在气候建模和代际折扣中具有深度不确定性的最小最大遗憾气候政策
Minimax-Regret Climate Policy with Deep Uncertainty in Climate Modeling and Intergenerational Discounting
摘要：
综合评估模型已成为比较旨在减少温室气体排放的气候政策的主要工具。政策比较通常是通过考虑一个计划者来进行的，该计划者寻求在碳减排成本和气候变化造成的经济损失之间做出最佳权衡。规划问题已被形式化为一个最优控制，其目标是在一个时间范围内减少和损害的总成本最小化。将气候政策作为一个控制问题来研究的前提是，规划者有足够的知识使优化变得可行，但物理和经济上的不确定性比比皆是。早些时候，Manski，Sanstad和DeCanio提出并研究了使用最小最大遗憾（MMR）决策准则来解释气候建模中的深度不确定性。在这里，我们研究气候政策的选择，最大限度地减少最大的遗憾与深刻的不确定性，正确的气候模型和适当的时间贴现率，用于代际评估政策后果。该分析指定了一系列贴现率，以表达有关适当利率的经验和规范不确定性。关于气候政策的研究结果是新颖的和信息丰富的。MMR分析指出，气候政策使用了0.02的相对较低的贴现率。MMR决策规则将未来最大温度升高保持在1900-10年水平以上2摄氏度以下，用于衡量成本和损害的大多数参数值。
英文摘要：
Integrated assessment models have become the primary tools for comparing climate policies that seek to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Policy comparisons have often been performed by considering a planner who seeks to make optimal trade-offs between the costs of carbon abatement and the economic damages from climate change. The planning problem has been formalized as one of optimal control, the objective being to minimize the total costs of abatement and damages over a time horizon. Studying climate policy as a control problem presumes that a planner knows enough to make optimization feasible, but physical and economic uncertainties abound. Earlier, Manski, Sanstad, and DeCanio proposed and studied use of the minimax-regret (MMR) decision criterion to account for deep uncertainty in climate modeling. Here we study choice of climate policy that minimizes maximum regret with deep uncertainty regarding both the correct climate model and the appropriate time discount rate to use in intergenerational assessment of policy consequences. The analysis specifies a range of discount rates to express both empirical and normative uncertainty about the appropriate rate. The findings regarding climate policy are novel and informative. The MMR analysis points to use of a relatively low discount rate of 0.02 for climate policy. The MMR decision rule keeps the maximum future temperature increase below 2C above the 1900-10 level for most of the parameter values used to weight costs and damages.
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