We here propose a model to simulate the process of opinion formation, which accounts for the mutual affinity between interacting agents. Opinion and affinity evolve self-consistently, manifesting a highly non trivial interplay. A continuous transition is found between single and multiple opinion states. Fractal dimension and signature of critical behaviour are also reported. A rich phenomenology is presented and discussed with reference to corresponding psychological implications.
We here discuss the process of opinion formation in an open community where agents are made to interact and consequently update their beliefs. New actors (birth) are assumed to replace individuals that abandon the community (deaths). This dynamics is simulated in the framework of a simplified model that accounts for mutual affinity between agents. A rich phenomenology is presented and discussed with reference to the original (closed group) setting. Numerical findings are supported by analytical calculations.
We propose and investigate different kinetic models for opinion formation, when the opinion formation process depends on an additional independent variable, e.g. a leadership or a spatial variable. More specifically, we consider:(i) opinion dynamics under the effect of opinion leadership, where each individual is characterised not only by its opinion, but also by another independent variable which quantifies leadership qualities; (ii) opinion dynamics modelling political segregation in the `The Big Sort', a phenomenon that US citizens increasingly prefer to live in neighbourhoods with politica…
We here discuss the process of opinion formation in an open community where agents are made to interact and consequently update their beliefs. New actors (birth) are assumed to replace individuals that abandon the community (deaths). This dynamics is simulated in the framework of a simplified model that accounts for mutual affinity between agents. A rich phenomenology is presented and discussed with reference to the original (closed group) setting. Numerical findings are supported by analytical calculations.
Opinion formation has been gaining increasing research interests recently, and various models have been proposed. These models, however, have their limitations, among which noticeably include (i) it is generally assumed that adjacent nodes holding similar opinions will further reduce their difference in between, while adjacent nodes holding significantly different opinions would either do nothing, or cut the link in between them; (ii) opinion mutation, which describes "opinion changes not due to neighborhood influences" in real life, is typically random. While such models enjoy their simplicit…
The complexity of human behaviour can lead to very unpredictable patterns in social activity and structure. Here we demonstrate the instability of a community network controlled by majority ruling, where an element adopts the most popular opinion of their peers. We modelled a community as a square lattice, and performed sequential time step numerical calculations upon each cell in parallel. Depending on the initial ratio of two opinions, the community can segregate either into separate gangs and cliques, or get dominated by a single opinion. We also note that gangs are separated by neutral or …
We present the result of a dual modeling of opinion network. The model complements the agent-based opinion models by attaching to the social agent (voters) network a political opinion (party) network having its own intrinsic mechanisms of evolution. These two sub-networks form a global network which can be either isolated from or dependent on the external influence. Basically, the evolution of the agent network includes link adding and deleting, the opinion changes influenced by social validation, the political climate, the attractivity of the parties and the interaction between them. The opin…
Modern technology has drastically changed the way we interact and consume information. For example, online social platforms allow for seamless communication exchanges at an unprecedented scale. However, we are still bounded by cognitive and temporal constraints. Our attention is limited and extremely valuable. Algorithmic personalisation has become a standard approach to tackle the information overload problem. As result, the exposure to our friends' opinions and our perception about important issues might be distorted. However, the effects of algorithmic gatekeeping on our hyper-connected soc…
Statistical mechanics has proven to be able to capture the fundamental rules underlying phenomena of social aggregation and opinion dynamics, well studied in disciplines like sociology and psychology. This approach is based on the underlying paradigm that the interesting dynamics of multi-agent systems emerge from the correct definition of few parameters governing the evolution of each individual. Into this context, we propose a particular model of opinion dynamics based on the psychological construct named "cognitive dissonance". Our system is made of interacting individuals, the agents, each…
Digital communication has made the public discourse considerably more complex, and new actors and strategies have emerged as a result of this seismic shift. Aside from the often-studied interactions among individuals during opinion formation, which have been facilitated on a large scale by social media platforms, the changing role of traditional media and the emerging role of "influencers" are not well understood, and the implications of their engagement strategies arising from the incentive structure of the attention economy even less so. Here we propose a novel opinion dynamics model that ac…
In this paper we study the impact of news media and public surveys on the electoral campaigns for political competitions. We present an agent-based model that addresses the effective influence of surveys in orienting the opinions of voters before elections. The dynamics of electoral consensus is studied as a function of time by investigating different possible scenarios and the effect of periodic surveys, on the opinions of a small community of voters represented as a network of agents connected by realistic social relationships. Our simulations show the possibility to manage opinion consensus…
In a previous paper we proposed a model to study the dynamics of opinion formation in human societies by a co-evolution process involving two distinct time scales of fast transaction and slower network evolution dynamics. In the transaction dynamics we take into account short range interactions as discussions between individuals and long range interactions to describe the attitude to the overall mood of society. The latter is handled by a uniformly distributed parameter $α$, assigned randomly to each individual, as quenched personal bias. The network evolution dynamics is realized by rewiring …
The emergence of opinion polarization within human communities -- the phenomenon that individuals within a society tend to develop conflicting attitudes related to the greatest diversity of topics -- has been a focus of interest for decades, both from theoretical and modelling points of view. Regarding modelling attempts, an entire scientific field -- opinion dynamics -- has emerged in order to study this and related phenomena. Within this framework, agents' opinions are usually represented by a scalar value which undergoes modification due to interaction with other agents. Under certain condi…
In this Chapter, I will explore the use of modeling in order to understand how Science works. I will discuss the modeling of scientific communities, providing a general, non-comprehensive overview of existing models, with a focus on the use of the tools of Agent-Based Modeling and Opinion Dynamics. A special attention will be paid to models inspired by a Bayesian formalism of Opinion Dynamics. The objective of this exploration is to better understand the effect that different conditions might have on the reliability of the opinions of a scientific community. We will see that, by using artifici…
When minor issues matter: symmetries, pluralism, and polarization in similarity-based opinion dynamics
RIKEN Institute of Physical and Chemical Research（理化学研究所）；University of California Irvine（加州大学尔湾分校）；University of California San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校）；Dartmouth College（达特茅斯学院）
Network dynamics has always been a meaningful topic deserving exploration in the realm of academy. previous network models contain two parts: (1) generating structure as per user property; (2) changing property as per network structure. Properties in these models, however, cannot be interpreted to concept in prevalent social theories or empirical truth. Also, they usually treat everyone in an uniform fashion. While such assumption is quite misguiding, and thus saliently limits their performance. To overcome these flaws, we devise a personalized evolving model for social network and opinion (PE…
As scientists we like to think that modern societies and their members base their views, opinions and behaviour on scientific facts. This is not necessarily the case, even though we are all (over-) exposed to information flow through various channels of media, i.e. newspapers, television, radio, internet, and web. It is thought that this is mainly due to the conflicting information on the mass media and to the individual attitude (formed by cultural, educational and environmental factors), that is, one external factor and another personal factor. In this paper we will investigate the dynamical…
Modelling opinion dynamics during crises as complex contagion with feedback
The University of Sydney（悉尼大学）；Centre for Complex Systems, The University of Sydney（悉尼大学复杂系统中心）；Sydney Infectious Diseases Institute, The University of Sydney（悉尼大学悉尼传染病研究所）
Quantum Mechanics of Human Perception, Behaviour and Decision-Making: A Do-It-Yourself Model Kit for Modelling Optical Illusions and Opinion Formation in Social Networks
Statistical mechanics has proven to be able to capture the fundamental rules underlying phenomena of social aggregation and opinion dynamics, well studied in disciplines like sociology and psychology. This approach is based on the underlying paradigm that the interesting dynamics of multi-agent systems emerge from the correct definition of few parameters governing the evolution of each individual. Into this context, we propose a new model of opinion dynamics based on the psychological construct named "cognitive dissonance". Our system is made of interacting individuals, the agents, each bearin…
Often in the setting of human-based interactions, the existence of a temporal hierarchy of information plays an important role in diffusion and opinion dynamics within communities. For example at the individual agent level, more recently acquired information may exert greater influence during decision-making processes. To facilitate further exploration of this effect, we introduce an efficient method for modelling temporally asynchronous opinion updates, where the timing of updates depends on the timing of incoming opinion states received from neighbours. The framework enables the introduction…
Modelling efforts in opinion dynamics have to a large extent ignored that opinion exchange between individuals can also have an effect on how willing they are to express their opinion publicly. Here, we introduce a model of public opinion expression. Two groups of agents with different opinion on an issue interact with each other, changing the willingness to express their opinion according to whether they perceive themselves as part of the majority or minority opinion. We formulate the model as a multi-group majority game and investigate the Nash equilibria. We also provide a dynamical systems…
Individuals are increasingly exposed to news and opinion from beyond national borders in a world that is becoming more and more globalised. This news and opinion is often concentrated in clusters of ideological homophily such as political parties, factions or interest groups. But how does exposure to cross-border information affect the diffusion of ideas across national and ideological borders? Here we develop a non-linear mathematical model for the cross-border spread of two ideologies by using an epidemiological approach. The populations of each country are assumed to be a constant and homog…
Understanding the impact of collective social phenomena in epidemic dynamics is a crucial task to effectively contain the disease spread. In this work we build a mathematical description for assessing the interplay between opinion polarization and the evolution of a disease. The proposed kinetic approach describes the evolution of aggregate quantities characterizing the agents belonging to epidemiologically relevant states, and will show that the spread of the disease is closely related to consensus dynamics distribution in which opinion polarization may emerge. In the present modelling framew…
In this study a consensus building process based on a combination of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Delphi method is presented and applied to the decision-making process about alternative policy measures to promote cycling mobility. An agent-based model is here used to reproduce the same process of convergence of opinions, with the aim to understand the role of network topology, stakeholder influence and other sensitive variables on the emergence of consensus. It can be a useful tool for decision-makers to guide them in planning effective participation processes.
Opinion dynamics concerns social processes through which populations or groups of individuals agree or disagree on specific issues. As such, modelling opinion dynamics represents an important research area that has been progressively acquiring relevance in many different domains. Existing approaches have mostly represented opinions through discrete binary or continuous variables by exploring a whole panoply of cases: e.g. independence, noise, external effects, multiple issues. In most of these cases the crucial ingredient is an attractive dynamics through which similar or similar enough agents…
We study a class of discrete-time multi-agent systems modelling opinion dynamics with decaying confidence. We consider a network of agents where each agent has an opinion. At each time step, the agents exchange their opinion with their neighbors and update it by taking into account only the opinions that differ from their own less than some confidence bound. This confidence bound is decaying: an agent gives repetitively confidence only to its neighbors that approach sufficiently fast its opinion. Essentially, the agents try to reach an agreement with the constraint that it has to be approached…
Recently, social phenomena have received a lot of attention not only from social scientists, but also from physicists, mathematicians and computer scientists, in the emerging interdisciplinary field of complex system science. Opinion dynamics is one of the processes studied, since opinions are the drivers of human behaviour, and play a crucial role in many global challenges that our complex world and societies are facing: global financial crises, global pandemics, growth of cities, urbanisation and migration patterns, and last but not least important, climate change and environmental sustainab…
Clustering in co-evolving opinion dynamics: reduced SPDE models
Zuse Institute Berlin（柏林齐泽研究所）；Institut für Mathematik und Informatik, Freie Universität Berlin（柏林自由大学数学与计算机科学研究所）；University of Bath（巴斯大学）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）
Polarization between groups is a major topic of contemporary societal debate as well as of research into intergroup relations. Formal modelers of opinion dynamics try to explain how intergroup polarization can arise from simple first principles of interactions within and between groups. Models have been proposed in which intergroup attitudes affect social influence in the form of homophily or xenophobia, elaborated as fixed tendencies of individuals to interact more with in-group members, be more open to influence from in-group members and perhaps even distance oneself from attitudes of outgro…
In seeking to explain aspects of real-world economies that defy easy understanding when analysed via conventional means, Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller has since 2017 introduced and developed the idea of Narrative Economics, where observable economic factors such as the dynamics of prices in asset markets are explained largely as a consequence of the narratives (i.e., the stories) heard, told, and believed by participants in those markets. Shiller argues that otherwise irrational and difficult-to-explain behaviors, such as investors participating in highly volatile cryptocurrency markets, are b…
Day by day, people exchange opinions about a given new with relatives, friends, and coworkers. In most cases, they get informed about a given issue by reading newspapers, listening to the radio, or watching TV, i.e., through a Mass Media (MM). However, the importance of a given new can be stimulated by the Media by assigning newspaper's pages or time in TV programs. In this sense, we say that the Media has the power to "set the agenda", i.e., it decides which new is important and which is not. On the other hand, the Media can know people's concerns through, for instance, websites or blogs wher…
