10 pages, 5 figures. Proceedings of IAU Symposium 286: Comparative Magnetic Minima: Characterizing quiet times in the Sun and stars
发表信息：
Comparative Magnetic Minima: Characterizing quiet times in the Sun and Stars, Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union, IAU Symposium, 286, 350 (2012)
Since a universally accepted dynamo model of grand minima does not exist at the present time, we concentrate on the physical processes which may be behind the grand minima. After summarizing the relevant observational data, we make the point that, while the usual sources of irregularities of solar cycles may be sufficient to cause a grand minimum, the solar dynamo has to operate somewhat differently from the normal to bring the Sun out of the grand minimum. We then consider three possible sources of irregularities in the solar dynamo: (i) nonlinear effects; (ii) fluctuations in the poloidal field generation process; (iii) fluctuations in the meridional circulation. We conclude that (i) is unlikely to be the cause behind grand minima, but a combination of (ii) and (iii) may cause them. If fluctuations make the poloidal field fall much below the average or make the meridional circulation significantly weaker, then the Sun may be pushed into a grand minimum.
In this work, we have studied the variability and frequency of occurrence of the grand minima using kinematic dynamo models of one solar mass star with different rotation rates and depths of convection zones. We specify the large-scale flows (differential rotations and meridional circulations) from corresponding hydrodynamic models. We include stochastic fluctuations in the Babcock-Leighton source for the poloidal field to produce variable stellar cycles. We observe that the rapidly rotating stars produce highly irregular cycles with strong magnetic fields and rarely produce Maunder-like grand…
We explore a reduced Babcock-Leighton (BL) dynamo model based on delay differential equations using numerical bifurcation analysis. This model reveals hysteresis, seen in the recent mean-field dynamo model and the direct numerical simulations of turbulent dynamos. The BL model with 'magnetic noise' as an additional weak-source of the poloidal field recovers the solar cycle every time from grand minima, which BL source alone cannot do. The noise-incorporated model exhibits a bimodal distribution of toroidal field energy confirming two modes of solar activity. It also shows intermittency and rep…
A Stochastically Forced Time Delay Solar Dynamo Model: Self-Consistent Recovery from a Maunder-like Grand Minimum Necessitates a Mean-Field Alpha Effect
We aim to investigate the nature and occurrence characteristics of grand solar minimum and maximum periods, which are observed in the solar proxy records such as 10Be and 14C, using a fully non-linear Babcock-Leighton type flux-transport dynamo including momentum and entropy equations. The differential rotation and meridional circulation are generated from the effect of turbulent Reynolds stress and are subjected to back-reaction from the magnetic field. To generate grand minimum and maximum-like periods in our simulations, we used random fluctuations in the angular momentum transport process,…
Recovery of the Solar Cycle from Maunder-like Grand Minima Episodes: A Quantification of the Necessary Polar Flux Threshold through Solar Dynamo Simulations
Extreme solar activity fluctuations and the occurrence of solar grand minima and maxima episodes, are well established, observed features of the solar cycle. Nevertheless, such extreme activity fluctuations and the dynamics of the solar cycle during Maunder minima-like episodes remain ill-understood. We explore the origin of such extreme solar activity fluctuations and the role of dual poloidal field sources, namely the Babcock-Leighton mechanism and the mean-field alpha effect in the dynamics of the solar cycle. We mainly concentrate on entry and recovery from grand minima episodes such as th…
The Sun occasionally goes through Maunder-like extended grand minima when its magnetic activity drops considerably from the normal activity level for several decades. Many possible theories have been proposed to explain the origin of these minima. However, how the Sun managed to recover from such inactive phases every time is even more enigmatic. The Babcock--Leighton type dynamos, which are successful in explaining many features of the solar cycle remarkably well, are not expected to operate during grand minima due to the lack of a sufficient number of sunspots. In this Letter, we explore the…
We explore the cause of the solar cycle variabilities using a novel 3D Babcock--Leighton dynamo model. In this model, based on the toroidal flux at the base of the convection zone, bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) are produced with statistical properties obtained from observed distributions. We find that a little quenching in BMR tilt is sufficient to stabilize the dynamo growth. The randomness and nonlinearity in the BMR emergences make the poloidal field unequal and cause some variability in the solar cycle. However, when observed scatter of BMR tilts around Joy's law with a standard deviatio…
Long-term forcing of Sun's coronal field, open flux and cosmic ray modulation potential during grand minima, maxima and regular activity phases by the solar dynamo mechanism
The polar magnetic field precursor is considered to be the most robust and physics-based method for the prediction of the next solar cycle strength. However, to make a reliable prediction of a cycle, is the polar field at the solar minimum of the previous cycle enough or we need the polar field of many previous cycles? To answer this question, we performed several simulations using Babcock-Leighton type flux transport dynamo models with the stochastically forced source for the poloidal field ($α$ term). We show that when the dynamo is operating near the critical dynamo transition or only weakl…
Solar activity has a cyclic nature with the ~11-year Schwabe cycle dominating its variability on the interannual timescale. However, solar cycles are significantly modulated in length, shape and magnitude, from near-spotless grand minima to very active grand maxima. The ~400-year-long direct sunspot-number series is inhomogeneous in quality and too short to study robust parameters of long-term solar variability. The cosmogenic-isotope proxy extends the timescale to twelve millennia and provides crucial observational constraints of the long-term solar dynamo modulation. Here, we present a brief…
Solar activity cycle varies in amplitude. The last Cycle 24 is the weakest in the past century. Sun's activity dominates Earth's space environment. The frequency and intensity of the Sun's activity are accordant with the solar cycle. Hence there are practical needs to know the amplitude of the upcoming Cycle 25. The dynamo-based solar cycle predictions not only provide predictions, but also offer an effective way to evaluate our understanding of the solar cycle. In this article we apply the method of the first successful dynamo-based prediction developed for Cycle 24 to the prediction of Cycle…
Observations reveal a relatively small but statistically significant North-South (NS) asymmetry in sunspot activity varying on a time scale of several solar cycles. This paper proposes a dynamo model for the phenomenon of long-term NS asymmetry. The model separates dynamo equations for magnetic fields of dipolar and quadrupolar equatorial parity. The NS asymmetry results from the superposition of dipolar and quadrupolar fields. Model computations confirm the formerly proposed excitation of the quadrupolar dynamo mode by a dominant dipolar mode mediated by the equator-symmetric fluctuations in …
Recently discovered long-term oscillations of the solar background magnetic field associated with double dynamo waves generated in inner and outer layers of the Sun indicate that the solar activity is heading in the next three decades (2019-2055) to a Modern grand minimum similar to Maunder one. On the other hand, a reconstruction of solar total irradiance suggests that since the Maunder minimum there is an increase in the cycle-averaged total solar irradiance (TSI) by a value of about $1-1.5$ $Wm^{-2}$ closely correlated with an increase of the baseline (average) terrestrial temperature. In o…
The paper by Popova et al. presents an oversimplified mathematical model of solar activity with a claim of predicting/postdicting it for several millennia ahead/backwards. The work contains several flaws devaluating the results: (1) the method is unreliable from the point of view of signal processing (it is impossible to make harmonic predictions for thousands of years based on only 35 years of data) and lacks quality control, (2) the result of post-diction apparently contradicts the observational data. (3) theoretical speculations make little sense, To summarize, a multi-harmonic mathematical…
We study the magnetic activity cycle of HD 4915 using the \ion{Ca}{2} H \& K emission line strengths measured by Keck I/HIRES spectrograph. The star has been observed as a part of California Planet Search Program from 2006 to present. We note decreasing amplitude in the magnetic activity cycle, a pattern suggesting the star's entry into a Magnetic Grand Minimum (MGM) state, reminiscent of the Sun's Maunder and Dalton Minima. We recommend further monitoring of the star to confirm the grand minimum nature of the dynamo, which would provide insight into the state of the Sun's chromosphere and the…
The "Other" Centuries-Long Record of Solar Magnetic Activity Cycles: Lessons From the Stars
Penn State（宾夕法尼亚州立大学）；Center for Solar-Stellar Connections, WDRC（太阳-恒星联系中心，WDRC）；ELTE Eötvös Loránd University（罗兰大学）；Nagoya University（名古屋大学）；Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University（地球环境研究所，名古屋大学）；Institute for Advanced Research, Nagoya University（先进研究院，名古屋大学）；RAL Space, Science and Technology Facilities Council（拉尔夫空间部，英国科学与技术设施委员会）；Riken Nishina Centre（理化学研究所仁科中心）
Long-term sunspot observations and solar activity reconstructions reveal that the Sun occasionally slips into quiescent phases known as solar grand minima, the dynamics during which is not well understood. We use a flux transport dynamo model with stochastic fluctuations in the mean-field and Babcock-Leighton poloidal field source terms to simulate solar cycle variability. Our long-term simulations detect a gradual decay of the polar field during solar grand minima episodes. Although regular active region emergence stops, compromising the Babcock-Leighton mechanism, weak magnetic activity cont…
The hemispheric asymmetry of sunspot activity observed possesses a regular component varying on a time scale of several solar cycles whose origin and properties are currently debated. This paper addresses the question of whether the long-term hemispheric asymmetry can result from random variations of solar dynamo parameters in time and latitude. Scatter in the observed tilt angles of sunspot groups is estimated to infer constraints on fluctuations in the dynamo mechanism for poloidal field regeneration. A dynamo model with fluctuations in the Babcock-Leighton type $α$-effect is designed in acc…
We argue that the most prominent temporal features of the solar dynamo, in particular the Hale cycle, the Suess-de Vries cycle (associated with variations of the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule), Gleissberg-type cycles, and grand minima can be self-consistently explained by double synchronization with the 11.07-years periodic tidal forcing of the Venus-Earth-Jupiter system and the (mainly) 19.86-years periodic motion of the Sun around the barycenter of the solar system. In our numerical simulation, grand minima, and clusters thereof, emerge as intermittent and non-periodic events on millennial time scales,…
