In this paper, we analyze dynamic switching networks, wherein the networks switch arbitrarily among a set of topologies. For this class of dynamic networks, we derive an epidemic threshold, considering the SIS epidemic model. First, an epidemic probabilistic model is developed assuming independence between states of nodes. We identify the conditions under which the epidemic dies out by linearizing the underlying dynamical system and analyzing its asymptotic stability around the origin. The concept of joint spectral radius is then used to derive the epidemic threshold, which is later validated using several networks (Watts-Strogatz, Barabasi-Albert, MIT reality mining graphs, Regular, and Gilbert). A simplified version of the epidemic threshold is proposed for undirected networks. Moreover, in the case of static networks, the derived epidemic threshold is shown to match conventional analytical results. Then, analytical results for the epidemic threshold of dynamic networksare proved to be applicable to periodic networks. For dynamic regular networks, we demonstrate that the epidemic threshold is identical to the epidemic threshold for static regular networks. An upper bound for the epidemic spread probability in dynamic Gilbert networks is also derived and verified using simulation.
We study the class of SIS epidemics on temporal networks and propose a new activity-driven and adaptive epidemic model that captures the impact of asymptomatic and infectious individuals in the network. In the proposed model, referred to as the A-SIYS epidemic, each node can be in three possible states: susceptible, infected without symptoms or asymptomatic and infected with symptoms or symptomatic. Both asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals are infectious. We show that the proposed A-SIYS epidemic captures several well-established epidemic models as special cases and obtain sufficient cond…
Even though transitivity is a central structural feature of social networks, its influence on epidemic spread on coevolving networks has remained relatively unexplored. Here we introduce and study an adaptive SIS epidemic model wherein the infection and network coevolve with non-trivial probability to close triangles during edge rewiring, leading to substantial reinforcement of network transitivity. This new model provides a unique opportunity to study the role of transitivity in altering the SIS dynamics on a coevolving network. Using numerical simulations and Approximate Master Equations (AM…
Recent violent political extremist events in Brazil and epidemic modeling: The role of a SIS-like model on the understanding of spreading and control of radicalism
In this work, we use the spectral properties of graphons to study stability and sensitivity to noise of deterministic SIS epidemics over large networks. We consider the presence of additive noise in a linearized SIS model and we derive a noise index to quantify the deviation from the disease-free state due to noise. For finite networks, we show that the index depends on the adjacency eigenvalues of its graph. We then assume that the graph is a random sample from a piecewise Lipschitz graphon with finite rank and, using the eigenvalues of the associated graphon operator, we find an approximatio…
Minimizing cumulative infections in SIS epidemic models over networks via an edge deletion algorithm
Posts and Telecommunications Institute of Technology（邮电大学）；Faculty of Fundamental Sciences - Lab Blockchain, Posts and Telecommunications Institute of Technology（邮电大学基础科学与区块链实验室）；Faculty of Information Technology, Posts and Telecommunications Institute of Technology（邮电大学信息技术学院）
We consider a system in which two viruses of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) type compete over general, overlaid graphs. While such systems have been the focus of many recent works, they have mostly been studied in the sense of convergence analysis, with no existing results quantifying the non-trivial coexistence equilibria (CE) - that is, when both competing viruses maintain long term presence over the network. In this paper, we prove monotonicity of the CE with respect to effective infection rates of the two viruses, and provide the first quantitative analysis of such equilibria i…
We study the influence of heterogeneous mobility patterns in a population on the SIS epidemic model. In particular, we consider a patchy environment in which each patch comprises individuals belonging the different classes, e.g., individuals in different socio-economic strata. We model the mobility of individuals of each class across different patches through an associated Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC). The topology of these multiple CTMCs constitute the multi-layer network of mobility. At each time, individuals move in the multi-layer network of spatially-distributed patches according t…
May the Best Meme Win!: New Exploration of Competitive Epidemic Spreading over Arbitrary Multi-Layer Networks
本文将单病毒在任意图上传播的SIS传染病模型推广到两个互斥竞争病毒在具有类属结构的两层网络上传播的SI 1 SI 2S传染病模型，其中网络层代表病毒的不同传播路径.通过引入生存阈值和获胜阈值的概念，我们找到了确定病毒灭绝、互斥和共存的分析结果。此外，我们表明共存的可能性SIS型竞争性传播多层网络。我们不仅严格证明了共存的区域，我们通过网络层的中心节点的相互关系来量化它。层中心节点的重叠很少或没有重叠是共存的关键决定因素。具体来说，我们表明共存是不可能的，如果网络层是相同的，但可能的，如果网络层有不同的主导特征向量和节点度向量。例如，我们通过分析和数值计算表明，网络层的正相关性使病毒难以生存，而在网络层负相关的网络中，病毒的生存更容易，但要完全清除其他病毒则更困难。我们相信，我们的方法有很大的应用潜力，以更广泛的类的多病原体传播的多层和互连的网络。
Time-varying network topologies can deeply influence dynamical processes mediated by them. Memory effects in the pattern of interactions among individuals are also known to affect how diffusive and spreading phenomena take place. In this paper we analyze the combined effect of these two ingredients on epidemic dynamics on networks. We study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) and the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) models on the recently introduced activity-driven networks with memory. By means of an activity-based mean-field approach we derive, in the long time limit, analytical pre…
In the study of infectious diseases on networks, researchers calculate epidemic thresholds to help forecast whether a disease will eventually infect a large fraction of a population. Because network structure typically changes in time, which fundamentally influences the dynamics of spreading processes on them and in turn affects epidemic thresholds for disease propagation, it is important to examine epidemic thresholds in temporal networks. Most existing studies of epidemic thresholds in temporal networks have focused on models in discrete time, but most real-world networked systems evolve con…
Payame Noor University（帕亚梅努尔大学）；University of Virginia（弗吉尼亚大学）
Networks are landmarks of many complex phenomena where interweaving interactions between different agents transform simple local rule-sets into nonlinear emergent behaviors. While some recent studies unveil associations between the network structure and the underlying dynamical process, identifying stochastic nonlinear dynamical processes continues to be an outstanding problem. Here we develop a simple data-driven framework based on operator-theoretic techniques to identify and control stochastic nonlinear dynamics taking place over large-scale networks. The proposed approach requires no prior…
We study a coupled epidemic-mobility model in which, at each time, individuals move in a network of spatially-distributed regions (sub-populations) according to a Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC) and subsequently interact with the local sub-population according to an SIS model. We derive a deterministic continuum limit model describing these interactions. We prove the existence of a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium under different parameter regimes and establish their (almost) global asymptotic stability using Lyapunov techniques. For the stability of disease-free equilib…
