人均实际US GDP的长期双极增长率：对理解过去和未来经济增长的影响
Secular bipolar growth rate of the real US GDP per capita: implications for understanding past and future economic growth
摘要：
我们使用小波变换分析两个数据集，1947年至2015年的季度数据和1800年至2010年的年度数据，在许多尺度上对美国实际人均GDP增长的年化增长率波动进行了定量表征。我们的主要发现是，GDP增长率的分布可以很好地近似由双峰函数与一系列的开关之间的制度的强增长率$ρ_\text{high}$和制度的低增长率$ρ_\text{low}$。这两种制度的连续组合产生了一个非常稳定的长期平均实际年增长率，从1800年到2010年为1.6%，自1950年以来为$\approx 2.0\%$，这是高增长和低增长制度之间不断交替的微妙补偿的结果。因此，美国经济的整体增长动力被打断，出现了本质上不可持续的强劲增长阶段，随后是修正或整合，直到下一次繁荣开始。我们在“社会泡沫”理论中解释这些发现，并认为对2008年危机成本的估计可能具有误导性。我们还将2008年以来没有出现强劲复苏解释为长期的低增长机制$ρ_\text{low}$，与之前的大增长机制的特殊性质有关。
英文摘要：
We present a quantitative characterisation of the fluctuations of the annualized growth rate of the real US GDP per capita growth at many scales, using a wavelet transform analysis of two data sets, quarterly data from 1947 to 2015 and annual data from 1800 to 2010. Our main finding is that the distribution of GDP growth rates can be well approximated by a bimodal function associated to a series of switches between regimes of strong growth rate $ρ_\text{high}$ and regimes of low growth rate $ρ_\text{low}$. The succession of such two regimes compounds to produce a remarkably stable long term average real annualized growth rate of 1.6\% from 1800 to 2010 and $\approx 2.0\%$ since 1950, which is the result of a subtle compensation between the high and low growth regimes that alternate continuously. Thus, the overall growth dynamics of the US economy is punctuated, with phases of strong growth that are intrinsically unsustainable, followed by corrections or consolidation until the next boom starts. We interpret these findings within the theory of "social bubbles" and argue as a consequence that estimations of the cost of the 2008 crisis may be misleading. We also interpret the absence of strong recovery since 2008 as a protracted low growth regime $ρ_\text{low}$ associated with the exceptional nature of the preceding large growth regime.
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