发表机构
Universidade do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte; Universidade Federal de Campina Grande（北里奥格兰德州大学; 坎皮纳格兰德联邦大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本文利用LISA亮标准汽笛模拟数据，比较三种宇宙学模型与真实数据的张力，发现其能有效区分Pantheon+SH0ES模型，但对Planck 2018和Union3无法区分。
AI 中文摘要
由LISA探测到的大质量黑洞双星系统产生的引力波将提供无需任何天体物理校准的亮度距离，从而提供一种独立于宇宙距离阶梯的膨胀历史探测手段。我们并非询问LISA将如何紧密地约束单一基准宇宙学，而是询问在多个相互矛盾的当代宇宙学中，未来的LISA数据集将使哪一个最为自洽。我们在三种基准宇宙学下构建了LISA亮标准汽笛的模拟目录，这些宇宙学取自参与当前$H_0$争议的数据集（Planck 2018、Union3和Pantheon+SH0ES），并包含了来自仪器噪声、弱引力透镜和宿主星系本动速度的自洽误差预算。我们将仅基于模拟LISA数据的后验与基于真实数据组合（包括Ia型超新星、DESI重子声学振荡、宇宙学计时器和压缩的Planck 2018 CMB）的后验进行比较，并在$(H_0,\Omega_m)$平面上量化它们之间的内部张力，将每种基准宇宙学与三种SN Ia汇编交叉比较。基准宇宙学驱动了张力，从$2.08\sigma$到远超$5\sigma$，而超新星汇编最多改变$1.2\sigma$。区分能力强烈不对称：Pantheon+SH0ES宇宙与我们测试的每个背景都不一致，其显著性远超$5\sigma$，即使对于近期种群模型预期的$10$-$20$个事件，显著性仍在$3$-$5\sigma$；而Planck 2018和Union3基准宇宙学在$H_0$上仅相差$0.24$ km/s/Mpc，无法通过任何目录大小来区分。因此，LISA亮标准汽笛是造父变星校准情景的敏锐仲裁者，在此误差预算下，对其他两种情景则保持沉默。
英文摘要
Gravitational waves from massive black hole binaries detected by LISA will deliver luminosity distances without any astrophysical calibration, offering a probe of the expansion history independent of the cosmic distance ladder. Rather than asking how tightly LISA will constrain a single fiducial cosmology, we ask which of several mutually discrepant present-day cosmologies a future LISA dataset would render most self-consistent. We build mock catalogues of LISA bright sirens under three fiducial cosmologies drawn from datasets that participate in the current $H_0$ discrepancy (Planck 2018, Union3 and Pantheon+SH0ES), with a self-consistent error budget from instrumental noise, weak lensing and host peculiar velocities. We compare the posterior from the simulated LISA data alone with that of a real-data combination of Type Ia supernovae, DESI baryon acoustic oscillations, cosmic chronometers and the compressed Planck 2018 CMB, and quantify their internal tension in the $(H_0,Ω_m)$ plane, crossing each fiducial with three SN Ia compilations. The fiducial drives the tension, from $2.08σ$ to well beyond $5σ$, while the supernova compilation changes it by at most $1.2σ$. The discriminating power is strongly asymmetric: a Pantheon+SH0ES universe is inconsistent with every background we test, at a significance far in excess of $5σ$ and still at $3$-$5σ$ for the $10$-$20$ events expected from recent population models, whereas the Planck 2018 and Union3 fiducials, which differ by only $0.24$ km/s/Mpc in $H_0$, cannot be separated by any catalogue size. LISA bright sirens are therefore a sharp arbiter of the Cepheid-calibrated scenario and, on this error budget, silent between the other two.
Comments28 pages, 9 figures, 5 tables
