MENA地区政策层面的未来光伏发电生产目标和人均消费量关联
Future Photovoltaic Electricity Production Targets and The Link to Consumption per Capita on The Policy Level in MENA Region
摘要：
本文件概述了该区域电力市场的状况，指出了电力消费与人口增长和国内生产总值之间的关系。它还分析了不同国家的政策组合，指出了一些正在实施的政策的有效性和建议的替代方案。2000年至2014年期间，世界银行的数据集被用于分析。我们发现，中东和北非地区正处于可再生能源的早期阶段，太阳能潜力很大，对投资者具有吸引力。然而，消费和出口对石油的高度依赖可能不会为可再生技术的发展提供繁荣的环境。因此，更加注重使经济增长与能源消费脱钩，将对净石油出口国的财政收入产生长期影响。此外，脱钩的后果将使更多的可再生能源渗透到当前的能源结构中，使许多国家能够实现《巴黎协定》的目标。就短期能源政策行动而言，必须开始补贴改革，最终取消补贴，因为这些措施涉及所有终端用户部门，并影响许多国家的财政稳定。埃及在阿斯旺的1.65吉瓦Benban太阳能公园展示了从补贴化石燃料产品转向委托可再生能源项目以接近其巴黎协定目标的例子。
英文摘要：
This paper provides an overview of the status of the electricity market in the region, indicating the nexus between electricity consumption with population growth and GDP. It also analyzes the policy portfolio in different countries, indicating some of the in-action policies' effectiveness and recommended alternatives. World Bank datasets were used for the analysis between 2000 and 2014. We found that the MENA region is at an early stage for renewable energy with a high potential for solar energy, making it attractive for investors. However, the high dependency on oil for consumption and exporting might not provide a prosperous environment for renewable technologies to grow. Therefore, a greater focus on decoupling economic growth from energy consumption will have a long-lasting impact on fiscal revenues for net-oil exporting countries. Moreover, the consequences of the decoupling will allow more renewables penetration in the current energy mix enabling many countries to reach their Paris Agreement goals. For short-term energy policy actions, starting a subsidy reform towards the final repeal of subsidies is a must as these measures relate to all end-use sectors and impact fiscal stability in many countries. With its 1.65GW Benban Solar Park in Aswan, Egypt has shown an example of shifting from subsidizing fossil fuel products to commissioning renewable projects to get closer to its Paris Agreement targets.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
