Using the regenerative scheme of Comets, Fernández and Ferrari (2002), we establish a functional central limit theorem (FCLT) for discrete time stochastic processes (chains) with summable memory decay. Furthermore, under stronger assumptions on the memory decay, we identify the limiting variance in terms of the process only. As applications, we define classes of binary autoregressive processes and power-law Ising chains for which the FCLT is fulfilled.
The standard functional central limit theorem for a renewal process with finite mean and variance, results in a Brownian motion limit. This note shows how to obtain a Brownian bridge process by a direct procedure that does not involve conditioning. Several examples are also considered.
We review the theory of regenerative processes, which are processes that can be intuitively seen as comprising of i.i.d.\ cycles. Although we focus on the classical definition, we present a more general definition that allows for some form of dependence between two adjacent cycles, and mention two further extensions of the second definition. We mention the connection of regenerative processes to the single-server queue, to multi-server queues and more generally to Harris ergodic Markov chains and processes. In the main theorem, we pay some attention to the conditions under which a limiting dis…
We derive an invariance principle for the lift to the rough path topology of stochastic processes with delayed regenerative increments under an optimal moment condition. An interesting feature of the result is the emergence of area anomaly, a correction term in the second level of the limiting rough path which is identified as the average stochastic area on a regeneration interval. A few applications include random walks in random environment and additive functionals of recurrent Markov chains. The result is formulated in the p-variation settings, where a rough Donsker Theorem is available und…
We prove Berry-Esseen type rates of convergence for central limit theorems (CLTs) of regenerative processes which generalize previous results of Bolthausen under weaker moment assumptions. We then show how this general result can be applied to obtain rates of convergence for (1) CLTs for additive functionals of positive recurrent Markov chains under certain conditions on the strong mixing coefficients, and (2) annealed CLTs for certain ballistic random walks in random environments.
Random spanning trees are among the most prominent determinantal point processes. We give four examples of random spanning trees on ladder-like graphs whose rungs form stationary renewal processes or regenerative processes of order two, respectively. Up to a trivial thinning with additional coin flips, for each of the first two examples the renewal processes exhaust the whole class of stationary regenerative (of order one) determinantal point processes. We also give an example of a regenerative process of order two that has no representation in terms of a random spanning tree. Our examples ill…
We study Random Walks in an i.i.d. Random Environment (RWRE) defined on $b$-regular trees. We prove a functional central limit theorem (FCLT) for transient processes, under a moment condition on the environment. We emphasize that we make no uniform ellipticity assumptions. Our approach relies on regenerative levels, i.e. levels that are visited exactly once. On the way, we prove that the distance between consecutive regenerative levels have a geometrically decaying tail. In the second part of this paper, we apply our results to Linearly Edge-Reinforced Random Walk (LERRW) to prove FCLT when th…
We present a perfect simulation algorithm for stationary processes indexed by Z, with summable memory decay. Depending on the decay, we construct the process on finite or semi-infinite intervals, explicitly from an i.i.d. uniform sequence. Even though the process has infinite memory, its value at time 0 depends only on a finite, but random, number of these uniform variables. The algorithm is based on a recent regenerative construction of these measures by Ferrari, Maass, Mart{\'ı}nez and Ney. As applications, we discuss the perfect simulation of binary autoregressions and Markov chains on the …
A functional limit theorem is established for the partial-sum process of a class of stationary sequences which exhibit both heavy tails and long-range dependence. The stationary sequence is constructed using multiple stochastic integrals with heavy-tailed marginal distribution. Furthermore, the multiple stochastic integrals are built upon a large family of dynamical systems that are ergodic and conservative, leading to the long-range dependence phenomenon of the model. The limits constitute a new class of self-similar processes with stationary increments. They are represented by multiple stabl…
We consider an infinite balls-in-boxes occupancy scheme with boxes organised in nested hierarchy, and random probabilities of boxes defined in terms of iterated fragmentation of a unit mass. We obtain a multivariate functional limit theorem for the cumulative occupancy counts as the number of balls approaches infinity. In the case of fragmentation driven by a homogeneous residual allocation model our result generalises the functional central limit theorem for the block counts in Ewens' and more general regenerative partitions.
We consider a driven tagged particle in a symmetric exclusion process on Z with a removal rule. In this process, untagged particles are removed once they jump to the left of the tagged particle. We investigate the behavior of the displacement of the tagged particle and prove limit theorems of it: an (annealed) law of large numbers, a central limit theorem, and a large deviation principle. We also characterize a class of ergodic measures for the environment process. Our approach is based on analyzing two auxiliary processes with associated martingales and a regenerative structure.
This paper studies the asymptotic distribution of descents $\des(w)$ in a permutation $w$, and its inverse, distributed according to the Mallows measure. The Mallows measure is a non-uniform probability measure on permutations introduced to study ranked data. Under this measure, permutations are weighted according to the number of inversions they contain, with the weighting controlled by a parameter $q$. The main results are a Berry-Esseen theorem for $\des(w)+\des(w^{-1})$ as well as a joint central limit theorem for $(\des(w),\des(w^{-1}))$ to a bivariate normal with a non-trivial correlatio…
In this paper we study the almost sure central limit theorem started from a point for additive functionals of a stationary and ergodic Markov chain via a martingale approximation in the almost sure sense. As a consequence we derive the quenched CLT for additive functionals or reversible Markov chains.
We present a new approach to the bootstrap for chains of infinite order taking values on a finite alphabet. It is based on a sequential Bootstrap Central Limit Theorem for the sequence of canonical Markov approximations of the chain of infinite order. Combined with previous results on the rate of approximation this leads to a Central Limit Theorem for the bootstrapped estimator of the sample mean which is the main result of this paper.
In this paper we obtain the central limit theorem for triangular arrays of non-homogeneous Markov chains under a condition imposed to the maximal coefficient of correlation. The proofs are based on martingale techniques and a sharp lower bound estimate for the variance of partial sums. The results complement an important central limit theorem of Dobrushin based on the contraction coefficient.
We are interested in a fragmentation process. We observe fragments frozen when their sizes are less than $ε$ ($ε$ > 0). Is is known ([BM05]) that the empirical measure of these fragments converges in law, under some renormalization. In [HK11], the authors show a bound for the rate of convergence. Here, we show a central-limit theorem, under some assumptions.
The main objective of this article is to establish a central limit theorem for additive three-variable functionals of bifurcating Markov chains. We thus extend the central limit theorem under point-wise ergodic conditions studied in Bitseki-Delmas (2022) and to a lesser extent, the results of Bitseki-Delmas (2022) on central limit theorem under $L^{2}$ ergodic conditions. Our results also extend and complement those of Guyon (2007) and Delmas and Marsalle (2010). In particular, when the ergodic rate of convergence is greater than $1/\sqrt{2}$, we have, for certain class of functions, that the …
Bifurcating Markov chains (BMC) are Markov chains indexed by a full binary tree representing the evolution of a trait along a population where each individual has two children. We provide a central limit theorem for additive functionals of BMC under $L^2$-ergodic conditions with three different regimes. This completes the pointwise approach developed in a previous work. As application, we study the elementary case of symmetric bifurcating autoregressive process, which justify the non-trivial hypothesis considered on the kernel transition of the BMC. We illustrate in this example the phase tran…
The class of nonlinear Markov processes is characterized by the dependence of the current state of the process on its current distribution in addition to the dependence on the previous state. Due to this feature, these processes are characterized by complex limit behavior and ergodic properties, for which the usual criteria for Markov processes are not sufficient. Being a subclass of nonlinear Markov processes, nonlinear Markov chains have inherited these features. In this paper, conditions for the fulfillment of the central limit theorem for homogeneous nonlinear Markov chains in discrete tim…
We study scaling limits of non-increasing Markov chains with values in the set of non-negative integers, under the assumption that the large jump events are rare and happen at rates that behave like a negative power of the current state. We show that the chain starting from $n$ and appropriately rescaled, converges in distribution, as $n\rightarrow \infty$, to a non-increasing self-similar Markov process. This convergence holds jointly with that of the rescaled absorption time to the time at which the self-similar Markov process reaches first 0. We discuss various applications to the study of …
Fix $q\neq 1$, and sample $w\in S_n$ from the Mallows measure. We study the distribution of $C_i(w)$, the number of $i$-cycles, as $n$ grows large. When $q<1$, they are jointly Gaussian, and this more or less follows from known ideas, but the regime $q>1$ behaves quite differently. In particular, we show that the even cycles $C_{2i}(w)$ have a mean and variance of order $n$, and jointly converge to Gaussian random variables, while the odd cycles $C_{2i+1}(w)$ have a bounded mean and variance, and converge to $C_{2i+1}(w^{even})$ or $C_{2i+1}(w^{odd})$ for some explicit random permutations $w^{…
This paper provides a Central Limit Theorem (CLT) for a process $\{θ_n, n\geq 0\}$ satisfying a stochastic approximation (SA) equation of the form $θ_{n+1} = θ_n + γ_{n+1} H(θ_n,X_{n+1})$; a CLT for the associated average sequence is also established. The originality of this paper is to address the case of controlled Markov chain dynamics $\{X_n, n\geq 0 \}$ and the case of multiple targets. The framework also accomodates (randomly) truncated SA algorithms. Sufficient conditions for CLT's to hold are provided as well as comments on how these conditions extend previous works (such as independen…
In the paper we propose certain conditions, relatively easy to verify, which ensure the central limit theorem for some general class of Markov chains. To justify the usefulness of our criterion, we further verify it for a particular discrete-time Markov dynamical system. From the application point of view, the examined system provides a useful tool in analysing the stochastic dynamics of gene expression in prokaryotes.
Ordinary differential equations obtained as limits of Markov processes appear in many settings. They may arise by scaling large systems, or by averaging rapidly fluctuating systems, or in systems involving multiple time-scales, by a combination of the two. Motivated by models with multiple time-scales arising in systems biology, we present a general approach to proving a central limit theorem capturing the fluctuations of the original model around the deterministic limit. The central limit theorem provides a method for deriving an appropriate diffusion (Langevin) approximation.
In this paper we give sufficient conditions for the almost sure central limit theorem started at a point, known under the name of quenched central limit theorem. This is achieved by using a new idea of conditioning with respect to both the past and the future of the Markov chain. As applications we provide a new sufficient projective conditions for the quenched CLT.
Let $Q$ be a transition probability on a measurable space $E$, let $(X\_n)\_n$ be a Markov chain associated to $Q$, and let $ξ$ be a real-valued measurable function on $E$, and $S\_n = \sum\_{k=1}^{n} ξ(X\_k)$. Under functional hypotheses on the action of $Q$ and its Fourier kernels $Q(t)$, we investigate the rate of convergence in the central limit theorem for the sequence $(\frac{S\_n}{\sqrt n})\_n$. According to the hypotheses, we prove that the rate is, either $O(n^{-\fracτ{2}})$ for all $τ<1$, or $O(n^{-{1/2}})$. We apply the spectral method of Nagaev which is improved by using a perturba…
We investigate the convergence in distribution of sequential empirical processes of dependent data indexed by a class of functions F. Our technique is suitable for processes that satisfy a multiple mixing condition on a space of functions which differs from the class F. This situation occurs in the case of data arising from dynamical systems or Markov chains, for which the Perron--Frobenius or Markov operator, respectively, has a spectral gap on a restricted space. We provide applications to iterative Lipschitz models that contract on average.
Suppose that X_n, n>=0 is a stationary Markov chain and V is a certain function on a phase space of the chain, called an observanle. We say that the observable satisfies the central limit theorem (C.L.T.) if Y_n:=N^{-1/2}\sum_{n=0}^NV(X_n) converge in law to a normal random variable, as N goes to infinity. For a stationary Markov chain with the L^2 spectral gap the theorem holds for all V such that V(X_0) is centered and square integrable, see Gordin. The purpose of this article is to characterize a family of observables V for which the C.L.T. holds for a class of birth and death chains whose …
In this paper, we investigate the functional central limit theorem for stochastic processes associated to partial sums of additive functionals of reversible Markov chains with general spate space, under the normalization standard deviation of partial sums. For this case, we show that the functional central limit theorem is equivalent to the fact that the variance of partial sums is regularly varying with exponent 1 and the partial sums satisfy the CLT. It is also equivalent to the conditional CLT.
We consider a stochastic directed graph on the integers whereby a directed edge between $i$ and a larger integer $j$ exists with probability $p_{j-i}$ depending solely on the distance between the two integers. Under broad conditions, we identify a regenerative structure that enables us to prove limit theorems for the maximal path length in a long chunk of the graph. The model is an extension of a special case of graphs studied by Foss and Konstantopoulos, Markov Process and Related Fields, 9, 413-468. We then consider a similar type of graph but on the `slab' $\Z \times I$, where $I$ is a fini…
In this paper we study the central limit theorem for additive functionals of stationary Markov chains with general state space by using a new idea involving conditioning with respect to both the past and future of the chain. Practically, we show that any additive functionals of a stationary and totally ergodic Markov chain with the variance of S_n divided by n uniformly bounded, satisfies a square root central limit theorem with a random centering. We do not assume that the Markov chain is irreducible and aperiodic. However, the random centering is not needed if the Markov chain satisfies stro…
Here we obtain the exact asymptotics for large and moderate deviations, strong law of large numbers and central limit theorem for chains with unbounded variable length memory.
In 1956, Dobrushin proved a definitive central limit theorem for non-homogeneous Markov chains. In this note, a shorter and different proof elucidating more the assumptions is given through martingale approximation.
The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) for additive functionals of Markov chains is a well known result with a long history. In this paper we present applications to two finite-memory versions of the Elephant Random Walk, solving a problem from arXiv:1812.01915. We also present a derivation of the CLT for additive functionals of finite state Markov chains, which is based on positive recurrence, the CLT for IID sequences and some elementary linear algebra, and which focuses on characterization of the variance.
We consider the Fleming--Viot particle system associated with a continuous-time Markov chain in a finite space. Assuming irreducibility, it is known that the particle system possesses a unique stationary distribution, under which its empirical measure converges to the quasistationary distribution of the Markov chain. We complement this Law of Large Numbers with a Central Limit Theorem. Our proof essentially relies on elementary computations on the infinitesimal generator of the Fleming--Viot particle system, and involves the so-called $π$-return process in the expression of the asymptotic vari…
Let $Q$ be a transition probability on a measurable space $E$ which admits an invariant probability measure, let $(X_n)_n$ be a Markov chain associated to $Q$, and let $ξ$ be a real-valued measurable function on $E$, and $S_n=\sum _{k=1}^nξ(X_k)$. Under functional hypotheses on the action of $Q$ and the Fourier kernels $Q(t)$, we investigate the rate of convergence in the central limit theorem for the sequence $(\frac{S_n}{\sqrt{n}})_n$. According to the hypotheses, we prove that the rate is, either $\mathrm{O}(n^{-τ/{2}})$ for all $τ<1$, or $\mathrm{O}(n^{-{1}/{2}})$. We apply the spectral Na…
The asymptotic variance is an important criterion to evaluate the performance of Markov chains, especially for the central limit theorems. We give the variational formulas for the asymptotic variance of discrete-time (non-reversible) Markov chains on general state space. The variational formulas provide many applications, extending the classical Peskun's comparison theorem to non-reversible Markov chains, and obtaining several comparison theorems between Markov chains with various perturbations.
In this paper we study the additive functionals of Markov chains via conditioning with respect to both past and future of the chain. We shall point out new sufficient projective conditions, which assure that the variance of partial sums of n consecutive random variables of a stationary Markov chain is linear in n. The paper also addresses the central limit theorem problem and is listing several open questions.
Our purpose is to prove central limit theorem for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chain under the condition of uniform convergence of transition probability matrices for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chain in Cesàro sense. Furthermore, we obtain a corresponding moderate deviation theorem for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chain by Gärtner-Ellis theorem and exponential equivalent method.
We prove an invariance principle (functional central limit theorem) for a vector-valued additive functional of a Markov chain for almost every starting point with respect to an ergodic equilibrium distribution. The hypothesis is a moment bound on the resolvent.
In this paper, we give estimates of the quadratic transportation cost in the conditional central limit theorem for a large class of dependent sequences. Applications to irreducible Markov chains, dynamical systems generated by intermittent maps and $τ$-mixing sequences are given.
We develop a martingale approximation approach to studying the limiting behavior of quadratic forms of Markov chains. We use the technique to examine the asymptotic behavior of lag-window estimators in time series and we apply the results to Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. As another illustration, we use the method to derive a central limit theorem for U-statistics with varying kernels.
The goal of this expository paper is to describe conditions which guarantee a central limit theorem for functionals of general state space Markov chains. This is done with a view towards Markov chain Monte Carlo settings and hence the focus is on the connections between drift and mixing conditions and their implications. In particular, we consider three commonly cited central limit theorems and discuss their relationship to classical results for mixing processes. Several motivating examples are given which range from toy one-dimensional settings to complicated settings encountered in Markov ch…
The purpose of this work is to establish a central limit theorem that can be applied to a particular form of Markov chains, including the number of descents in a random permutation of $\mathfrak{S}_n$, two-type generalized P{ó}lya urns, and some other urn models.
This paper studies limit theorems for Markov Chains with general state space under conditions which imply subgeometric ergodicity. We obtain a central limit theorem and moderate deviation principles for additive not necessarily bounded functional of the Markov chains under drift and minorization conditions which are weaker than the Foster-Lyapunov conditions. The regeneration-split chain method and a precise control of the modulated moment of the hitting time to small sets are employed in the proof.
We prove a central limit theorem for a class of additive processes that arise naturally in the theory of finite horizon Markov decision problems. The main theorem generalizes a classic result of Dobrushin (1956) for temporally non-homogeneous Markov chains, and the principal innovation is that here the summands are permitted to depend on both the current state and a bounded number of future states of the chain. We show through several examples that this added flexibility gives one a direct path to asymptotic normality of the optimal total reward of finite horizon Markov decision problems. The …
Bifurcating Markov chains (BMC) are Markov chains indexed by a full binary tree representing the evolution of a trait along a population where each individual has two children. We provide a central limit theorem for general additive functionals of BMC, and prove the existence of three regimes. This corresponds to a competition between the reproducing rate (each individual has two children) and the ergodicity rate for the evolution of the trait. This is in contrast with the work of Guyon (2007), where the considered additive functionals are sums of martingale increments, and only one regime app…
