摇晃和搅拌:当邦德遇到Suess-de Vries和Gnevyshev-Ohl时
Shaken and stirred: When Bond meets Suess-de Vries and Gnevyshev-Ohl
摘要:
我们认为,最突出的时间特征的太阳发电机,特别是黑尔周期,(与Gnevyshev-Ohl规则的变化有关),Gleissberg型周期,和大极小期可以用金星-地球-木星系统的11.07年周期引潮力和(主要)19.86年周期引潮力的双同步自洽地解释。太阳围绕太阳系重心的周期运动。在我们的数值模拟中,大极小期及其集群,出现在千年的时间尺度上的间歇性和非周期性事件,非常类似于整个全新世和末次冰期观察到的一系列邦德事件。如果得到证实,这种间歇性的混沌过渡将阻止任何对太阳活动的长期预测,尽管事实上,较短期的黑尔和苏斯-德弗里斯周期是由行星运动计时的。
英文摘要:
We argue that the most prominent temporal features of the solar dynamo, in particular the Hale cycle, the Suess-de Vries cycle (associated with variations of the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule), Gleissberg-type cycles, and grand minima can be self-consistently explained by double synchronization with the 11.07-years periodic tidal forcing of the Venus-Earth-Jupiter system and the (mainly) 19.86-years periodic motion of the Sun around the barycenter of the solar system. In our numerical simulation, grand minima, and clusters thereof, emerge as intermittent and non-periodic events on millennial time scales, very similar to the series of Bond events which were observed throughout the Holocene and the last glacial period. If confirmed, such an intermittent transition to chaos would prevent any long-term prediction of solar activity, notwithstanding the fact that the shorter-term Hale and Suess-de Vries cycles are clocked by planetary motion.
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