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arXiv 1410.2196cs.SIphysics.soc-ph
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缩放SIS过程下子图在小规模网络传染病中的作用

Role of Subgraphs in Epidemics over Finite-Size Networks under the Scaled SIS Process

June Zhang, José M. F. Moura

摘要:

在以前的工作中,我们开发了缩放SIS过程,该过程模拟了网络上SIS流行病的动态。通过缩放SIS过程,我们可以考虑有限大小和任意拓扑的网络(即,我们不限于特定类别的网络)。我们推导出的缩放SIS过程的时间渐近概率分布的网络中的所有代理的状态的封闭形式的表达式。平衡分布的这种封闭形式的解通过其邻接矩阵明确地展示了底层网络拓扑。本文确定哪种网络配置是最可能的。我们证明,对于一系列的流行病参数,这个组合问题导致一个子模块优化问题,这是完全可解的多项式时间。我们与网络结构,特别是高密度子图的存在性的最可能的配置。根据流行病参数的不同,代理人的子集可能比其他代理人更有可能被感染;这些更脆弱的代理人形成的子图比整个网络更密集。我们用193个节点的社交网络和4941个节点的美国西部电网在不同的流行病参数下说明了我们的结果。

英文摘要:

In previous work, we developed the scaled SIS process, which models the dynamics of SIS epidemics over networks. With the scaled SIS process, we can consider networks that are finite-sized and of arbitrary topology (i.e., we are not restricted to specific classes of networks). We derived for the scaled SIS process a closed-form expression for the time-asymptotic probability distribution of the states of all the agents in the network. This closed-form solution of the equilibrium distribution explicitly exhibits the underlying network topology through its adjacency matrix. This paper determines which network configuration is the most probable. We prove that, for a range of epidemics parameters, this combinatorial problem leads to a submodular optimization problem, which is exactly solvable in polynomial time. We relate the most-probable configuration to the network structure, in particular, to the existence of high density subgraphs. Depending on the epidemics parameters, subset of agents may be more likely to be infected than others; these more-vulnerable agents form subgraphs that are denser than the overall network. We illustrate our results with a 193 node social network and the 4941 node Western US power grid under different epidemics parameters.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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