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arXiv 2203.05358physics.soc-ph
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气候变化研究与气候变化政策有多大相关性?基于Overton数据的实证分析

How relevant is climate change research for climate change policy? An empirical analysis based on Overton data

Lutz Bornmann, Robin Haunschild, Kevin Boyack, Werner Marx, Jan C. Minx

摘要:

多年来,气候变化几乎是社会所有领域的一个持续话题。在不提及科学结果的情况下讨论气候变化是不可想象的。政策尤其如此,因为需要采取宏观行动,以避免给社会带来代价高昂的后果。在这项研究中,我们处理的问题是如何研究气候变化和政策的连接。2019年,新的奥弗顿政策文件数据库发布,包括政策文件引用的研究论文的链接。对气候变化研究成果和建议的利用可反映在政策文件中对科学论文的引用中。尽管我们怀疑奥弗顿政策文件的覆盖面存在很多不确定性,但国际气候政策周期似乎对政策文件的出版产生了影响。我们观察到,围绕国际气候外交中的重大决定,气候政策文件中出现了地方性的高峰。我们的研究结果指出,以气候变化为重点的政府间组织和智库发表的气候变化政策文件比预期的要多。我们发现,在气候变化政策文件中引用的气候变化论文平均比未在这些文件中引用的气候变化论文获得更多的引用。这两个社会领域(科学和政策)都专注于类似的气候变化研究领域:生物学,地球科学,工程学和疾病科学。基于本研究的这些和其他实证结果,我们提出了一个简单的政策影响模型,考虑到不同的文件类型链:该链开始与科学评估报告(系统评价),导致通过科学传播文件(政策简报,政策报告或平实语言摘要)和政府报告的立法文件。

英文摘要:

Climate change is an ongoing topic in nearly all areas of society since many years. A discussion of climate change without referring to scientific results is not imaginable. This is especially the case for policies since action on the macro scale is required to avoid costly consequences for society. In this study, we deal with the question of how research on climate change and policy are connected. In 2019, the new Overton database of policy documents was released including links to research papers that are cited by policy documents. The use of results and recommendations from research on climate change might be reflected in citations of scientific papers in policy documents. Although we suspect a lot of uncertainty related to the coverage of policy documents in Overton, there seems to be an impact of international climate policy cycles on policy document publication. We observe local peaks in climate policy documents around major decisions in international climate diplomacy. Our results point out that IGOs and think tanks -- with a focus on climate change -- have published more climate change policy documents than expected. We found that climate change papers that are cited in climate change policy documents received significantly more citations on average than climate change papers that are not cited in these documents. Both areas of society (science and policy) focus on similar climate change research fields: biology, earth sciences, engineering, and disease sciences. Based on these and other empirical results in this study, we propose a simple model of policy impact considering a chain of different document types: the chain starts with scientific assessment reports (systematic reviews) that lead via science communication documents (policy briefs, policy reports or plain language summaries) and government reports to legislative documents.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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