自动化与税收
Automation and Taxation
摘要：
通过按来源（劳动力，资本，销售）分解税收，我们分析了1995-2016年期间自动化对19个欧盟国家税收收入和税收结构的影响。2008年之前，机器人的扩散导致要素和税收收入减少，并从资本税转向商品税。信通技术改变了税收结构，从资本转向劳动，就业减少，但工资和劳动收入增加。2008年后，我们发现信通技术引起的资本收入和服务增加，但对信通技术/机器人的税收没有影响。总的来说，自动化经历了不同的阶段，产生了不同的经济影响，影响了税收的数额和结构。自动化是否侵蚀税收取决于技术和推广阶段，因此，如果关注短期而忽视相关技术趋势，对公共预算的担忧可能是短视的。
英文摘要：
Decomposing taxes by source (labor, capital, sales), we analyze the impact of automation on tax revenues and the structure of taxation in 19 EU countries during 1995-2016. Pre-2008, robot diffusion lead to decreasing factor and tax income, and a shift from taxes on capital to goods. ICTs changed the structure of taxation from capital to labor, with decreasing employment, but increasing wages and labor income. Post-2008, we find an ICT-induced increase in capital income and services, but no effect on taxation from ICT/robots. Overall, automation goes through various phases with heterogeneous economic effects which impact the amount and structure of taxes. Whether automation erodes taxation depends on the technology and stage of diffusion, and thus concerns about public budgets might be myopic when focusing on the short-run and ignoring relevant technological trends.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
