We consider the problem of optimal stopping for a one-dimensional diffusion process. Two classes of admissible stopping times are considered. The first class consists of all nonanticipating stopping times that take values in [0,\infty], while the second class further restricts the set of allowed values to the discrete grid {nh:n=0,1,2,...,\infty} for some parameter h>0. The value functions for the two problems are denoted by V(x) and V^h(x), respectively. We identify the rate of convergence of V^h(x) to V(x) and the rate of convergence of the stopping regions, and provide simple formulas for the rate coefficients.
Under the hypothesis of convergence in probability of a sequence of càdlàg processes $(X^n)\_n$ to a càdlàg process $X$, we are interested in the convergence of corresponding values in optimal stopping and also in the convergence of optimal stopping times. We give results under hypothesis of inclusion of filtrations or convergence of filtrations.
Under the hypothesis of convergence in probability of a sequence of càdlàg processes $(X^n)_n$ to a càdlàg process $X$, we are interested in the convergence of corresponding values in optimal stopping. We give results under hypothesis of inclusion of filtrations or convergence of filtrations.
We prove that every two-player nonzero-sum stopping game in discrete time admits an ε-equilibrium in randomized strategies for every ε>0. We use a stochastic variation of Ramsey's theorem, which enables us to reduce the problem to that of studying properties of ε-equilibria in a simple class of stochastic games with finite state space.
Convergence is proved for solutions of Dirichlet problems in regions with many small excluded sets (holes), as the holes become smaller and more numerous. The problem is formulated in the context of Markov processes associated with general Dirichlet forms, for random and nonrandom excluded sets. Sufficient conditions are given under which the sequence of entrance times or hitting times of the excluded sets converges in the stable topology. Convergence in the stable topology is a strengthened form of convergence in distribution, introduced by Renyi. Stable convergence of the entrance times impl…
We prove existence and uniqueness of physical and minimal solutions to McKean-Vlasov equations with positive feedback through elastic stopping times. We do this by establishing a relationship between this problem and a problem with absorbing stopping times. We show convergence of a particle system to the McKean-Vlasov equation. Moreover, we establish convergence of the elastic McKean-Vlasov problem to the problem with absorbing stopping times and to a reflecting Brownian motion as the elastic parameter goes to infinity or zero respectively.
This paper deals with the optimal stopping problem under partial observation for piecewise-deterministic Markov processes. We first obtain a recursive formulation of the optimal filter process and derive the dynamic programming equation of the partially observed optimal stopping problem. Then, we propose a numerical method, based on the quantization of the discrete-time filter process and the inter-jump times, to approximate the value function and to compute an actual $ε$-optimal stopping time. We prove the convergence of the algorithms and bound the rates of convergence.
In this paper, we present a discrete-type approximation scheme to solve continuous-time optimal stopping problems based on fully non-Markovian continuous processes adapted to the Brownian motion filtration. The approximations satisfy suitable variational inequalities which allow us to construct $ε$-optimal stopping times and optimal values in full generality. Explicit rates of convergence are presented for optimal values based on reward functionals of path-dependent SDEs driven by fractional Brownian motion. In particular, the methodology allows us to design concrete Monte-Carlo schemes for no…
In this paper we consider stopping problems with partial observation under a general risk-sensitive optimization criterion for problems with finite and infinite time horizon. Our aim is to maximize the certainty equivalent of the stopping reward. We develop a general theory and discuss the Bayesian risk-sensitive house selling problem as a special example. In particular we are able to study the influence of the attitude towards risk of the decision maker on the optimal stopping rule.
In this paper, we study the optimal multiple stopping problem under Knightian uncertainty both under discrete-time case and continuous-time case. The Knightian uncertainty is modeled by a single real-valued function g, which is the generator of a kind of backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs). We show that the value function of the multiple stopping problem coincides with the one corresponding to a new reward sequence or process. For the discrete-time case, this problem can be solved by an induction method which is a straightforward generalization of the single stopping theory. For…
This article treats both discrete time and continuous time stopping problems for general Markov processes on the real line with general linear costs. Using an auxiliary function of maximum representation type, conditions are given to guarantee the optimal stopping time to be of threshold type. The optimal threshold is then characterized as the root of that function. For random walks our results condense in the fact that all combinations of concave increasing pay-off functions and convex cost functions lead to a one-sided solution. For Lévy processes an explicit way to obtain the auxiliary func…
We extend the Longstaff-Schwartz algorithm for approximately solving optimal stopping problems on high-dimensional state spaces. We reformulate the optimal stopping problem for Markov processes in discrete time as a generalized statistical learning problem. Within this setup we apply deviation inequalities for suprema of empirical processes to derive consistency criteria, and to estimate the convergence rate and sample complexity. Our results strengthen and extend earlier results.
We first study an optimal stopping problem in which a player (an agent) uses a discrete stopping time in order to stop optimally a payoff process whose risk is evaluated by a (non-linear) $g$-expectation. We then consider a non-zero-sum game on discrete stopping times with two agents who aim at minimizing their respective risks. The payoffs of the agents are assessed by g-expectations (with possibly different drivers for the different players). By using the results of the first part, combined with some ideas of S. Hamad{è}ne and J. Zhang, we construct a Nash equilibrium point of this game by a…
We develop an approach for solving one-sided optimal stopping problems in discrete time for general underlying Markov processes on the real line. The main idea is to transform the problem into an auxiliary problem for the ladder height variables. In case that the original problem has a one-sided solution and the auxiliary problem has a monotone structure, the corresponding myopic stopping time is optimal for the original problem as well. This elementary line of argument directly leads to a characterization of the optimal boundary in the original problem: The optimal threshold is given by the t…
In this paper we consider discrete and continuous time risk sensitive optimal stopping problem. Using suitable properties of the underlying Feller-Markov process we prove continuity of the optimal stopping value function and provide formula for the optimal stopping policy. Next, we show how to link continuous time framework with its discrete time analogue. By considering suitable approximations, we obtain uniform convergence of the corresponding value functions.
In this paper, we present a Longstaff-Schwartz-type algorithm for optimal stopping time problems based on the Brownian motion filtration. The algorithm is based on Leão, Ohashi and Russo and, in contrast to previous works, our methodology applies to optimal stopping problems for fully non-Markovian and non-semimartingale state processes such as functionals of path-dependent stochastic differential equations and fractional Brownian motions. Based on statistical learning theory techniques, we provide overall error estimates in terms of concrete approximation architecture spaces with finite Vapni…
In this paper we develop two numerical methods for optimal stopping in the framework of one dimensional diffusion. Both of the methods use the Skorohod embedding in order to construct recombining tree approximations for diffusions with general coefficients. This technique allows us to determine convergence rates and construct nearly optimal stopping times which are optimal at the same rate. Finally, we demonstrate the efficiency of our schemes on several models
We develop a theory of optimal stopping problems under G-expectation framework. We first define a new kind of random times, called G-stopping times, which is suitable for this problem. For the discrete time case with finite horizon, the value function is defined backwardly and we show that it is the smallest G-supermartingale dominating the payoff process and the optimal stopping time exists. Then we extend this result both to the infinite horizon and to the continuous time case. We also establish the relation between the value function and solution of reflected BSDE driven by G-Brownian motio…
In this paper, we study reflected backward stochastic difference equations (RBSDEs for short) with finitely many states in discrete time. The general existence and uniqueness result, as well as comparison theorems for the solutions, are established under mild assumptions. The connections between RBSDEs and optimal stopping problems are also given. Then we apply the obtained results to explore optimal stopping problems under $g$-expectation. Finally, we study the pricing of American contingent claims in our context.
In this paper we study simulation based optimization algorithms for solving discrete time optimal stopping problems. This type of algorithms became popular among practioneers working in the area of quantitative finance. Using large deviation theory for the increments of empirical processes, we derive optimal convergence rates and show that they can not be improved in general. The rates derived provide a guide to the choice of the number of simulated paths needed in optimization step, which is crucial for the good performance of any simulation based optimization algorithm. Finally, we present a…
This paper studies explicitly solvable multidimensional optimal stopping problems of sum- and product-type in discrete and continuous time using the monotone case approach. It gives a review on monotone case stopping using the Doob decomposition, resp. Doob-Meyer decomposition in continuous time, also in its multiplicative versions. The approach via these decompositions leads to explicit solutions for a variety of examples, including multidimensional versions of the house-selling and burglar's problem, the Poisson disorder problem, and an optimal investment problem.
We propose a method based on continuous time Markov chain approximation to compute the distribution of Parisian stopping times and price Parisian options under general one-dimensional Markov processes. We prove the convergence of the method under a general setting and obtain sharp estimate of the convergence rate for diffusion models. Our theoretical analysis reveals how to design the grid of the CTMC to achieve faster convergence. Numerical experiments are conducted to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of our method for both diffusion and jump models. To show the versality of our approa…
We provide general conditions ensuring that the value functions of some nonlinear stopping problems with finite horizon converge to the value functions of the corresponding problems with infinite horizon. Our result can be formulated as result on stability, with respect to time horizon, of nonlinear $f$-expectations. We also study the rate of convergence. Many examples are given to illustrate our results. They include the analysis of time asymptotics of the fair prices of American options in a multidimensional exponential Lévy model.
In this paper we consider a method of solving optimal stopping problems in discrete and continuous time based on their dual representation. A novel and generic simulation-based optimization algorithm not involving nested simulations is proposed and studied. The algorithm involves the optimization of a genuinely penalized dual objective functional over a class of adapted martingales. We prove the convergence of the proposed algorithm and demonstrate its efficiency for optimal stopping problems arising in option pricing.
A new class of multi-player competitive stochastic games in discrete-time with an affine specification of the redistribution of payoffs at exercise is proposed and examined. Our games cover as a very special case the classic two-person stochastic stopping games introduced by Dynkin (1969). We first extend to the case of a single-period deterministic affine game the results from Guo and Rutkowski (2012,2014) where a particular subclass of competitive stopping games was studied. We identify conditions under which optimal equilibria and value for a multi-player competitive game with affine redist…
In this paper, we consider multistopping problems for finite discrete time sequences $X_1,...,X_n$. $m$-stops are allowed and the aim is to maximize the expected value of the best of these $m$ stops. The random variables are neither assumed to be independent not to be identically distributed. The basic assumption is convergence of a related imbedded point process to a continuous time Poisson process in the plane, which serves as a limiting model for the stopping problem. The optimal $m$-stopping curves for this limiting model are determined by differential equations of first order. A general a…
In the literature on optimal stopping, the problem of maximizing the expected discounted reward over all stopping times has been explicitly solved for some special reward functions (including $(x^+)^ν$, $(e^x-K)^+$, $(K-e^{-x})^+$, $x\in\mathbb{R}$, $ν\in(0,\infty)$ and $K>0$) under general random walks in discrete time and Lévy processes in continuous time (subject to mild integrability conditions). All of such reward functions are continuous, increasing and logconcave while the corresponding optimal stopping times are of threshold type (i.e. the solutions are one-sided). In this paper, we sh…
We propose a numerical method to approximate the value function for the optimal stopping problem of a piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP). Our approach is based on quantization of the post jump location---inter-arrival time Markov chain naturally embedded in the PDMP, and path-adapted time discretization grids. It allows us to derive bounds for the convergence rate of the algorithm and to provide a computable $ε$-optimal stopping time. The paper is illustrated by a numerical example.
Let $X=(X_t)_{t\geq 0}$ be a known process and $T$ an unknown random time independent of $X$. Our goal is to derive the distribution of $T$ based on an iid sample of $X_T$. Belomestny and Schoenmakers (2015) propose a solution based the Mellin transform in case where $X$ is a Brownian motion. Applying their technique we construct a non-parametric estimator for the density of $T$ for a self-similar one-dimensional process $X$. We calculate the minimax convergence rate of our estimator in some examples with a particular focus on Bessel processes where we also show asymptotic normality.
An aperiodic and irreducible Markov chain on a finite state space converges to its stationary distribution. When convergence to equilibrium is measured by total variation distance, there exists an optimal coupling and a maximal coupling time. In this article, the maximal coupling time is compared to the hitting time of a specific state or set. Such sets, named halting sets, are studied in the case of symmetric birth-and-death chains and in some other examples. Some applications to the cutoff phenomenon are given. These results yield new methods to calculate cutoff times for some monotone birth…
American options are studied in a general discrete market in the presence of proportional transaction costs, modelled as bid-ask spreads. Pricing algorithms and constructions of hedging strategies, stopping times and martingale representations are presented for short (seller's) and long (buyer's) positions in an American option with an arbitrary payoff. This general approach extends the special cases considered in the literature concerned primarily with computing the prices of American puts under transaction costs by relaxing any restrictions on the form of the payoff, the magnitude of the tra…
A discrete-time Markov chain can be transformed into a new Markov chain by looking at its states along iterations of an almost surely finite stopping time. By the optional stopping theorem, any bounded harmonic function with respect to the transition function of the original chain is harmonic with respect to the transition function of the transformed chain. The reverse inclusion is in general not true. Our main result provides a sufficient condition on the stopping time which guarantees that the space of bounded harmonic functions for the transformed chain embeds in the space of bounded harmon…
We give a theory of sublinear expectations and martingales in discrete time. Without assuming the existence of a dominating probability measure, we derive the extensions of classical results on uniform integrability, optional stopping of martingales, and martingale convergence. We also give a theory of BSDEs in the context of sublinear expectations and a finite-state space, including general existence and comparison results.
On discrete-time arrival processes and related random motions
Politecnico di Torino（都灵理工大学）；Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Institut Jean Le Rond d’Alembert（索邦大学，法国国家科学研究中心，让·勒朗·达朗贝尔研究所）；University of Torino（都灵大学）；Universidad Nacional de Colombia（哥伦比亚国立大学）
A curious connection exists between the theory of optimal stopping for independent random variables, and branching processes. In particular, for the branching process $Z_n$ with offspring distribution $Y$, there exists a random variable $X$ such that the probability $P(Z_n=0)$ of extinction of the $n$th generation in the branching process equals the value obtained by optimally stopping the sequence $X_1,...,X_n$, where these variables are i.i.d distributed as $X$. Generalizations to the inhomogeneous and infinite horizon cases are also considered. This correspondence furnishes a simple `stoppi…
A random walk on a $N$-dimensional hypercube is a discrete time stochastic process whose state space is the set $\{-1,+1\}^{N}$, which has uniform probability of reaching any neighbour state, and probability zero of reaching a non-neighbour state, in one step. This random walk is often studied as a process associated with the Ehrenfest Urn Model. This paper aims to present results about the time that such random walk takes to self-intersect and to return to a set of states. We also present results about the time that the random walk on a hypercube takes to visit a given set and a random set of…
In this paper, we address the stochastic representation problem in discrete time under (non-linear) g-expectation. We establish existence and uniqueness of the solution, as well as a characterization of the solution. As an application, we investigate a new approach to the optimal stopping problem under g-expectation and the related pricing of American options under Knightian uncertainty. Our results are also applied to a (non-linear) Skorokhod-type obstacle problem.
This article studies deep neural network expression rates for optimal stopping problems of discrete-time Markov processes on high-dimensional state spaces. A general framework is established in which the value function and continuation value of an optimal stopping problem can be approximated with error at most $\varepsilon$ by a deep ReLU neural network of size at most $κd^{\mathfrak{q}} \varepsilon^{-\mathfrak{r}}$. The constants $κ,\mathfrak{q},\mathfrak{r} \geq 0$ do not depend on the dimension $d$ of the state space or the approximation accuracy $\varepsilon$. This proves that deep neural …
This paper shows that penalized backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE), which is often used to approximate and solve the corresponding reflected BSDE, admits both optimal stopping representation and optimal control representation. The new feature of the optimal stopping representation is that the player is allowed to stop at exogenous Poisson arrival times. The convergence rate of the penalized BSDE then follows from the optimal stopping representation. The paper then applies to two classes of equations, namely multidimensional reflected BSDE and reflected BSDE with a constraint on t…
In this paper we consider an infinite time horizon risk-sensitive optimal stopping problem for a Feller--Markov process with an unbounded terminal cost function. We show that in the unbounded case an associated Bellman equation may have multiple solutions and we give a probabilistic interpretation for the minimal and the maximal one. Also, we show how to approximate them using finite time horizon problems. The analysis, covering both discrete and continuous time case, is supported with illustrative examples.
We introduce new variants of classical regression-based algorithms for optimal stopping problems based on computation of regression coefficients by Monte Carlo approximation of the corresponding $L^2$ inner products instead of the least-squares error functional. Coupled with new proposals for simulation of the underlying samples, we call the approach "pseudo regression". A detailed convergence analysis is provided and it is shown that the approach asymptotically leads to less computational cost for a pre-specified error tolerance, hence to lower complexity. The method is justified by numerical…
We propose a geometric approach for bounding average stopping times for stopped random walks in discrete and continuous time. We consider stopping times in the hyperspace of time indexes and stochastic processes. Our techniques relies on exploring geometric properties of continuity or stopping regions. Especially, we make use of the concepts of convex sets and supporting hyperplane. Explicit formulae and efficiently computable bounds are obtained for average stopping times. Our techniques can be applied to bound average stopping times involving random vectors, nonlinear stopping boundary, and …
The Chow-Robbins game is a classical still partly unsolved stopping problem introduced by Chow and Robbins in 1965. You repeatedly toss a fair coin. After each toss, you decide if you take the fraction of heads up to now as a payoff, otherwise you continue. As a more general stopping problem this reads \[V(n,x) = \sup_{τ}\operatorname{E} \left [ \frac{x + S_τ}{n+τ}\right]\] where $S$ is a random walk. We give a tight upper bound for $V$ when $S$ has subgassian increments. We do this by usinf the analogous time continuous problem with a standard Brownian motion as the driving process. From this…
In this paper, we propose an extension of the forward improvement iteration algorithm, originally introduced in Irle (2006) and recently reconsidered in Miclo and Villeneuve (2021). The main new ingredient is a flexible window parameter describing the look-ahead distance in the improvement step. We consider the framework of a Markovian optimal stopping problem in discrete time with random discounting and infinite time horizon. We prove convergence and show that the additional flexibility may significantly reduce the runtime.
We consider the mean-field game where each agent determines the optimal time to exit the game by solving an optimal stopping problem with reward function depending on the density of the state processes of agents still present in the game. We place ourselves in the framework of relaxed optimal stopping, which amounts to looking for the optimal occupation measure of the stopper rather than the optimal stopping time. This framework allows us to prove the existence of the relaxed Nash equilibrium and the uniqueness of the associated value of the representative agent under mild assumptions. Further…
In this note, we are concerned with the subgeometric rate of convergence of a Markov chain with discrete time parameter to its invariant measure in the $f$-norm. We clarify how three typical subgeometric rates of convergence are inherited under a discrete time version of Bochner's subordination. The crucial point is to establish the corresponding moment estimates for discrete time subordinators under some reasonable conditions on the underlying Bernstein function.
