GDP增长率测量不变性的破坏及其后果
Violation of Invariance of Measurement for GDP Growth Rate and its Consequences
摘要：
这里的目的是解决美国实际增长率可持续性的根源。一个多世纪以来，对美国实际人均GDP的观察显示，2%的增长率是可持续的。为了解释这一现象，我考虑了效用偏好的影响以及劳动力和资本流动性对每一种测量方法的影响。劳动力的流动导致价格的异质性增长，这就是鲍莫尔成本病现象。然后，不同的通货膨胀率使得不可能为实际增长率定义一个不变的衡量标准。在将世界银行提供的不同计量与国民核算体系的计量进行比较时，已经观察到了不符合实际和模棱两可的结果。这种模糊性目前正在经济学中讨论。我定义了一个玩具模型来照顾测量，以说明这种模糊性可能非常重要。我提供了一些例子，其中GDP增长了5倍，而测量值却接受了大约2倍的增长。违反测量的不变性导致很难将美国等平稳增长国家的GDP增长率与中国等快速增长国家的GDP增长率进行比较。此外，我还指出，要推断中国经济超过美国经济的时间，我们需要考虑两国央行的本地指标。最后，我得出结论，这是我们的测量方法，导致我们接受的可持续增长率。
英文摘要：
The aim here is to address the origins of sustainability for the real growth rate in the United States. For over a century of observations on the real GDP per capita of the United States a sustainable two percent growth rate has been observed. To find an explanation for this observation I consider the impact of utility preferences and the effect of mobility of labor \& capital on every provided measurement. Mobility of labor results in heterogenous rates of increase in prices which is called Baumol's cost disease phenomenon. Heterogeneous rates of inflation then make it impossible to define an invariant measure for the real growth rate. Paradoxical and ambiguous results already have been observed when different measurements provided by the World Bank have been compared with the ones from the systems of national accounts (SNA). Such ambiguity is currently being discussed in economy. I define a toy model for caring out measurements in order to state that this ambiguity can be very significant. I provide examples in which GDP expands 5 folds while measurements percept an expansion around 2 folds. Violation of invariance of the measurements leads to state that it is hard to compare the growth rate of GDP for a smooth growing country such as the U.S. with a fast growing country such as China. Besides, I state that to extrapolate the time that economy of China passes the economy of the US we need to consider local metric of the central banks of both countries. Finally I conclude that it is our method of measurements that leads us to percept the sustainable growth rate.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
