SIS Epidemic Model under Mobility on Multi-layer Networks
Vishal Abhishek, Vaibhav Srivastava
备注：
Extended version of the paper to appear at ACC 2020 and is an extension to the arXiv paper- On Epidemic Spreading under Mobility on Networks (arXiv:1909.02647v2) to Multi-layer setting
We study the influence of heterogeneous mobility patterns in a population on the SIS epidemic model. In particular, we consider a patchy environment in which each patch comprises individuals belonging the different classes, e.g., individuals in different socio-economic strata. We model the mobility of individuals of each class across different patches through an associated Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC). The topology of these multiple CTMCs constitute the multi-layer network of mobility. At each time, individuals move in the multi-layer network of spatially-distributed patches according to their CTMC and subsequently interact with the local individuals in the patch according to an SIS epidemic model. We derive a deterministic continuum limit model describing these mobility-epidemic interactions. We establish the existence of a Disease-Free Equilibrium (DFE) and an Endemic Equilibrium (EE) under different parameter regimes and establish their (almost) global asymptotic stability using Lyapunov techniques. We derive simple sufficient conditions that highlight the influence of the multi-layer network on the stability of DFE. Finally, we numerically illustrate that the derived model provides a good approximation to the stochastic model with a finite population and also demonstrate the influence of the multi-layer network structure on the transient performance.
In this work, we use the spectral properties of graphons to study stability and sensitivity to noise of deterministic SIS epidemics over large networks. We consider the presence of additive noise in a linearized SIS model and we derive a noise index to quantify the deviation from the disease-free state due to noise. For finite networks, we show that the index depends on the adjacency eigenvalues of its graph. We then assume that the graph is a random sample from a piecewise Lipschitz graphon with finite rank and, using the eigenvalues of the associated graphon operator, we find an approximatio…
We study the class of SIS epidemics on temporal networks and propose a new activity-driven and adaptive epidemic model that captures the impact of asymptomatic and infectious individuals in the network. In the proposed model, referred to as the A-SIYS epidemic, each node can be in three possible states: susceptible, infected without symptoms or asymptomatic and infected with symptoms or symptomatic. Both asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals are infectious. We show that the proposed A-SIYS epidemic captures several well-established epidemic models as special cases and obtain sufficient cond…
This paper analyzes a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model of epidemic propagation over hypergraphs and, motivated by an important special case, we refer to the model as to the simplicial SIS model. Classically, the multi-group SIS model has assumed pairwise interactions of contagion across groups and thus has been vastly studied in the literature. It is only recently that a renewed special attention has been drawn to the study of contagion dynamics over higher-order interactions and over more general graph structures, like simplexes. Previous work on mean-field approximation scalar mo…
This paper considers the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model with an underlying network structure among subpopulations and focuses on the effect of social distancing to regulate the epidemic level. We demonstrate that if each subpopulation is informed of its infection rate and reduces interactions accordingly, the fraction of the subpopulation infected can remain below half for all time instants. To this end, we first modify the basic SIS model by introducing a state dependent parameter representing the frequency of interactions between subpopulations. Thereafter, we show tha…
We consider a system in which two viruses of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) type compete over general, overlaid graphs. While such systems have been the focus of many recent works, they have mostly been studied in the sense of convergence analysis, with no existing results quantifying the non-trivial coexistence equilibria (CE) - that is, when both competing viruses maintain long term presence over the network. In this paper, we prove monotonicity of the CE with respect to effective infection rates of the two viruses, and provide the first quantitative analysis of such equilibria i…
We study SIS epidemic spreading models under population dispersal on multi-layer networks. We consider a patchy environment in which each patch comprises individuals belonging to different classes. Individuals disperse to other patches on a multi-layer network in which each layer corresponds to a class. The dispersal on each layer is modeled by a Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC). At each time, individuals disperse according to their CTMC and subsequently interact with the local individuals in the patch according to an SIS model. We establish the existence of various equilibria under differe…
We study a coupled epidemic-mobility model in which, at each time, individuals move in a network of spatially-distributed regions (sub-populations) according to a Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC) and subsequently interact with the local sub-population according to an SIS model. We derive a deterministic continuum limit model describing these interactions. We prove the existence of a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium under different parameter regimes and establish their (almost) global asymptotic stability using Lyapunov techniques. For the stability of disease-free equilib…
The paper considers continuous-time networked susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) diseases spreading over a population. Each agent represents a sub-population and has its own healing rate and infection rate; the state of the agent at a time instant denotes what fraction of the said sub-population is infected with the disease at the said time instant. By taking account of the changes in behaviors of the agents in response to the infection rates in real-time, our goal is to devise a feedback strategy such that the infection level for each agent strictly stays below a pre-specified value. Furt…
Payame Noor University（帕亚梅努尔大学）；University of Virginia（弗吉尼亚大学）
Networks are landmarks of many complex phenomena where interweaving interactions between different agents transform simple local rule-sets into nonlinear emergent behaviors. While some recent studies unveil associations between the network structure and the underlying dynamical process, identifying stochastic nonlinear dynamical processes continues to be an outstanding problem. Here we develop a simple data-driven framework based on operator-theoretic techniques to identify and control stochastic nonlinear dynamics taking place over large-scale networks. The proposed approach requires no prior…
We investigate the evolution of epidemics over dynamical networks when nodes choose to interact with others in a selfish and decentralized manner. Specifically, we analyze the susceptible-asymptomatic-infected-recovered (SAIR) epidemic in the framework of activity-driven networks with heterogeneous node degrees and time-varying activation rates, and derive both individual and degree-based mean-field approximations of the exact state evolution. We then present a game-theoretic model where nodes choose their activation probabilities in a strategic manner using current state information as feedba…
Infectious diseases typically spread over a contact network with millions of individuals, whose sheer size is a tremendous challenge to analysing and controlling an epidemic outbreak. For some contact networks, it is possible to group individuals into clusters. A high-level description of the epidemic between a few clusters is considerably simpler than on an individual level. However, to cluster individuals, most studies rely on equitable partitions, a rather restrictive structural property of the contact network. In this work, we focus on Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemics, and …
We study convergence properties of competing epidemic models of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) type. The SIS epidemic model has seen widespread popularity in modelling the spreading dynamics of contagions such as viruses, infectious diseases, or even rumors/opinions over contact networks (graphs).We analyze the case of two such viruses spreading on overlaid graphs, with non-linear rates of infection spread and recovery. We call this the non-linear bi-virus model and, building upon recent results, obtain precise conditions for global convergence of the solutions to a trichotomy of p…
