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arXiv 2510.16940cs.LGcs.AIeess.SP

面向概率时间序列预测的 Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks(KANs)入门

A Primer on Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

Centre Tecnològic de Telecomunicacions de Catalunya (CTTC/CERCA)(加泰罗尼亚电信技术中心(CTTC/CERCA))

Cristian J. Vaca-Rubio, Roberto Pereira, Luis Blanco, Engin Zeydan, Màrius Caus

AI总结:

本文提出 P-KAN,将 KAN 的样条函数连接与 Gaussian、Student-t 预测分布参数化结合,用于卫星流量概率预测,并以更少参数在准确性、校准和效率—风险权衡上优于 MLP。

摘要:

本工作提出了 Probabilistic Kolmogorov-Arnold Network(P-KAN),这是 Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks(KANs)用于时间序列预测的一种新型概率扩展。通过用基于样条的函数连接替代标量权重,并直接对预测分布进行参数化,P-KAN 提供了表达能力强且参数高效的模型,能够捕捉非线性和重尾动态。我们在卫星流量预测任务上评估了 P-KAN,在该任务中,具备不确定性感知的预测可实现用于资源分配的动态阈值。结果表明,P-KAN 在准确性和校准方面始终优于 Multi Layer Perceptron(MLP)基线,在使用显著更少参数的同时实现了更优的效率—风险权衡。我们基于两种分布构建 P-KAN,即 Gaussian 分布和 Student-t 分布。Gaussian 变体提供稳健、保守的预测,适用于安全关键场景;而 Student-t 变体产生更尖锐的分布,可在需求稳定时提高效率。这些发现确立了 P-KAN 作为概率预测的强大框架,并可直接应用于卫星通信和其他资源受限领域。

英文摘要:

This work introduces Probabilistic Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (P-KAN), a novel probabilistic extension of Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) for time series forecasting. By replacing scalar weights with spline-based functional connections and directly parameterizing predictive distributions, P-KANs offer expressive yet parameter-efficient models capable of capturing nonlinear and heavy-tailed dynamics. We evaluate P-KANs on satellite traffic forecasting, where uncertainty-aware predictions enable dynamic thresholding for resource allocation. Results show that P-KANs consistently outperform Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) baselines in both accuracy and calibration, achieving superior efficiency-risk trade-offs while using significantly fewer parameters. We build up P-KANs on two distributions, namely Gaussian and Student-t distributions. The Gaussian variant provides robust, conservative forecasts suitable for safety-critical scenarios, whereas the Student-t variant yields sharper distributions that improve efficiency under stable demand. These findings establish P-KANs as a powerful framework for probabilistic forecasting with direct applicability to satellite communications and other resource-constrained domains.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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