arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2510.02269eess.SYcs.SY
收藏

竞争性双病毒SIS流行病中的博弈论社交距离策略

Game-theoretic Social Distancing in Competitive Bi-Virus SIS Epidemics

Benjamin Catalano, Keith Paarporn, Sebin Gracy

AI总结:

本研究构建了结合博弈论社交距离行为的双病毒SIS流行病模型,分析了系统均衡与稳定性,明确了双毒株共存的条件,为多毒株传播与社会行为互动研究提供了理论支撑。

摘要:

在复杂的现实网络中,众多因素会推动传染病的传播。其中尤其值得关注的是与疾病传播同步演变的社会行为。此外,近期研究强调了理解多种毒株(例如SARS-CoV-2的Delta和Omicron变异株)如何在人群中同时传播的重要性。本文提出了一种结合博弈论社交距离行为模型的双病毒SIS流行病模型,行为由演化博弈论中的复制者方程调控。每种毒株的流行程度会影响个体是否选择保持社交距离,而个体的行为反过来又会影响SIS模型中每种病毒的传播。我们的分析确定了系统的均衡点及其局部稳定性,揭示出多个具有不同社交距离水平的孤立不动点。研究发现,只有当两种毒株的基本再生数相等时,地方病共存才有可能实现。在假设每种病毒的基本再生数相同的前提下,我们确定了能产生共存均衡线的合适参数区间,同时还确定了上述均衡线的局部指数稳定性条件。我们通过若干数值模拟验证了研究结果。

英文摘要:

Numerous elements drive the spread of infectious diseases in complex real-world networks. Of particular interest is social behaviors that evolve in tandem with the spread of disease. Moreover, recent studies highlight the importance of understanding how multiple strains spread simultaneously through a population (e.g. Delta and Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2). In this paper, we propose a bi-virus SIS epidemic model coupled with a game-theoretic social distancing behavior model. The behaviors are governed by replicator equations from evolutionary game theory. The prevalence of each strain impacts the choice of an individual to social distance, and, in turn, their behavior affects the spread of each virus in the SIS model. Our analysis identifies equilibria of the system and their local stability properties, which reveal several isolated fixed points with varying levels of social distancing. We find that endemic co-existence is possible only when the reproduction numbers of both strains are equal. Assuming the reproduction number for each virus is the same, we identify suitable parameter regimes that give rise to lines of coexistence equilibria. Moreover, we also identify conditions for local exponential stability of said lines of equilibria. We illustrate our findings with several numerical simulations.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

↑