We present a unified Bayesian assessment of model comparison and data-set consistency for LCDM (cold dark matter plus a cosmological constant) and minimal extensions (neutrino mass, spatial curvature, constant or evolving dark energy) using cosmic microwave background (CMB), baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO), and type Ia supernova (SN) data. The major results are summarized in the first three figures. We quantify model preference with Bayesian evidence and assess consistency with complementary evidence- and likelihood-based diagnostics applied uniformly across data-set combinations. For the models considered, updated Planck processing systematically improves internal CMB consistency (low-$\ell$ versus high-$\ell$, and primary CMB versus CMB lensing). The preference for a closed geometry and an associated ``curvature tension'' with BAO and/or CMB lensing are largely confined to earlier Planck likelihood implementations and weaken substantially when using updated CMB processing and more recent BAO measurements. Apparent evidence for evolving dark energy in CMB+BAO+SN combinations depends sensitively on the specific pairing of CMB and SN likelihoods: plausible alternatives shift inferred tensions by more than $1\,σ$ and can completely reverse the preferred model. Allowing a free neutrino mass tends to absorb residual shifts without introducing new inconsistencies, and we do not find robust evidence for a standalone $τ$-driven discrepancy once the full likelihood context is accounted for. We conclude that claims of a required update of our standard cosmological model from LCDM to $w_0w_a$CDM are premature.
This paper is dedicated to assessing modified cosmological settings based on the gravitational Standard-Model Extension (SME). Our analysis rests upon the Hubble tension (HT), which is a discrepancy between the observational determination of the Hubble parameter via data from the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and Type Ia supernovae, respectively. While the latter approach is model-independent, the former highly depends on the model used to describe the physics of the early Universe. Motivated by the HT, we take into account two recently introduced cosmological models as test frameworks of …
In this manuscript we reassess the potential of interacting dark matter-dark energy models in solving the Hubble constant tension. These models have been proposed but also questioned as possible solutions to the $H_0$ problem. Here we examine several interacting scenarios against cosmological observations, focusing on the important role played by the calibration of Supernovae data. In order to reassess the ability of interacting dark matter-dark energy scenarios in easing the Hubble constant tension, we systematically confront their theoretical predictions using a prior on the Supernovae Ia ab…
The mismatch between the locally measured expansion rate of the universe and the one inferred from observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) assuming the canonical $Λ$CDM model has become the new cornerstone of modern cosmology, and many new-physics set ups are rising to the challenge. Concomitant with the so-called $H_0$ problem, there is evidence of a growing tension between the CMB-preferred value and the local determination of the weighted amplitude of matter fluctuations $S_8$. It would be appealing and compelling if both the $H_0$ and $S_8$ tensions were resolved at once, but…
Up-to-date cosmological data analyses have shown that \textit{(a)} a closed universe is preferred by the Planck data at more than $99\%$ CL, and \textit{(b)} interacting scenarios offer a very compelling solution to the Hubble constant tension. In light of these two recent appealing scenarios, we consider here an interacting dark matter-dark energy model with a non-zero spatial curvature component and a freely varying dark energy equation of state in both the quintessential and phantom regimes. When considering Cosmic Microwave Background data only, a phantom and closed universe can perfectly …
New constraints on inhomogeneous Lemaître-Tolman-Bondi (LTB) models alternative to Dark Energy are presented, focusing on adiabatic profiles with space-independent Big Bang and baryon fraction. The Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) scale at early times is computed in terms of the asymptotic value and then projected to different redshifts by following the geodesics of the background metric. Additionally, a model-independent method to constraint the local expansion rate using a prior on supernovae luminosity is presented. Cosmologies described by an adiabatic GBH matter profile with Ω_{out}=1 an…
The growth of structure probes the re-ionization history and quasar abundance in the Universe, constituting an important probe of the cosmological predictions. Halos are not directly observable, however, so their mass and evolution must be inferred indirectly. Studies based on the assumption of a constant halo to stellar mass ratio M_h/M_* (extrapolated from z<4) reveal significant tension with LCDM---a failure known as "The Impossibly Early Galaxy Problem". But whether this ratio evolves or remains constant through redshift 4<z<10 is still being debated. To eliminate the tension with LCDM, it…
Simulation-based tension quantification of the cosmic dipole
The University of Sydney（悉尼大学）；CSIRO Space and Astronomy（澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织空间与天文部）；Cavendish Laboratory, Cambridge（剑桥卡文迪许实验室）；Kavli Institute for Cosmology, Cambridge（剑桥卡弗里宇宙学研究所）
Unified cosmological models have received a lot of attention in astrophysics community for explaining both the dark matter and dark energy evolution. The Chaplygin cosmologies, a well known name in this group have been investigated matched with observations from different sources. Obviously, Chaplygin cosmologies have to obey restrictions in order to be consistent with the observational data. As a consequence, alternative unified models, differing from Chaplygin model, are of special interest. In the present work we consider a specific example of such a unified cosmological model, that is quan…
The Hubble tension that the standard $Λ$CDM model is suffering from can be resolved with pre-recombination early dark energy. We present the first constraint on the tensor-to-scalar ratio $r$ in corresponding Hubble-tension-free cosmologies using the most recent BICEP/Keck cosmic microwave background (CMB) B-mode polarization data. We find, combining BICEP/Keck with Planck18 CMB and baryon acoustic oscillation data, that the models with larger Hubble constant $H_0$ will have tighter upper bound on $r$, and resolution $H_0\sim73$ km/s/Mpc of the Hubble tension tightens the upper bound to $r<0.0…
The measurements of Cosmic Microwave Background anisotropies made by the Planck satellite provide extremely tight upper bounds on the total neutrino mass scale ($Σm_ν<0.26 eV$ at $95\%$ C.L.). However, as recently discussed in the literature, Planck data show anomalies that could affect this result. Here we provide new constraints on neutrino masses using the recent and complementary CMB measurements from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope DR4 and the South Polar Telescope SPT-3G experiments. We found that both the ACT-DR4 and SPT-3G data, when combined with WMAP, mildly suggest a neutrino mass w…
Non-linear Structure Formation in Planck+DESI Favoured Interacting Dark Energy Cosmologies
University of Sheffield（谢菲尔德大学）；Durham University（杜伦大学）；Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul（南里奥格兰德联邦大学）；Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais（国家空间研究所）
The tension between early and late Universe probes of the Hubble constant has motivated various new FLRW cosmologies. Here, we reanalyse the Hubble tension with a recent age of the Universe constraint. This allows us to restrict attention to matter and a dark energy sector that we treat without assuming a specific model. Assuming analyticity of the Hubble parameter $H(z)$, and a generic low redshift modification to flat $Λ$CDM, we find that low redshift data ($z \lesssim 2.5$) and well-motivated priors only permit a dark energy sector close to the cosmological constant $Λ$. This restriction ru…
We propose that several of the anomalies that have been observed at large angular scales in the CMB have a common origin in a cosmic bounce that took place before the inflationary era. The bounce introduces a new physical scale in the problem, which breaks the almost scale invariance of inflation. As a result, the state of scalar perturbations at the onset of inflation is no longer the Bunch-Davies vacuum, but it rather contains excitations and non-Gaussianity, which are larger for infrared modes. We argue that the combined effect of these excitations and the correlations between CMB modes and…
In the context of cosmography approach and using the data of Hubble diagram for supernovae, quasars and gamma-ray bursts, we study some DE parametrizations and also the concordance $Λ$CDM universe. Using the different combinations of data sample including ({\it i}) supernovae (Pantheon), ({\it ii}) Pantheon + quasars and ({\it iii}) Pantheon + quasars + gamma-ray bursts and applying the minimization of $χ^2$ function of distance modulus of data samples in the context of Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, we first obtain the constrained values of the cosmographic parameters in model independent c…
The nature of the dark sector of the Universe remains one of the outstanding problems in modern cosmology, with the search for new observational probes guiding the development of the next generation of observational facilities. Clues come from tension between the predictions from ΛCDM and observations of gravitationally lensed galaxies. Previous studies showed that galaxy clusters in the ΛCDM are not strong enough to reproduce the observed number of lensed arcs. This work aims to constrain the warm dark matter cosmologies by means of the lensing efficiency of galaxy clusters drawn from these a…
We solve analytically and numerically the generalized Einstein equations in scalar-tensor cosmologies to obtain the evolution of dark energy and matter linear perturbations. We compare our results with the corresponding results for minimally coupled quintessence perturbations. Our results for natural (O(1)) values of parameters in the Lagrangian which lead to a background expansion similar to LCDM are summarized as follows: 1. Scalar-Tensor dark energy density perturbations are amplified by a factor of about 10^6 compared to minimally coupled quintessence perturbations on scales less than abou…
Early dark energy (EDE) that behaves like a cosmological constant at early times (redshifts $z\gtrsim3000$) and then dilutes away like radiation or faster at later times can solve the Hubble tension. In these models, the sound horizon at decoupling is reduced resulting in a larger value of the Hubble parameter $H_0$ inferred from the cosmic microwave background (CMB). We consider two physical models for this EDE, one involving an oscillating scalar field and another a slowly-rolling field. We perform a detailed calculation of the evolution of perturbations in these models. A Markov Chain Monte…
We explore whether non-standard dark sector physics might be required to solve the existing cosmological tensions. The properties we consider in combination are an interaction between the dark matter and dark energy components, and a dark energy equation of state $w$ different from that of the canonical cosmological constant $w=-1$. In principle, these two parameters are independent. In practice, to avoid early-time, superhorizon instabilities, their allowed parameter spaces are correlated. We analyze three classes of extended interacting dark energy models in light of the 2019 Planck CMB resu…
The recently proposed Multi-coupled Dark Energy (McDE) scenario - characterised by two distinct Cold Dark Matter (CDM) particle species with opposite couplings to a Dark Energy scalar field - introduces a number of novel features in the small-scale dynamics of cosmic structures, most noticeably the simultaneous existence of both attractive and repulsive fifth-forces. Such small-scale features are expected to imprint possibly observable footprints on nonlinear cosmic structures, that might provide a direct way to test the scenario. In order to unveil such footprints, we have performed the first…
We study the implications of a combined analysis of cosmic standard candles and standard rulers on the viability of cosmological models beyond the cosmological concordance model. To this end, we employ well-established data in the form of the joint light-curve analysis supernova compilation, baryon acoustic oscillations, and cosmic microwave background data on the one hand, and a recently proposed set of quasars as objects of known brightness on the other hand. The advantage of including the latter is that they extend the local distance measures to redshifts which have previously been out of r…
Fuzzy Dark Matter (FDM) represents an alternative and intriguing description of the standard Cold Dark Matter (CDM) fluid, able to explain the lack of direct detection of dark matter particles in the GeV sector and to alleviate small scales tensions in the cosmic large-scale structure formation. Cosmological simulations of FDM models in the literature were performed either with very expensive high-resolution grid-based simulations of individual haloes or through N-body simulations encompassing larger cosmic volumes but resorting on significant approximations in the FDM non-linear dynamics to r…
We investigate various scenarios which include interaction forms between dark matter and dark energy that exhibit sign reverse, namely where the transfer of energy between the dark fluids changes sign during evolution. We study the large-scale inhomogeneities in such interacting scenarios and we confront them with the latest astronomical data. Our analysis shows that the sign-changeable interaction models are able to produce stable perturbations. Additionally, the data seem to slightly favor a non-zero interaction, however, within $1σ$ confidence level (CL) the scenarios cannot be distinguishe…
The $Λ$CDM model provides a good fit to a large span of cosmological data but harbors areas of phenomenology. With the improvement of the number and the accuracy of observations, discrepancies among key cosmological parameters of the model have emerged. The most statistically significant tension is the $4-6σ$ disagreement between predictions of the Hubble constant $H_0$ by early time probes with $Λ$CDM model, and a number of late time, model-independent determinations of $H_0$ from local measurements of distances and redshifts. The high precision and consistency of the data at both ends presen…
The evidence in favor of a dark energy component dominating the Universe, and driving its presently accelerated expansion, has progressively grown during the last decade of cosmological observations. If this dark energy is given by a dynamic scalar field, it may also have a direct interaction with other matter fields in the Universe, in particular with cold dark matter. Such interaction would imprint new features on the cosmological background evolution as well as on the growth of cosmic structure, like an additional long-range fifth-force between massive particles, or a variation in time of t…
We perform a comprehensive analysis of the most common early- and late-Universe solutions to the $H_0$, Ly-$α$, and $S_8$ discrepancies. When considered on their own, massive neutrinos provide a natural solution to the $S_8$ discrepancy at the expense of increasing the $H_0$ tension. If all extensions are considered simultaneously, the best-fit solution has a neutrino mass sum of $\sim 0.4$ eV, a dark energy equation of state close to that of a cosmological constant, and no additional relativistic degrees of freedom. However, the $H_0$ tension, while weakened, remains unresolved. Motivated by …
Discordance in the $Λ$CDM cosmological model can be seen by comparing parameters constrained by CMB measurements to those inferred by probes of large scale structure. Recent improvements in observations, including final data releases from both Planck and SDSS-III BOSS, as well as improved astrophysical uncertainty analysis of CFHTLenS, allows for an update in the quantification of any tension between large and small scales. This paper is intended, primarily, as a discussion on the quantifications of discordance when comparing the parameter constraints of a model when given two different data s…
Early Dark Energy (EDE) contributing a fraction $f_{\rm EDE}(z_c)\sim 10 \%$ of the energy density of the universe around $z_c\simeq 3500$ and diluting as or faster than radiation afterwards, can provide a resolution to the Hubble tension, the $\sim 5σ$ discrepancy between the $H_0$ value derived from early- and late-universe observations within $Λ$CDM. However, it has been pointed out that Large-Scale Structure (LSS) data, which are in $\sim3σ$ tension with $Λ$CDM and EDE cosmologies, might alter these conclusions. We reassess the viability of the EDE against a host of high- and low-redshift …
We propose a one-parameter extension to $Λ$CDM, expected to strongly affect cosmological tensions. An effective dark radiation component in the early universe redshifts away as hot dark matter, then quintessence, tracking the dominant equation-of-state parameter and leaving a falsifiable torsion field in the current epoch. This picture results from a new Poincaré gauge theory (PGT), one of the most promising among the latest batch of 58 PGTs found to be both power-counting renormalisable and free from ghosts and tachyons. We systematically categorise the cosmologies of 33 of these PGTs, as spe…
Standard cosmology predicts that prior to matter-radiation equality about 41% of the energy density was in free-streaming neutrinos. In many beyond Standard Model scenarios, however, the amount and free-streaming nature of this component is modified. For example, this occurs in models with new neutrino self-interactions or an additional dark sector with interacting light particles. We consider several extensions of the standard cosmology that include a non-free-streaming radiation component as motivated by such particle physics models and use the final Planck data release to constrain them. Th…
Cosmological models with Galileon gravity are an alternative to the standard $Λ{\rm CDM}$ paradigm with testable predictions at the level of its self-accelerating solutions for the expansion history, as well as large-scale structure formation. Here, we place constraints on the full parameter space of these models using data from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) (including lensing), baryonic acoustic oscillations (BAO) and the Integrated Sachs-Wolfe (ISW) effect. We pay special attention to the ISW effect for which we use the cross-spectra, $C_\ell^{\rm T g}$, of CMB temperature maps and f…
Towards a Machine Learning Solution for Hubble Tension: Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) Analysis of Tsallis Holographic Dark Energy in Presence of Neutrinos
We present three tiers of Bayesian consistency tests for the general case of $correlated$ datasets. Building on duplicates of the model parameters assigned to each dataset, these tests range from Bayesian evidence ratios as a global summary statistic, to posterior distributions of model parameter differences, to consistency tests in the data domain derived from posterior predictive distributions. For each test we motivate meaningful threshold criteria for the internal consistency of datasets. Without loss of generality we focus on mutually exclusive, correlated subsets of the same dataset in t…
We study a new model of Energy-Momentum Squared Gravity (EMSG), called Energy-Momentum Log Gravity (EMLG), constructed by the addition of the term $f(T_{μν}T^{μν})=α\ln(λ\,T_{μν}T^{μν})$, envisaged as a correction, to the Einstein-Hilbert action with cosmological constant $Λ$. The choice of this modification is made as a specific way of including new terms in the right-hand side of the Einstein field equations, resulting in constant effective inertial mass density and, importantly, leading to an explicit exact solution of the matter energy density in terms of redshift. We look for viable cosmo…
The Hubble diagram constructed using HII galaxies (HIIGx) and Giant extragalactic HII regions (GEHR) as standard candles already extends beyond the current reach of Type Ia SNe. A sample of 156 HIIGx and GEHR sources has been used previously to compare the predictions of LCDM and R_h=ct, the results of which suggested that the HIIGx and GEHR sources strongly favour the latter over the former. But this analysis was based on the application of parametric fits to the data and the use of information criteria, which disfavour the less parsimonious models. In this paper, we advance the use of HII so…
The Bayesian view of DESI DR2 with unimpeded: Evidence and tension in a combined analysis with CMB and supernovae across cosmological models
Kavli Institute for Cosmology, University of Cambridge（卡弗里宇宙学研究所，剑桥大学）；Cavendish Laboratory, University of Cambridge（卡文迪许实验室，剑桥大学）；Institute of Astronomy, University of Cambridge（天文学研究所，剑桥大学）
