In a previous paper we proposed a model to study the dynamics of opinion formation in human societies by a co-evolution process involving two distinct time scales of fast transaction and slower network evolution dynamics. In the transaction dynamics we take into account short range interactions as discussions between individuals and long range interactions to describe the attitude to the overall mood of society. The latter is handled by a uniformly distributed parameter $α$, assigned randomly to each individual, as quenched personal bias. The network evolution dynamics is realized by rewiring the societal network due to state variable changes as a result of transaction dynamics. The main consequence of this complex dynamics is that communities emerge in the social network for a range of values in the ratio between time scales. In this paper we focus our attention on the attitude parameter $α$ and its influence on the conformation of opinion and the size of the resulting communities. We present numerical studies and extract interesting features of the model that can be interpreted in terms of social behaviour.
The Majority Rule is applied to a topology that consists of two coupled random networks, thereby mimicking the modular structure observed in social networks. We calculate analytically the asymptotic behaviour of the model and derive a phase diagram that depends on the frequency of random opinion flips and on the inter-connectivity between the two communities. It is shown that three regimes may take place: a disordered regime, where no collective phenomena takes place; a symmetric regime, where the nodes in both communities reach the same average opinion; an asymmetric regime, where the nodes i…
We propose and investigate different kinetic models for opinion formation, when the opinion formation process depends on an additional independent variable, e.g. a leadership or a spatial variable. More specifically, we consider:(i) opinion dynamics under the effect of opinion leadership, where each individual is characterised not only by its opinion, but also by another independent variable which quantifies leadership qualities; (ii) opinion dynamics modelling political segregation in the `The Big Sort', a phenomenon that US citizens increasingly prefer to live in neighbourhoods with politica…
The emergence of opinion polarization within human communities -- the phenomenon that individuals within a society tend to develop conflicting attitudes related to the greatest diversity of topics -- has been a focus of interest for decades, both from theoretical and modelling points of view. Regarding modelling attempts, an entire scientific field -- opinion dynamics -- has emerged in order to study this and related phenomena. Within this framework, agents' opinions are usually represented by a scalar value which undergoes modification due to interaction with other agents. Under certain condi…
It is interesting and of significant importance to investigate how network structures co-evolve with opinions. The existing models of such co-evolution typically lead to the final states where network nodes either reach a global consensus or break into separated communities, each of which holding its own community consensus. Such results, however, can hardly explain the richness of real-life observations that opinions are always diversified with no global or even community consensus, and people seldom, if not never, totally cut off themselves from dissenters. In this article, we show that, a s…
Recent technological changes have increased connectivity between individuals around the world leading to higher frequency interactions between members of communities that would be otherwise distant and disconnected. This paper examines a model of opinion dynamics in interacting communities and studies how increasing interaction frequency affects the ability for communities to retain distinct identities versus falling into consensus or polarized states in which community identity is lost. We also study the effect (if any) of opinion noise related to a tendency for individuals to assert their in…
Diffusion-driven pattern formation in an opinion dynamical network model
Helmholtz Institute for Functional Marine Biodiversity (HIFMB)（赫尔姆霍兹功能海洋生物多样性研究所）；Carl-von-Ossietzky University, Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment（卡尔·冯·奥西茨基大学，海洋环境化学与生物学研究所）；Alfred-Wegener Institute (AWI), Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research（阿尔弗雷德·魏格纳研究所（AWI），赫尔姆霍兹极地海洋研究中心）
Often exhibiting hierarchical and overlapping structures, communities or modular groups are fundamental and complex in network science. One of the most exploited tools to detect the mesoscopic structure is synchronization. Several phenomena including convergence rate and local convergence under constraints are studied to uncover the existence and features of communities. Here, employing a background of opinion dynamics, we study the divergence of agents' opinions, i.e. the state differences of nodes, in the progress of reaching global consensus and then reveal its connections with hierarchy an…
We study a class of discrete-time multi-agent systems modelling opinion dynamics with decaying confidence. We consider a network of agents where each agent has an opinion. At each time step, the agents exchange their opinion with their neighbors and update it by taking into account only the opinions that differ from their own less than some confidence bound. This confidence bound is decaying: an agent gives repetitively confidence only to its neighbors that approach sufficiently fast its opinion. Essentially, the agents try to reach an agreement with the constraint that it has to be approached…
There are many on-line settings in which users publicly express opinions. A number of these offer mechanisms for other users to evaluate these opinions; a canonical example is Amazon.com, where reviews come with annotations like "26 of 32 people found the following review helpful." Opinion evaluation appears in many off-line settings as well, including market research and political campaigns. Reasoning about the evaluation of an opinion is fundamentally different from reasoning about the opinion itself: rather than asking, "What did Y think of X?", we are asking, "What did Z think of Y's opini…
We here propose a model to simulate the process of opinion formation, which accounts for the mutual affinity between interacting agents. Opinion and affinity evolve self-consistently, manifesting a highly non trivial interplay. A continuous transition is found between single and multiple opinion states. Fractal dimension and signature of critical behaviour are also reported. A rich phenomenology is presented and discussed with reference to corresponding psychological implications.
Opinion formation is one of the most fascinating phenomena observed in human communities, and the ability to predict and to control the dynamics of this process is interesting from the theoretical as well as practical point of view. Although there are many sophisticated models of opinion formation, they often lack the connection with real life data, and there are still sociological processes that need to be explained. To address this, we propose a model describing the dynamics of opinion formation which mimics the process of the virus or disease spreading in the population. The introduced mode…
As scientists we like to think that modern societies and their members base their views, opinions and behaviour on scientific facts. This is not necessarily the case, even though we are all (over-) exposed to information flow through various channels of media, i.e. newspapers, television, radio, internet, and web. It is thought that this is mainly due to the conflicting information on the mass media and to the individual attitude (formed by cultural, educational and environmental factors), that is, one external factor and another personal factor. In this paper we will investigate the dynamical…
Digital communication has made the public discourse considerably more complex, and new actors and strategies have emerged as a result of this seismic shift. Aside from the often-studied interactions among individuals during opinion formation, which have been facilitated on a large scale by social media platforms, the changing role of traditional media and the emerging role of "influencers" are not well understood, and the implications of their engagement strategies arising from the incentive structure of the attention economy even less so. Here we propose a novel opinion dynamics model that ac…
Social susceptibility is defined and analyzed using data from CNN news website. The current models of opinion dynamics, voting, and herding in closed communities are extended, and the community's response to the injection of a group with predetermined and permanent opinions is calculated. A method to estimate the values of possible response in Internet communities that follow a specific developing subject is developed. The level of social influence in a community follows from the statistics of responses ("like" and "dislike" votes) to the comments written by the members of the same community. …
Opinion formation has been gaining increasing research interests recently, and various models have been proposed. These models, however, have their limitations, among which noticeably include (i) it is generally assumed that adjacent nodes holding similar opinions will further reduce their difference in between, while adjacent nodes holding significantly different opinions would either do nothing, or cut the link in between them; (ii) opinion mutation, which describes "opinion changes not due to neighborhood influences" in real life, is typically random. While such models enjoy their simplicit…
Assume two different communities each of which maintain their respective opinions mainly because of the weak interaction between the two communities. In such a case, it is an interesting problem to find the necessary strength of inter-community interaction in order for the two communities to reach a consensus. In this paper, the Information Accumulation System (IAS) model is applied to investigate the problem. With the application of the IAS model, the opinion dynamics of the two-community problem is found to belong to a wider class of two-species problems appearing in population dynamics or i…
We present the result of a dual modeling of opinion network. The model complements the agent-based opinion models by attaching to the social agent (voters) network a political opinion (party) network having its own intrinsic mechanisms of evolution. These two sub-networks form a global network which can be either isolated from or dependent on the external influence. Basically, the evolution of the agent network includes link adding and deleting, the opinion changes influenced by social validation, the political climate, the attractivity of the parties and the interaction between them. The opin…
The complexity of human behaviour can lead to very unpredictable patterns in social activity and structure. Here we demonstrate the instability of a community network controlled by majority ruling, where an element adopts the most popular opinion of their peers. We modelled a community as a square lattice, and performed sequential time step numerical calculations upon each cell in parallel. Depending on the initial ratio of two opinions, the community can segregate either into separate gangs and cliques, or get dominated by a single opinion. We also note that gangs are separated by neutral or …
We study dynamics of opinion formation in a network of coupled agents. As the network evolves to a steady state, opinions of agents within the same community converge faster than those of other agents. This framework allows us to study how network topology and network flow, which mediates the transfer of opinions between agents, both affect the formation of communities. In traditional models of opinion dynamics, agents are coupled via conservative flows, which result in one-to-one opinion transfer. However, social interactions are often non-conservative, resulting in one-to-many transfer of op…
Modern technology has drastically changed the way we interact and consume information. For example, online social platforms allow for seamless communication exchanges at an unprecedented scale. However, we are still bounded by cognitive and temporal constraints. Our attention is limited and extremely valuable. Algorithmic personalisation has become a standard approach to tackle the information overload problem. As result, the exposure to our friends' opinions and our perception about important issues might be distorted. However, the effects of algorithmic gatekeeping on our hyper-connected soc…
We extend simple opinion models to obtain stable but continuously evolving communities. Our scope is to meet a challenge raised by sociologists of generating "structures that last from non lasting entities". We achieve this by introducing two kinds of noise on a standard opinion model. First, agents may interact with other agents even if their opinion difference is large. Second, agents randomly change their opinion at a constant rate. We show that for a large range of control parameters, our model yields stable and fluctuating polarized states, where the composition and mean opinion of the em…
We focus on the majority model in a topology consisting of two coupled fully-connected networks, thereby mimicking the existence of communities in social networks. We show that a transition takes place at a value of the inter-connectivity parameter. Above this value, only symmetric solutions prevail, where both communities agree with each other and reach consensus. Below this value, in contrast, the communities can reach opposite opinions and an asymmetric state is attained. The importance of the interface between the sub-networks is shown.
Cliques are frequently used to model communities: a community is a set of nodes where each pair is equally likely to be connected. But studying real-world communities reveals that they have more structure than that. In particular, the nodes can be ordered in such a way that (almost) all edges in the community lie below a hyperbola. In this paper we present three new models for communities that capture this phenomenon. Our models explain the structure of the communities differently, but we also prove that they are identical in their expressive power. Our models fit to real-world data much bette…
In this paper we examine the role of lies in human social relations by implementing some salient characteristics of deceptive interactions into an opinion formation model, so as to describe the dynamical behaviour of a social network more realistically. In this model we take into account such basic properties of social networks as the dynamics of the intensity of interactions, the influence of public opinion, and the fact that in every human interaction it might be convenient to deceive or withhold information depending on the instantaneous situation of each individual in the network. We find …
We study a stochastic model for the coevolution of a process of opinion formation in a population of agents and the network which underlies their interaction. Interaction links can break when agents fail to reach an opinion agreement. The structure of the network and the distribution of opinions over the population evolve towards a state where the population is divided into disconnected communities whose agents share the same opinion. The statistical properties of this final state vary considerably as the model parameters are changed. Community sizes and their internal connectivity are the qua…
In this paper we study the impact of news media and public surveys on the electoral campaigns for political competitions. We present an agent-based model that addresses the effective influence of surveys in orienting the opinions of voters before elections. The dynamics of electoral consensus is studied as a function of time by investigating different possible scenarios and the effect of periodic surveys, on the opinions of a small community of voters represented as a network of agents connected by realistic social relationships. Our simulations show the possibility to manage opinion consensus…
Modelling opinion dynamics during crises as complex contagion with feedback
The University of Sydney（悉尼大学）；Centre for Complex Systems, The University of Sydney（悉尼大学复杂系统中心）；Sydney Infectious Diseases Institute, The University of Sydney（悉尼大学悉尼传染病研究所）
Contemporary social media networks can be viewed as a break to the early two-step flow model in which influential individuals act as intermediaries between the media and the public for information diffusion. Today's social media platforms enable users to both generate and consume online contents. Users continuously engage and disengage in discussions with varying degrees of interaction leading to formation of distinct online communities. Such communities are often formed at high-level either based on metadata, such as hashtags on Twitter, or popular content triggered by few influential users. …
In social networks, users often engage with like-minded peers. This selective exposure to opinions might result in echo chambers, i.e., political fragmentation and social polarization of user interactions. When echo chambers form, opinions have a bimodal distribution with two peaks on opposite sides. In certain issues, where either extreme positions contain a degree of misinformation, neutral consensus is preferable for promoting discourse. In this paper, we use an opinion dynamics model that naturally forms echo chambers in order to find a feedback mechanism that bridges these communities and…
We consider a PageRank model of opinion formation on Ulam networks, generated by the intermittency map and the typical Chirikov map. The Ulam networks generated by these maps have certain similarities with such scale-free networks as the World Wide Web (WWW), showing an algebraic decay of the PageRank probability. We find that the opinion formation process on Ulam networks have certain similarities but also distinct features comparing to the WWW. We attribute these distinctions to internal differences in network structure of the Ulam and WWW networks. We also analyze the process of opinion for…
In this Chapter, I will explore the use of modeling in order to understand how Science works. I will discuss the modeling of scientific communities, providing a general, non-comprehensive overview of existing models, with a focus on the use of the tools of Agent-Based Modeling and Opinion Dynamics. A special attention will be paid to models inspired by a Bayesian formalism of Opinion Dynamics. The objective of this exploration is to better understand the effect that different conditions might have on the reliability of the opinions of a scientific community. We will see that, by using artifici…
A survey can be represented by a bipartite network as it has two types of nodes, participants and items in which participants can only interact with items. We introduce an agreement threshold to take a minimal projection of the participants linked by shared responses in order to identify opinion-based groups. We show that in American National Election Studies-data, this can identify polarisation along political attitudes. We also take a projection of attitudes that are linked by how participants respond to them. This can be used to show which attitudes are commonly held together in different c…
We investigate the long-time properties of a dynamic, out-of-equilibrium network of individuals holding one of two opinions in a population consisting of two communities of different sizes. Here, while the agents' opinions are fixed, they have a preferred degree which leads them to endlessly create and delete links. Our evolving network is shaped by homophily/heterophily, which is a form of social interaction by which individuals tend to establish links with others having similar/dissimilar opinions. Using Monte Carlo simulations and a detailed mean-field analysis, we study in detail how the s…
Models of continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence have been presented independently by Krause and Hegselmann and by Deffuant et al in 2000. They have raised a fair amount of attention in the communities of social simulation, sociophysics and complexity science. The researchers working on it come from disciplines as physics, mathematics, computer science, social psychology and philosophy. Agents hold continuous opinions which they can gradually adjust if they hear the opinions of others. The idea of bounded confidence is that agents only interact if they are close in opinion to eac…
We investigate a majority-vote model on two-layer multiplex networks with community structure. In our majority-vote model, the edges on each layer encode one type of social relationship and an individual changes their opinion based on the majority opinions of their neighbors in each layer. To capture the fact that different relationships often have different levels of importance, we introduce a layer-preference parameter, which determines the probability of a node to adopt an opinion when the node's neighborhoods on the two layers have different majority opinions. We construct our networks so …
Probabilistic neighbors' selection competes with confirmation bias in a bounded confidence model
CNRS, Complex Systems Institute of Paris Île-de-France (ISC-PIF)（法国国家科学研究中心，巴黎法兰西岛复杂系统研究所）；Laboratoire de Physique Théorique et Modélisation, CNRS-CY Cergy Paris Université（理论与建模物理实验室，CNRS-CY塞尔吉巴黎大学）；EHESS, Centre d’Analyse et de Mathématique Sociales (CAMS)（高等社会科学学院，社会分析与数学中心）；Cergy Paris Université（塞尔吉巴黎大学）
Understanding the evolution of collective beliefs is of critical importance to get insights on the political trends as well as on social tastes and opinions. In particular, it is pivotal to develop analytical models that can predict the beliefs dynamics and capture the interdependence of opinions on different subjects. In this paper we tackle this issue also accounting for the individual endogenous process of opinion evolution, as well as repulsive interactions between individuals' opinions that may arise in the presence of an adversarial attitude of the individuals. Using a mean field approac…
Often in the setting of human-based interactions, the existence of a temporal hierarchy of information plays an important role in diffusion and opinion dynamics within communities. For example at the individual agent level, more recently acquired information may exert greater influence during decision-making processes. To facilitate further exploration of this effect, we introduce an efficient method for modelling temporally asynchronous opinion updates, where the timing of updates depends on the timing of incoming opinion states received from neighbours. The framework enables the introduction…
In human societies opinion formation is mediated by social interactions, consequently taking place on a network of relationships and at the same time influencing the structure of the network and its evolution. To investigate this coevolution of opinions and social interaction structure we develop a dynamic agent-based network model, by taking into account short range interactions like discussions between individuals, long range interactions like a sense for overall mood modulated by the attitudes of individuals, and external field corresponding to outside influence. Moreover, individual biases…
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic reminded us how vaccination can be a divisive topic on which the public conversation is permeated by misleading claims, and thoughts tend to polarize, especially on online social networks. In this work, motivated by recent natural language processing techniques to systematically extract and quantify opinions from text messages, we present a differential framework for bivariate opinion formation dynamics that is coupled with a compartmental model for fake news dissemination. Thanks to a mean-field analysis we demonstrate that the resulting Fokker-Planck system permits to…
Among topics of opinion formation it is of interest to observe the characteristics of networks with a priori distinct communities. As an illustration, we report on the citation network(s) unfolded in the recent decades through web available works belonging to selected members of the Neocreationist and Intelligent Design Proponents (IDP) and the Darwinian Evolution Defenders (DED) communities. An adjacency matrix of tagged nodes is first constructed; it is not symmetric. A generalization of considerations pertaining to the case of networks with biased links, directed or undirected, is thus pres…
Understanding the impact of collective social phenomena in epidemic dynamics is a crucial task to effectively contain the disease spread. In this work we build a mathematical description for assessing the interplay between opinion polarization and the evolution of a disease. The proposed kinetic approach describes the evolution of aggregate quantities characterizing the agents belonging to epidemiologically relevant states, and will show that the spread of the disease is closely related to consensus dynamics distribution in which opinion polarization may emerge. In the present modelling framew…
We investigate the impact of noise and topology on opinion diversity in social networks. We do so by extending well-established models of opinion dynamics to a stochastic setting where agents are subject both to assimilative forces by their local social interactions, as well as to idiosyncratic factors preventing their population from reaching consensus. We model the latter to account for both scenarios where noise is entirely exogenous to peer influence and cases where it is instead endogenous, arising from the agents' desire to maintain some uniqueness in their opinions. We derive a general …
Quantum Mechanics of Human Perception, Behaviour and Decision-Making: A Do-It-Yourself Model Kit for Modelling Optical Illusions and Opinion Formation in Social Networks
Social impacts and degrees of organization inherent to opinion formation for interacting agents on networks present interesting questions of general interest from physics to sociology. We present a quantitative analysis of a case implying an evolving small size network, i.e. that inherent to the ongoing debate between modern creationists (most are Intelligent Design (ID) proponents (IDP)) and Darwin's theory of Evolution Defenders (DED)). This study is carried out by analyzing the structural properties of the citation network unfolded in the recent decades by publishing works belonging to memb…
