A popular Bayesian nonparametric approach to survival analysis consists in modeling hazard rates as kernel mixtures driven by a completely random measure. In this paper we derive asymptotic results for linear and quadratic functionals of such random hazard rates. In particular, we prove central limit theorems for the cumulative hazard function and for the path-second moment and path-variance of the hazard rate. Our techniques are based on recently established criteria for the weak convergence of single and double stochastic integrals with respect to Poisson random measures. We illustrate our results by considering specific models involving kernels and random measures commonly exploited in practice.
We consider the smoothed maximum likelihood estimator and the smoothed Grenander-type estimator for a monotone baseline hazard rate $λ_0$ in the Cox model. We analyze their asymptotic behavior and show that they are asymptotically normal at rate $n^{m/(2m+1)}$, when~$λ_0$ is $m\geq 2$ times continuously differentiable, and that both estimators are asymptotically equivalent. Finally, we present numerical results on pointwise confidence intervals that illustrate the comparable behavior of the two methods.
Two new test statistics are introduced to test the null hypotheses that the sampling distribution has an increasing hazard rate on a specified interval [0,a]. These statistics are empirical L_1-type distances between the isotonic estimates, which use the monotonicity constraint, and either the empirical distribution function or the empirical cumulative hazard. They measure the excursions of the empirical estimates with respect to the isotonic estimates, due to local non-monotonicity. Asymptotic normality of the test statistics, if the hazard is strictly increasing on [0,a], is established unde…
We consider a likelihood ratio method for testing whether a monotone baseline hazard function in the Cox model has a particular value at a fixed point. The characterization of the estimators involved is provided both in the nondecreasing and the nonincreasing setting. These characterizations facilitate the derivation of the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio test, which is identical in the nondecreasing and in the nonincreasing case. The asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio test enables, via inversion, the construction of pointwise confidence intervals. Simulations show…
We investigate nonparametric estimation of a monotone baseline hazard and a decreasing baseline density within the Cox model. Two estimators of a nondecreasing baseline hazard function are proposed. We derive the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator and consider a Grenander type estimator, defined as the left-hand slope of the greatest convex minorant of the Breslow estimator. We demonstrate that the two estimators are strong consistent and asymptotically equivalent and derive their common limit distribution at a fixed point. Both estimators of a nonincreasing baseline hazard and their a…
We consider two isotonic smooth estimators for a monotone baseline hazard in the Cox model, a maximum smooth likelihood estimator and a Grenander-type estimator based on the smoothed Breslow estimator for the cumulative baseline hazard. We show that they are both asymptotically normal at rate $n^{m/(2m+1)}$, where $m\geq 2$ denotes the level of smoothness considered, and we relate their limit behavior to kernel smoothed isotonic estimators studied in Lopuhaä and Musta (2016). It turns out that the Grenander-type estimator is asymptotically equivalent to the kernel smoothed isotonic estimators,…
Cox proportional hazards model with measurement error is investigated. In Kukush et al. (2011) [Journal of Statistical Research 45, 77-94] and Chimisov and Kukush (2014) [Modern Stochastics: Theory and Applications 1, 13-32] asymptotic properties of simultaneous estimator $λ_n(\cdot)$, $β_n$ were studied for baseline hazard rate $λ(\cdot)$ and regression parameter $β$, at that the parameter set $Θ=Θ_λ\times Θ_β$ was assumed bounded. In the present paper, the set $Θ_λ$ is unbounded from above and not separated away from $0$. We construct the estimator in two steps: first we derive a strongly co…
Many insurance premium principles are defined and various estimation procedures introduced in the literature. In this paper, we focus on the estimation of the excess-of-loss reinsurance premium when the risks are randomly right-censored. The asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator is established under suitable conditions and its performance evaluated through sets of simulated data.
Smooth backfitting has proven to have a number of theoretical and practical advantages in structured regression. Smooth backfitting projects the data down onto the structured space of interest providing a direct link between data and estimator. This paper introduces the ideas of smooth backfitting to survival analysis in a proportional hazard model, where we assume an underlying conditional hazard with multiplicative components. We develop asymptotic theory for the estimator and we use the smooth backfitter in a practical application, where we extend recent advances of in-sample forecasting me…
We introduce a new test statistic for testing the null hypothesis that the sampling distribution has an increasing hazard rate on a specified interval [0,a]. It is based on a comparison of the empirical distribution function with an isotonic estimate, using the restriction that the hazard is increasing, and measures the excursions of the empirical distribution above the isotonic estimate, due to local non-monotonicity. It is proved in the companion paper Groeneboom and Jongbloed (2011a) that the test statistic is asymptotically normal if the hazard is strictly increasing on the interval [0,a] …
The construction of the simultaneous confidence bands for the integrated hazard function is considered. The Nelson--Aalen estimator is used. The simultaneous confidence bands based on bootstrap methods are presented. Two methods of construction of such confidence bands are proposed. The weird bootstrap method is used for resampling. Simulations are made to compare the actual coverage probability of the bootstrap and the asymptotic simultaneous confidence bands. It is shown that the equal--tailed bootstrap confidence band has the coverage probability closest to the nominal one. We also present …
This paper proposes a decorrelation-based approach to test hypotheses and construct confidence intervals for the low dimensional component of high dimensional proportional hazards models. Motivated by the geometric projection principle, we propose new decorrelated score, Wald and partial likelihood ratio statistics. Without assuming model selection consistency, we prove the asymptotic normality of these test statistics, establish their semiparametric optimality. We also develop new procedures for constructing pointwise confidence intervals for the baseline hazard function and baseline survival…
In this paper, we study the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of a convex hazard function. We show that the MLE is consistent and converges at a local rate of $n^{2/5}$ at points $x_0$ where the true hazard function is positive and strictly convex. Moreover, we establish the pointwise asymptotic distribution theory of our estimator under these same assumptions. One notable feature of the nonparametric MLE studied here is that no arbitrary choice of tuning parameter (or complicated data-adaptive selection of the tuning parameter) is required.
Thomas' partial likelihood estimator of regression parameters is widely used in the analysis of nested case-control data with Cox's model. This paper proposes a new estimator of the regression parameters, which is consistent and asymptotically normal. Its asymptotic variance is smaller than that of Thomas' estimator away from the null. Unlike some other existing estimators, the proposed estimator does not rely on any more data than strictly necessary for Thomas' estimator and is easily computable from a closed form estimating equation with a unique solution. The variance estimation is obtained…
The proportional hazards assumption in the commonly used Cox model for censored failure time data is often violated in scientific studies. Yang and Prentice (2005) proposed a novel semiparametric two-sample model that includes the proportional hazards model and the proportional odds model as sub-models, and accommodates crossing survival curves. The model leaves the baseline hazard unspecified and the two model parameters can be interpreted as the short-term and long-term hazard ratios. Inference procedures were developed based on a pseudo score approach. Although extension to accommodate cova…
In this paper we study the asymptotic theory for quadratic variation of a harmonizable fractional $\al$-stable process. We show a law of large numbers with a non-ergodic limit and obtain weak convergence towards a Lévy-driven Rosenblatt random variable when the Hurst parameter satisfies $H\in (1/2,1)$ and $\al(1-H)<1/2$. This result complements the asymptotic theory for fractional stable processes investigated in e.g. \cite{BHP19,BLP17,BP17,BPT20,LP18,MOP20}.
In reliability and life testing studies, the topic of estimating hazard rate has received great attention in recent years since an estimate of hazard rate is a quite useful tool for making decisions. Some works have included nonparametric approaches while some have considered parametric structural models for complete as well as censored data sets; see Meeker et al. (1992), Antoniadis and Grégoire (1999), Rai and Singh (2003), Bezandry et al. (2005), Brunel and Comte (2008), and Mahapatra et al. (2012). Depending on the shapes of the hazard rate, efficiencies differ markedly across proposed est…
Statistical estimation and inference for marginal hazard models with varying coefficients for multivariate failure time data are important subjects in survival analysis. A local pseudo-partial likelihood procedure is proposed for estimating the unknown coefficient functions. A weighted average estimator is also proposed in an attempt to improve the efficiency of the estimator. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators are established and standard error formulas for the estimated coefficients are derived and empirically tested. To reduce the computational burden of the…
Cox's proportional hazards model is one of the most popular statistical models to evaluate associations of exposure with a censored failure time outcome. When confounding factors are not fully observed, the exposure hazard ratio estimated using a Cox model is subject to unmeasured confounding bias. To address this, we propose a novel approach for the identification and estimation of the causal hazard ratio in the presence of unmeasured confounding factors. Our approach is based on a binary instrumental variable, and an additional no-interaction assumption in a first stage regression of the tre…
In this paper we consider multivariate Hawkes processes with baseline hazard and kernel functions that depend on time. This defines a class of locally stationary processes. We discuss estimation of the time-dependent baseline hazard and kernel functions based on a localized criterion. Theory on stationary Hawkes processes is extended to develop asymptotic theory for the estimator in the locally stationary model.
The use of massive survival data has become common in survival analysis. In this study, a subsampling algorithm is proposed for the Cox proportional hazards model with time-dependent covariates when the sample is extraordinarily large but computing resources are relatively limited. A subsample estimator is developed by maximizing the weighted partial likelihood; it is shown to have consistency and asymptotic normality. By minimizing the asymptotic mean squared error of the subsample estimator, the optimal subsampling probabilities are formulated with explicit expressions. Simulation studies sh…
We study local asymptotic properties of likelihood ratios of certain Heston models. We distinguish three cases: subcritical, critical and supercritical models. For the drift parameters, local asymptotic normality is proved in the subcritical case, only local asymptotic quadraticity is shown in the critical case, while in the supercritical case not even local asymptotic quadraticity holds. For certain submodels, local asymptotic normality is proved in the critical case, and local asymptotic mixed normality is shown in the supercritical case. As a consequence, asymptotically optimal (randomized)…
Nonlinear panel data models with fixed individual effects provide an important set of tools for describing microeconometric data. In a large class of such models (including probit, proportional hazard and quantile regression to name just a few) it is impossible to difference out individual effects, and inference is usually justified in a `large n large T' asymptotic framework. However, there is a considerable gap in the type of assumptions that are currently imposed in models with smooth score functions (such as probit, and proportional hazard) and quantile regression. In the present paper we …
The semi-parametric Cox proportional hazards regression model has been widely used for many years in several applied sciences. However, a fully parametric proportional hazards model, if appropriately assumed, can often lead to more efficient inference. To tackle the extreme non-robustness of the traditional maximum likelihood estimator in the presence of outliers in the data under such fully parametric proportional hazard models, a robust estimation procedure has recently been proposed extending the concept of the minimum density power divergence estimator (MDPDE) under this set-up. In this pa…
To better understand the interplay of censoring and sparsity we develop finite sample properties of nonparametric Cox proportional hazard's model. Due to high impact of sequencing data, carrying genetic information of each individual, we work with over-parametrized problem and propose general class of group penalties suitable for sparse structured variable selection and estimation. Novel non-asymptotic sandwich bounds for the partial likelihood are developed. We establish how they extend notion of local asymptotic normality (LAN) of Le Cam's. Such non-asymptotic LAN principles are further exte…
For statistical inference on regression models with a diverging number of covariates, the existing literature typically makes sparsity assumptions on the inverse of the Fisher information matrix. Such assumptions, however, are often violated under Cox proportion hazards models, leading to biased estimates with under-coverage confidence intervals. We propose a modified debiased lasso approach, which solves a series of quadratic programming problems to approximate the inverse information matrix without posing sparse matrix assumptions. We establish asymptotic results for the estimated regression…
The article is devoted to the nonparametric estimation of the quadratic covariation of non-synchronously observed Itô processes in an additive microstructure noise model. In a high-frequency setting, we aim at establishing an asymptotic distribution theory for a generalized multiscale estimator including a feasible central limit theorem with optimal convergence rate on convenient regularity assumptions. The inevitably remaining impact of asynchronous deterministic sampling schemes and noise corruption on the asymptotic distribution is precisely elucidated. A case study for various important ex…
This work studies the statistical properties of the maximum penalized likelihood approach in a semi-parametric framework. We recall the penalized likelihood approach for estimating a function and review some asymptotic results. We investigate the properties of two estimators of the variance of maximum penalized likelihood estimators: sandwich estimator and a Bayesian estimator. The coverage rates of confidence intervals based on these estimators are studied through a simulation study of survival data. In a first simulation the coverage rates for the survival function and the hazard function ar…
We prove conditional asymptotic normality of a class of quadratic U-statistics that are dominated by their degenerate second order part and have kernels that change with the number of observations. These statistics arise in the construction of estimators in high-dimensional semi- and non-parametric models, and in the construction of nonparametric confidence sets. This is illustrated by estimation of the integral of a square of a density or regression function, and estimation of the mean response with missing data. We show that estimators are asymptotically normal even in the case that the rate…
The paper deals with asymptotic properties of the adaptive procedure proposed in the author paper (2007) for estimation of unknown nonparametric regression. We prove that this procedure is asymptotically efficient for a quadratic risk. It means that the asymptotic quadratic risk for this procedure coincides with a sharp lower bound.
A class of estimating functions is introduced for the regression parameter of the Cox proportional hazards model to allow unknown failure statuses on some study subjects. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the resulting estimators are established under mild conditions. An adaptive estimator which achieves the minimum variance-covariance bound of the class is constructed. Numerical studies demonstrate that the asymptotic approximations are adequate for practical use and that the efficiency gain of the adaptive estimator over the complete-case analysis can be quite substantial. Similar …
We consider the Cox regression model and study the asymptotic global behavior of the Grenander-type estimator for a monotone baseline hazard function. This model is not included in the general setting of Durot (2007). However, we show that a similar central limit theorem holds for $L_p$-error of the Grenander-type estimator. We also propose a test procedure for a Weibull baseline distribution, based on the $L_p$-distance between the Grenander estimator and a parametric estimator of the baseline hazard. Simulation studies are performed to investigate the performance of this test.
Department of Statistics, Harvard University（哈佛大学统计系）
Recent progress in reinforcement learning has led to remarkable performance in a range of applications, but its deployment in high-stakes settings remains quite rare. One reason is a limited understanding of the behavior of reinforcement algorithms, both in terms of their regret and their ability to learn the underlying system dynamics---existing work is focused almost exclusively on characterizing rates, with little attention paid to the constants multiplying those rates that can be critically important in practice. To start to address this challenge, we study perhaps the simplest non-bandit …
To accurately quantify landslide hazard in a region of Turkey, we develop new marked point process models within a Bayesian hierarchical framework for the joint prediction of landslide counts and sizes. To accommodate for the dominant role of the few largest landslides in aggregated sizes, we leverage mark distributions with strong justification from extreme-value theory, thus bridging the two broad areas of statistics of extremes and marked point patterns. At the data level, we assume a Poisson distribution for landslide counts, while we compare different "sub-asymptotic" distributions for la…
We study stochastic properties of the empty space for stationary germ-grain models in $\R^d$, in particular we deal with the inner radius of the empty space with respect to a general structuring element which is allowed to be lower-dimensional. We consider Poisson cluster germ-grain models and Boolean models with grains that are clusters of convex bodies and show that more variable size of clusters results in stochastically greater empty space in terms of the empty space hazard function. We also study impact of clusters being more spread in the space on the value of the empty space hazard. Fur…
Survivorship analysis allows to statistically analyze situations that can be modeled as waiting times to an event. These waiting times are characterized by the cumulative hazard rate, which can be estimated by the Nelson-Aalen estimator or diverse confidence estimators based on asymptotic statistics. To better understand the small sample properties of these estimators, the speed of convergence of the estimate to the exact value is examined. This is done by deriving large deviation principles and their rate functions for the estimators and examining their properties. It is shown that these rate…
We consider a contracting problem in which a principal hires an agent to manage a risky project. When the agent chooses volatility components of the output process and the principal observes the output continuously, the principal can compute the quadratic variation of the output, but not the individual components. This leads to moral hazard with respect to the risk choices of the agent. We identify a family of admissible contracts for which the optimal agent's action is explicitly characterized, and, using the recent theory of singular changes of measures for Itô processes, we study how restri…
We use the properties of the Matuszewska indices to show asymptotic inequalities for hazard rates. We discuss the relation between membership in the classes of dominatedly or extended rapidly varying tail distributions and corresponding hazard rate conditions. Convolution closure is established for the class of distributions with extended rapidly varying tails.
We derive an asymptotic expansion for the quadratic variation of a stochastic process satisfying a stochastic differential equation driven by a fractional Brownian motion, based on the theory of asymptotic expansion of Skorohod integrals converging to a mixed normal limit. In order to apply the general theory, it is necessary to estimate functionals that are a randomly weighted sum of products of multiple integrals of the fractional Brownian motion, in expanding the quadratic variation and identifying the limit random symbols. To overcome the difficulty, we introduce two types of exponents by …
We provide a general framework to study stochastic sequences related to individual learning in economics, learning automata in computer sciences, social learning in marketing, and other applications. More precisely, we study the asymptotic properties of a class of stochastic sequences that take values in $[0,1]$ and satisfy a property called "bounded expected relative hazard rates." Sequences that satisfy this property and feature "small step-size" or "shrinking step-size" converge to 1 with high probability or almost surely, respectively. These convergence results yield conditions for the lea…
In [8], asymptotic expansion of the martingale with mixed normal limit was provided. The expansion formula is expressed by the adjoint of a random symbol with coefficients described by the Malliavin calculus, differently from the standard invariance principle. As an application, an asymptotic expansion for a quadratic form of a diffusion process was derived in the same paper. This article gives some details of the derivation, after a short review of the martingale expansion in mixed normal limit.
We derive the asymptotic behavior of weighted quadratic variations of fractional Brownian motion $B$ with Hurst index $H=1/4$. This completes the only missing case in a very recent work by I. Nourdin, D. Nualart and C. A. Tudor. Moreover, as an application, we solve a recent conjecture of K. Burdzy and J. Swanson on the asymptotic behavior of the Riemann sums with alternating signs associated to $B$.
Cohen, Guyon, Perrin and Pontier have given assumptions under which the second-order quadratic variations of a Gaussian process converge almost surely to a deterministic limit. In this paper we present two new convergence results about these variations: the first is a deterministic asymptotic expansion; the second is a central limit theorem. Next we apply these results to identify two-parameter fractional Brownian motion and anisotropic fractional Brownian motion.
The present article is devoted to a fine study of the convergence of renormalized weighted quadratic and cubic variations of a fractional Brownian motion $B$ with Hurst index $H$. In the quadratic (resp. cubic) case, when $H<1/4$ (resp. $H<1/6$), we show by means of Malliavin calculus that the convergence holds in $L^2$ toward an explicit limit which only depends on $B$. This result is somewhat surprising when compared with the celebrated Breuer and Major theorem.
Many statistical applications require establishing central limit theorems for sums, integrals, or for quadratic forms of functions of a stationary process. A particularly important case is that of Appell polynomials, since the Appell expansion rank" determines typically the type of central limit theorem satisfied by these functionals. We review and extend here to multidimensional indices a functional analysis approach to this problem proposed by Avram and Brown (1989), based on the method of cumulants and on integrability assumptions in the spectral domain; several applications are presented a…
Hermite processes are self--similar processes with stationary increments which appear as limits of normalized sums of random variables with long range dependence. The Hermite process of order $1$ is fractional Brownian motion and the Hermite process of order $2$ is the Rosenblatt process. We consider here the sum of two Hermite processes of order $q\geq 1$ and $q+1$ and of different Hurst parameters. We then study its quadratic variations at different scales. This is akin to a wavelet decomposition. We study both the cases where the Hermite processes are dependent and where they are independen…
