This paper analyzes the impact of the National Minimum Wage from 2001 to 2021. The MNW increased from 505.7/month (2001) to 1,108.3/month (2021). Using the data provided by the Spanish Tax Administration Agency, databases that represent the entire population studied can be analyzed. More accurate results and more efficient predictive models are provided by these counts. This work is characterized by the database used, which is a national census and not a sample or projection. Therefore, the study reflects results and analyses based on historical data from the Spanish Salary Census 2001-2021. Various machine-learning models show that income inequality has been reduced by raising the minimum wage. Raising the minimum wage has not led to inflation or increased unemployment. On the contrary, it has been consistent with increased net employment, contained prices, and increased corporate profit margins. The most important conclusion is that an increase in the minimum wage in the period analyzed has led to an increase in the wealth of the country, increasing employment and company profits, and is postulated, under the conditions analyzed, as an effective method for the redistribution of wealth.
This paper analyzes whether a minimum wage should be used for redistribution on top of taxes and transfers. I characterize optimal redistribution for a government with three policy instruments -- labor income taxes and transfers, corporate income taxes, and a minimum wage -- using an empirically grounded model of the labor market with positive firm profits. A minimum wage can increase social welfare when it increases the average post-tax wages of low-skill labor market participants and when corporate profit incidence is large. When chosen together with taxes, the minimum wage can help the gove…
During recent crisis, wage subsidies played a major role in sheltering firms and households from economic shocks. During COVID-19, most workers were affected and many liberal welfare states introduced new temporary wage subsidies to protected workers' earnings and employment (OECD, 2021). New wage subsidies marked a departure from the structure of traditional income support payments and required reform. This paper uses simulated datasets to assess the structure and incentives of the Irish COVID-19 wage subsidy scheme (CWS) under five designs. We use a nowcasting approach to update 2017 microda…
We argue that the recent growth in income inequality is driven by disparate growth in investment income rather than by disparate growth in wages. Specifically, we present evidence that real wages are flat across a range of professions, doctors, software engineers, auto mechanics and cashiers, while stock ownership favors higher education and income levels. Artificial Intelligence and automation allocate an increased share of job tasks towards capital and away from labor. The rewards of automation accrue to capital, and are reflected in the growth of the stock market with several companies now …
In this paper, I present a visual representation of the relationship between mean hourly total compensation divided by per-capita GDP, hours worked per capita, and the labor share, and show the represented labor equilibrium equation is the definition of the labor share. I also present visual examination of the productivity horizon and wage compression, and use these to show the relationship between productivity, available employment per capita, and minimum wage. From this I argue that wages are measured in relation to per-capita GDP, and that minimum wage controls income inequality and product…
Residential segregation recently has shifted to more class or income-based in the United States, and neighborhoods are undergoing significant changes such as commuting patterns over time. To better understand the commuting inequality across neighborhoods of different income levels, this research analyzes commuting variability (in both distance and time) across wage groups as well as stability over time using the CTPP data 1990-2010 in Baton Rouge. In comparison to previous work, commuting distance is estimated more accurately by Monte Carlo simulation of individual trips to mitigate aggregatio…
This paper undertakes a near real-time analysis of the income distribution effects of the COVID-19 crisis in Australia to understand the ongoing changes in the income distribution as well as the impact of policy responses. By semi-parametrically combining incomplete observed data from three different sources, namely, the Monthly Longitudinal Labour Force Survey, the Survey of Income and Housing and the administrative payroll data, we estimate the impact of COVID-19 and the associated policy responses on the Australian income distribution between February and June 2020, covering the immediate p…
Decomposing taxes by source (labor, capital, sales), we analyze the impact of automation on tax revenues and the structure of taxation in 19 EU countries during 1995-2016. Pre-2008, robot diffusion lead to decreasing factor and tax income, and a shift from taxes on capital to goods. ICTs changed the structure of taxation from capital to labor, with decreasing employment, but increasing wages and labor income. Post-2008, we find an ICT-induced increase in capital income and services, but no effect on taxation from ICT/robots. Overall, automation goes through various phases with heterogeneous ec…
Structural Change, Employment, and Inequality in Europe: an Economic Complexity Approach
European Commission, Joint Research Center（欧盟委员会联合研究中心）；Enrico Fermi Research Center（恩里科·费米研究中心）；UNU-MERIT and Maastricht University（联合国大学欧洲社会研究所学术院和马斯特里赫特大学）
This paper critically reviews the research on the impact of immigration on employment and wages of natives in wealthy countries--where "natives" includes previous immigrants and their descendants. While written for a non-technical audience, the paper engages with technical issues and probes one particularly intense scholarly debate in an appendix. While the available evidence is not definitive, it paints a consistent picture. Industrial economies can generally absorb migrants quickly, in part because capital is mobile and flexible, in part because immigrants are consumers as well as producers.…
