如果投资者的信念倾向于预期未来强有力的气候政策，
Divestment may burst the carbon bubble if investors' beliefs tip to anticipating strong future climate policy
摘要：
为了实现巴黎气候协定的宏伟目标，大部分化石燃料储备需要留在地下。由于目前各国政府对减少温室气体排放的承诺远远不够，机构和私人投资者以及从化石燃料撤资的社会运动等行为体可以在向各国政府施加压力以实现脱碳方面发挥重要作用。使用一个随机代理为基础的模型，共同发展的金融市场和投资者的信念对未来的气候政策的适应性社会网络，在这里，我们发现，从化石燃料撤资的动态显示出潜在的社会倾斜远离化石燃料为基础的经济。我们的研究结果进一步表明，对社会负责的投资者具有杠杆作用：这种道德投资者的10- 20%的小份额足以引发碳泡沫的破裂，符合帕累托原则。这些研究结果表明，撤资有可能与其他社会运动和政策工具一起促进脱碳，特别是考虑到强有力的国际气候政策的可信紧迫性。我们的分析还表明，可能存在碳泡沫，对经济产生潜在的不稳定影响。
英文摘要：
To achieve the ambitious aims of the Paris climate agreement, the majority of fossil-fuel reserves needs to remain underground. As current national government commitments to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions are insufficient by far, actors such as institutional and private investors and the social movement on divestment from fossil fuels could play an important role in putting pressure on national governments on the road to decarbonization. Using a stochastic agent-based model of co-evolving financial market and investors' beliefs about future climate policy on an adaptive social network, here we find that the dynamics of divestment from fossil fuels shows potential for social tipping away from a fossil-fuel based economy. Our results further suggest that socially responsible investors have leverage: a small share of 10--20\,\% of such moral investors is sufficient to initiate the burst of the carbon bubble, consistent with the Pareto Principle. These findings demonstrate that divestment has potential for contributing to decarbonization alongside other social movements and policy instruments, particularly given the credible imminence of strong international climate policy. Our analysis also indicates the possible existence of a carbon bubble with potentially destabilizing effects to the economy.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
