Many insurance premium principles are defined and various estimation procedures introduced in the literature. In this paper, we focus on the estimation of the excess-of-loss reinsurance premium when the risks are randomly right-censored. The asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator is established under suitable conditions and its performance evaluated through sets of simulated data.
This paper focuses on the problem of the estimation of the cumulative hazard function of a distribution on a general complete separable metric space when the data points are subject to censoring by an arbitrary adapted random set. A problem involving observability of the estimator proposed in [8] and [9] is resolved and a functional central limit theorem is proven for the revised estimator. Several examples and applications are discussed, and the validity of bootstrap methods is established in each case.
This paper considers the three-parameter exponentiated Weibull family under type II censoring. It first graphically illustrates the shape property of the hazard function. Then, it proposes a simple algorithm for computing the maximum likelihood estimator and derives the Fisher information matrix. The latter one is represented through a single integral in terms of hazard function, hence it solves the problem of computation difficulty in constructing inference for the maximum likelihood estimator. Real data analysis is conducted to illustrate the effect of censoring rate on the maximum likelihoo…
Average Cause-Specific Hazard: A Censoring-Invariant Measure of Event Burden Under Competing Risks
Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health（哈佛陈曾熙公共卫生学院）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；Dana Farber Cancer Institute（达纳法伯癌症研究院）；Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center（纪念斯隆-凯特琳癌症中心）
To better understand the interplay of censoring and sparsity we develop finite sample properties of nonparametric Cox proportional hazard's model. Due to high impact of sequencing data, carrying genetic information of each individual, we work with over-parametrized problem and propose general class of group penalties suitable for sparse structured variable selection and estimation. Novel non-asymptotic sandwich bounds for the partial likelihood are developed. We establish how they extend notion of local asymptotic normality (LAN) of Le Cam's. Such non-asymptotic LAN principles are further exte…
We consider kernel smoothed Grenander-type estimators for a monotone hazard rate and a monotone density in the presence of randomly right censored data. We show that they converge at rate $n^{2/5}$ and that the limit distribution at a fixed point is Gaussian with explicitly given mean and variance. It is well-known that standard kernel smoothing leads to inconsistency problems at the boundary points. It turns out that, also by using a boundary correction, we can only establish uniform consistency on intervals that stay away from the end point of the support (though we can go arbitrarily close …
In many public health problems, an important goal is to identify the effect of some treatment/intervention on the risk of failure for the whole population. A marginal proportional hazards regression model is often used to analyze such an effect. When dependent censoring is explained by many auxiliary covariates, we utilize two working models to condense high-dimensional covariates to achieve dimension reduction. Then the estimator of the treatment effect is obtained by maximizing a pseudo-likelihood function over a sieve space. Such an estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically nor…
We propose a deep generative approach to nonparametric estimation of conditional survival and hazard functions with right-censored data. The key idea of the proposed method is to first learn a conditional generator for the joint conditional distribution of the observed time and censoring indicator given the covariates, and then construct the Kaplan-Meier and Nelson-Aalen estimators based on this conditional generator for the conditional hazard and survival functions. Our method combines ideas from the recently developed deep generative learning and classical nonparametric estimation in surviva…
The use of massive survival data has become common in survival analysis. In this study, a subsampling algorithm is proposed for the Cox proportional hazards model with time-dependent covariates when the sample is extraordinarily large but computing resources are relatively limited. A subsample estimator is developed by maximizing the weighted partial likelihood; it is shown to have consistency and asymptotic normality. By minimizing the asymptotic mean squared error of the subsample estimator, the optimal subsampling probabilities are formulated with explicit expressions. Simulation studies sh…
This research is motivated by discovering and underpinning genetic causes for the progression of a bilateral eye disease, Age-related Macular Degeneration (AMD), of which the primary outcomes, progression times to late-AMD, are bivariate and interval-censored due to intermittent assessment times. We propose a novel class of copula-based semiparametric transformation models for bivariate data under general interval censoring, which includes the case 1 interval censoring (current status data) and case 2 interval censoring. Specifically, the joint likelihood is modeled through a two-parameter Arc…
In this work, nonparametric log-rank-type statistical tests are introduced in order to verify homogeneity of purely discrete variables subject to arbitrary right-censoring for infinitely many categories. In particular, the Cramér-von Mises test statistics for discrete models under censoring is established. In order to introduce the test, we develop the weighted log-rank statistics in a general multivariate discrete setup which complements previous fundamental results of Gill (1980) and Andersen et al. (1982). Due to the presence of persistent jumps over the unbounded set of categories, the asy…
Partially observed cured data occur in the analysis of spontaneous abortion (SAB) in observational studies in pregnancy. In contrast to the traditional cured data, such data has an observable `cured' portion as women who do not abort spontaneously. The data is also subject to left truncate in addition to right-censoring because women may enter or withdraw from a study any time during their pregnancy. Left truncation in particular causes unique bias in the presence of a cured portion. In this paper, we study a cure rate model and develop a conditional nonparametric maximum likelihood approach. …
We present a general principle for estimating a regression function nonparametrically, allowing for a wide variety of data filtering, for example, repeated left truncation and right censoring. Both the mean and the median regression cases are considered. The method works by first estimating the conditional hazard function or conditional survivor function and then integrating. We also investigate improved methods that take account of model structure such as independent errors and show that such methods can improve performance when the model structure is true. We establish the pointwise asymptot…
Most studies for negatively associated (NA) random variables consider the complete-data situation, which is actually a relatively ideal condition in practice. The paper relaxes this condition to the incomplete-data setting and considers kernel smoothing density and hazard function estimation in the presence of right censoring based on the Kaplan-Meier estimator. We establish the strong asymptotic properties for these two estimators to assess their asymptotic behavior and justify their practical use.
We present a new estimator of the restricted mean survival time in randomized trials where there is right censoring that may depend on treatment and baseline variables. The proposed estimator leverages prognostic baseline variables to obtain equal or better asymptotic precision compared to traditional estimators. Under regularity conditions and random censoring within strata of treatment and baseline variables, the proposed estimator has the following features: (i) it is interpretable under violations of the proportional hazards assumption; (ii) it is consistent and at least as precise as the …
Multistate models can be used to describe transitions over time across states. In the presence of interval-censored times for transitions, the likelihood is constructed using transition probabilities. Models are specified using proportional hazards model for the transitions. Time-dependency is usually defined by parametric models, which can be too restrictive. Nonparametric hazards specification with splines allow for flexible modelling of time-dependency without making strong model assumptions. Penalised maximum likelihood is used to estimate the models. Selecting the optimal amount of smooth…
We consider a model where the failure hazard function, conditional on a covariate $Z$ is given by $R(t,θ^0|Z)=η\_{γ^0}(t)f\_{β^0}(Z)$, with $θ^0=(β^0,γ^0)^\top\in \mathbb{R}^{m+p}$. The baseline hazard function $η\_{γ^0}$ and relative risk $f\_{β^0}$ belong both to parametric families. The covariate $Z$ is measured through the error model $U=Z+ε$ where $ε$ is independent from $Z$, with known density $f\_ε$. We observe a $n$-sample $(X\_i, D\_i, U\_i)$, $i=1,...,n$, where $X\_i$ is the minimum between the failure time and the censoring time, and $D\_i$ is the censoring indicator. We aim at esti…
We discuss the role of misspecification and censoring on Bayesian model selection in the contexts of right-censored survival and concave log-likelihood regression. Misspecification includes wrongly assuming the censoring mechanism to be non-informative. Emphasis is placed on additive accelerated failure time, Cox proportional hazards and probit models. We offer a theoretical treatment that includes local and non-local priors, and a general non-linear effect decomposition to improve power-sparsity trade-offs. We discuss a fundamental question: what solution can one hope to obtain when (inevitab…
Statistical methods are developed for analysis of clinical and virus genetics data from phase 3 randomized, placebo-controlled trials of vaccines against novel coronavirus COVID-19. Vaccine efficacy (VE) of a vaccine to prevent COVID-19 caused by one of finitely many genetic strains of SARS-CoV-2 may vary by strain. The problem of assessing differential VE by viral genetics can be formulated under a competing risks model where the endpoint is virologically confirmed COVID-19 and the cause-of-failure is the infecting SARS-CoV-2 genotype. Strain-specific VE is defined as one minus the cause-spec…
Cox proportional hazard regression model is a popular tool to analyze the relationship between a censored lifetime variable with other relevant factors. The semi-parametric Cox model is widely used to study different types of data arising from applied disciplines like medical science, biology, reliability studies and many more. A fully parametric version of the Cox regression model, if properly specified, can yield more efficient parameter estimates leading to better insight generation. However, the existing maximum likelihood approach of generating inference under the fully parametric Cox reg…
High throughput genetic sequencing arrays with thousands of measurements per sample and a great amount of related censored clinical data have increased demanding need for better measurement specific model selection. In this paper we establish strong oracle properties of nonconcave penalized methods for nonpolynomial (NP) dimensional data with censoring in the framework of Cox's proportional hazards model. A class of folded-concave penalties are employed and both LASSO and SCAD are discussed specifically. We unveil the question under which dimensionality and correlation restrictions can an orac…
