n=\sum_{k=1}^{n} f(X_k)$、$n\geqslant 1$。对于任何$y \in \mathbb R$,用$τ_y$表示$y+S_n$首次变为非阳性的时间。我们研究概率$\mathbb P_x \left( y+S_{n} \in [z,z+a] \,,\, τ_y > n \right)$作为$n\to+\infty.$的渐近行为。我们首先为这个概率建立Stone局部极限定理的条件版本。然后,我们找到了它的一个渐近等价的$n^{3/2}$阶,并给出了一个推广,这是有用的应用。我们还描述了概率$\mathbb P_x \left( τ_y = n \right)$作为$n\to+\infty$的渐近行为。

英文摘要:

Let $(X_n)_{n\geq 0}$ be a Markov chain with values in a finite state space $\mathbb X$ starting at $X_0=x \in \mathbb X$ and let $f$ be a real function defined on $\mathbb X$. Set $S_n=\sum_{k=1}^{n} f(X_k)$, $n\geqslant 1$. For any $y \in \mathbb R$ denote by $τ_y$ the first time when $y+S_n$ becomes non-positive. We study the asymptotic behaviour of the probability $\mathbb P_x \left( y+S_{n} \in [z,z+a] \,,\, τ_y > n \right)$ as $n\to+\infty.$ We first establish for this probability a conditional version of the local limit theorem of Stone. Then we find for it an asymptotic equivalent of order $n^{3/2}$ and give a generalization which is useful in applications. We also describe the asymptotic behaviour of the probability $\mathbb P_x \left( τ_y = n \right)$ as $n\to+\infty$.

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