Vladimir Vovk
This paper suggests a perfect-information game, along the lines of Levy's characterization of Brownian motion, that formalizes the process of Brownian motion in game-theoretic probability. This is perhaps the simplest situation where probability emerges in a non-stochastic environment.
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A multi-player optimal stopping game based on a spider Brownian bridge
研究由蜘蛛布朗桥驱动的多人非零和最优停止博弈，先分析两人情形下纳什均衡存在及对称情形下唯一性的条件并举例说明多均衡情况，后扩展到多人情形并给出相应存在条件。
A Brownian ratchet is a one-dimensional diffusion process that drifts toward a minimum of a periodic asymmetric sawtooth potential. A flashing Brownian ratchet is a process that alternates between two regimes, a one-dimensional Brownian motion and a Brownian ratchet, producing directed motion. These processes have been of interest to physicists and biologists for nearly 25 years. The flashing Brownian ratchet is the process that motivated Parrondo's paradox, in which two fair games of chance, when alternated, produce a winning game. Parrondo's games are relatively simple, being discrete in tim…
We study a two-player zero-sum game in continuous time, where the payoff-a running cost-depends on a Brownian motion. This Brownian motion is observed in real time by one of the players. The other one observes only the actions of his opponent. We prove that the game has a value and characterize it as the largest convex subsolution of a Hamilton-Jacobi equation on the space of probability measures.
This article analyzes the behavior of a Brownian fluctuation process under a mixed strategic game setup. A variant of a compound Brownian motion has been newly proposed, which is called the Shifted Brownian Fluctuation Process to predict the turning points of a stochastic process. This compound process evolves until it reaches one step prior to the turning point. The Shifted Brownian Fluctuation Game has been constructed based on this new process to find the optimal moment of actions. Analytically tractable results are obtained by using the fluctuation theory and the mixed strategy game theory…
In this paper we study Backward Stochastic Differential Equations with two reflecting right continuous with left limits obstacles (or barriers) when the noise is given by Brownian motion and a Poisson random measure mutually independent. The jumps of the obstacle processes could be either predictable or inaccessible. We show existence and uniqueness of the solution when the barriers are completely separated and the generator uniformly Lipschitz. We do not assume the existence of a difference of supermartingales between the obstacles. As an application, we show that the related mixed zero-sum d…
Doubly reflected BSDEs with default time under stochastic Lipschitz coefficients: Filtration links and generalized Dynkin games
该研究在渐进扩大滤子下，针对带违约时间的随机Lipschitz系数DRBSDEs，建立解的存在唯一性，探讨其与参考滤子中方程的关系，并刻画了相关非线性Dynkin博弈的价值过程与鞍点。
We consider a multidimentional Brownian control problem (BCP) with model uncertainty that formally emerges from a multiclass M/M/1 queueing control problem under heavy-traffic with model uncertainty. The BCP is formulated as a multidimensional stochastic differential game with two players: a minimizer that has an equivalent role to the decision maker in the queueing control problem and a maximizer whose role is to set up the uncertainty of the model. The dynamics are driven by a Brownian motion. We show that a state-space collapse propery holds. That is, the multidimensional BCP can be reduced…
A Dynkin Game with Independent Processes and Incomplete Information
针对两人非零和不完全信息停止型Dynkin博弈，分析独立不可观测布朗运动场景下的均衡，证明奖励函数满足增长条件时存在无穷多无穷期望收益纳什均衡，而有限期望收益均衡仅要求至少一方立即停止，结果适用于纯与混合策略。
From tug-of-war to Brownian Boost: explicit ODE solutions for player-funded stochastic-differential games
本文研究了布朗运动助推博弈，通过求解耦合的一阶非线性ODE对玩家预期收益的导数，显式计算了时间齐性的马尔可夫完美纳什均衡，揭示了拔河博弈的关键特征。
We give a general method for constructing a deterministic strategy of Reality from a randomized strategy in game-theoretic probability. The construction can be seen as derandomization in game-theoretic probability.
We consider strong law of large numbers (SLLN) in the framework of game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk (2001). We prove several versions of SLLN for the case that Reality's moves are unbounded. Our game-theoretic versions of SLLN largely correspond to standard measure-theoretic results. However game-theoretic proofs are different from measure-theoretic ones in the explicit consideration of various hedges. In measure-theoretic proofs existence of moments are assumed, whereas in our game-theoretic proofs we assume availability of various hedges to Skeptic for finite prices.
This paper gives game-theoretic versions of several results on "merging of opinions" obtained in measure-theoretic probability and algorithmic randomness theory. An advantage of the game-theoretic versions over the measure-theoretic results is that they are pointwise, their advantage over the algorithmic randomness results is that they are non-asymptotic, but the most important advantage over both is that they are very constructive, giving explicit and efficient strategies for players in a game of prediction.
Minimax Duality in Game-Theoretic Probability
本文提出了一种新的博弈论概率框架，并证明了一个有限时间内的极小极大定理，该定理可推导出广泛的游戏论结果。
This note makes the obvious observation that Hoeffding's original proof of his inequality remains valid in the game-theoretic framework. All details are spelled out for the convenience of future reference.
We give a game-theoretic proof of the celebrated Erdos-Feller-Kolmogorov-Petrowsky law of the iterated logarithm for fair coin tossing. Our proof, based on Bayesian strategy, is explicit as many other game-theoretic proofs of the laws in probability theory.
We prove both the validity and the sharpness of the law of the iterated logarithm in game-theoretic probability with quadratic and stronger hedges.
We prove an Erdos-Feller-Kolmogorov-Petrowsky law of the iterated logarithm for self-normalized martingales. Our proof is given in the framework of the game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk. As many other game-theoretic proofs, our proof is self-contained and explicit.
In Gambler's Ruin when both players start with the same amount of money, we show the playing time stochastically increases when the games are made more fair. We give two different arguments for this fact that extend results from \cite{Pek2021}. We then use this to show that the exit time from a symmetric interval for Brownian motion with drift stochastically increases as the drift moves closer to zero; this result is not easily obtainable from available explicit formulas for the density.
We prove a game-theoretic version of Levy's zero-one law, and deduce several corollaries from it, including non-stochastic versions of Kolmogorov's zero-one law, the ergodicity of Bernoulli shifts, and a zero-one law for dependent trials. Our secondary goal is to explore the basic definitions of game-theoretic probability theory, with Levy's zero-one law serving a useful role.
Formalization of Brownian motion in Lean
本文在Lean中形式化了布朗运动，基于测度论基础，开发了扩展定理、高斯测度和路径连续性定理。
In this paper we study the controllability results of impulsive neutral stochastic functional differential equations with infinite delay driven by fractional Brownian motion in a real separable Hilbert space. The controllability results are obtained using stochastic analysis and a fixed-point strategy. Finally, an illustrative example is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the theoretical result.
In this note, we present the closed form solution for the joint distribution of the range and terminal value of a Brownian motion. Based on this distribution we build a range scaled terminal value distribution and show the derivation steps of its density, further s-density. Finally, we sample the s-density from different groups of currency pairs and compare them with theoretical result.
On Approximate Representation of Fractional Brownian Motion
本文提出了一种基于Legendre多项式对分数布朗运动进行正交展开的方法，并分析了其均方误差关系及与已有结果的对比。
In this paper we study the controllability of fractional neutral stochastic functional differential equations with infinite delay driven by fractional Brownian motion in a real separable Hilbert space. The controllability results are obtained by using stochastic analysis and a fixed-point strategy. Finally, an illustrative example is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the theoretical result.
We establish an almost sure scaling limit theorem for super-Brownian motion on $\mathbb{R}^d$ associated with the semi-linear equation $u_t = {1/2}Δu +βu-αu^2$, where $α$ and $β$ are positive constants. In this case, the spectral theoretical assumptions that required in Chen et al (2008) are not satisfied. An example is given to show that the main results also hold for some sub-domains in $\mathbb{R}^d$.
We consider discrete-time uncertain processes with finite state space and study the properties of game-theoretic upper expectations developed by Shafer and Vovk. We start by proving some basic properties, e.g. monotonicity, law of iterated upper expectations,... Afterwards, we show that this operator satisfies several, more involved continuity properties, including continuity with respect to non-decreasing sequences and continuity with respect to specific sequences of so-called `finitary measurable' functions, which are functions that depend on a finite number of states.
We explicitly compute the exit law of a certain hypoelliptic Brownian motion on a solvable Lie group. The underlying random variable can be seen as a multidimensional exponential functional of Brownian motion. As a consequence, we obtain hidden identities in law between gamma random variables as the probabilistic manifestation of braid relations. The classical beta-gamma algebra identity corresponds to the only braid move in a root system of type $A_2$. The other ones seem new. A key ingredient is a conditional representation theorem. It relates our hypoelliptic Brownian motion conditioned on …
This paper makes a small step towards a non-stochastic version of superhedging duality relations in the case of one traded security with a continuous price path. Namely, we prove the coincidence of game-theoretic and measure-theoretic expectation for lower semicontinuous positive functionals. We consider a new broad definition of game-theoretic probability, leaving the older narrower definitions for future work.
The game-theoretic version of Kolmogorov's strong law of large numbers says that Skeptic has a strategy forcing the statement of the law in a game of prediction involving Reality, Forecaster, and Skeptic. This note describes a simple matching strategy for Reality.
Following our previous work on `perpendicular' boundary conditions, we show that transmission conditions \[ f'(0-)=α(f(0+)-f(0-)), \quad f'(0+)=β(f(0+)-f(0-)),\] describing so-called snapping out Brownian motions on the real line, are in a sense complementary to the transmission conditions \[f(0-)=-f(0+), \quad f''(0+) =αf'(0-)+βf'(0+). \] As an application of the analysis leading to this result, we also provide a deeper semigroup-theoretic insight into the theorem saying that as the coefficients $α$ and $β$ tend to infinity but their ratio remains constant, the snapping-out Brownian motions c…
Hamza-Klebaner posed the problem of constructing martingales with Brownian marginals that differ from Brownian motion, so called fake Brownian motions. Besides its theoretical appeal, the problem represents the quintessential version of the ubiquitous fitting problem in mathematical finance where the task is to construct martingales that satisfy marginal constraints imposed by market data. Non-continuous solutions to this challenge were given by Madan-Yor, Hamza-Klebaner, Hobson, and Fan-Hamza-Klebaner whereas continuous (but non-Markovian) fake Brownian motions were constructed by Oleszkiewic…
In this paper, we establish the theory of chaos propagation and propose an Euler-Maruyama scheme for McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations driven by fractional Brownian motion with Hurst exponent $H \in (0,1)$. Meanwhile, upper bounds for errors in the Euler method is obtained. A numerical example is demonstrated to verify the theoretical results.
In this expository paper we illustrate the generality of game theoretic probability protocols of Shafer and Vovk (2001) in finite-horizon discrete games. By restricting ourselves to finite-horizon discrete games, we can explicitly describe how discrete distributions with finite support and the discrete pricing formulas, such as the Cox-Ross-Rubinstein formula, are naturally derived from game-theoretic probability protocols. Corresponding to any discrete distribution with finite support, we construct a finite-horizon discrete game, a replicating strategy of Skeptic, and a neutral forecasting st…
A game-theoretic probability approach to loopholes in CHSH experiments
本文提出一种基于博弈论的概率方法，用于分析CHSH实验中的局部和测量依赖性漏洞，通过构建资本过程游戏证明自然无法同时满足两个条件，从而为科学家提供胜利策略并解释实验观测结果。
Fix a bounded domain Omega in R^d, a continuous function F on the boundary of Omega, and constants epsilon>0, p>1, and q>1 with p^{-1} + q^{-1} = 1. For each x in Omega, let u^epsilon(x) be the value for player I of the following two-player, zero-sum game. The initial game position is x. At each stage, a fair coin is tossed and the player who wins the toss chooses a vector v of length at most epsilon to add to the game position, after which a random ``noise vector'' with mean zero and variance (q/p)|v|^2 in each orthogonal direction is also added. The game ends when the game position reaches s…
A coding theoretic study of homogeneous Markovian predictive games
本文研究齐次马尔可夫预测博弈，利用通用编码方案构建投注策略证明博弈论大数定律，并将结果应用于西拉德热力学思维实验。
In (Istrate, Marathe, Ravi SODA 2001) we advocated the investigation of robustness of results in the theory of learning in games under adversarial scheduling models. We provide evidence that such an analysis is feasible and can lead to nontrivial results by investigating, in an adversarial scheduling setting, Peyton Young's model of diffusion of norms. In particular, our main result incorporates into Peyton Young's model.
The game theoretic p-Laplacian and semi-supervised learning with few labels
研究了图上半监督学习中的博弈论p-拉普拉斯方程，证明其在有限标签和无限未标签数据极限下的良好性，展示其连续极限为加权连续p-拉普拉斯方程，并证明图p-拉普拉斯方程的解在高概率下近似Hölder连续。
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