模拟从社会主义到资本主义经济制度的过渡
Modelling the transition from a socialist to capitalist economic system
摘要：
研究了东欧、中欧和前苏联国家从社会主义经济体制向资本主义经济体制的过渡。最近发展的个人收入分配及其演变的微观经济模型和人均国内生产总值增长率与人均国内生产总值达到的水平之间的简单函数关系被用来描述转型过程。发展的转型模式只包含三个定义参数，并描述了实际人均国内生产总值在过去15年的演变过程。研究发现，中欧国家的转型过程在几年前就已经完成，其经济演变是由纯粹的资本主义规则决定的。从长远来看，这意味着这些国家的未来不得不走同样的道路，即依赖于人均国内生产总值本身的人均国内生产总值增长率，就像发达国家过去所做的那样。如果最好的GDP演变情景发生在被研究的国家，他们将能够保持相对于包括美国在内的大多数发达国家的人均国内生产总值的绝对落后。但是，如果他们遵循同样的发展规则，他们永远不会赶上先进国家。在俄罗斯和前苏联的一些国家，过渡进程仍远未完成。
英文摘要：
The transition of several East and Central European countries and the countries of the Former Soviet Union from the socialist economic system to the capitalist one is studied. A recently developed microeconomic model for the personal income distribution and its evolution and a simple functional relationship between the rate of the per capita GDP growth and the attained level of the per capita GDP are used to describe the transition process. The developed transition model contains only three defining parameters and describes the process of real GDP per capita evolution during the last 15 years. It is found that the transition process finished in the Central European countries several years ago and their economic evolution is defined by pure capitalist rules. In the long run, this means that the future of these countries has to follow the same path, i.e. dependence on the per capita GDP growth rate of the per capita GDP itself, as the developed countries have had in the past. If the best GDP evolution scenario occurs for the studied countries, they will be able to maintain the absolute lag in per capita GDP relative to most developed countries including the USA. But they will never catch the advanced countries if they follow the same rules of development. In Russia and some countries of the Former Soviet Union the transition process is still far from complete.
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