作为积极科学的综合评估模型：为实现远低于2 $^\circ$ C的气候目标而制定的私营客运公路运输政策
Integrated assessment modelling as a positive science: private passenger road transport policies to meet a climate target well below 2$^\circ$C
摘要：
在全球温室气体排放中，交通运输产生的温室气体占很大比例，而且这一比例还在不断增加，从而导致气候变化。为了实现远低于2 $^\circ$ C的气候目标，需要有效的运输减排政策。在当前的综合评估模型（IAM）的技术发展的代表利用系统优化，可能并不总是提供足够的洞察消费者的反应，以广泛使用的政策制定现实的政策包。在这里，我们介绍FTT：运输，道路运输技术的进化技术扩散模拟模型，作为IAM的子组件，它具有足够现实的消费者特征和现有的技术轨迹，能够模拟详细的气候政策对私人客运道路运输的影响。结合基于模拟的宏观计量经济学IAM E3 ME-FTT，给出了一个合理的交通脱碳情景，由一个详细的交通政策包定义，达到足够的减排量，以实现《巴黎协定》的2 $^\circ$ C目标。
英文摘要：
Transport generates a large and growing component of global greenhouse gas emissions contributing to climate change. Effective transport emissions reduction policies are needed in order to reach a climate target well below 2$^\circ$C. Representations of technology evolution in current Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) make use of systems optimisations that may not always provide sufficient insight on consumer response to realistic policy packages for extensive use in policy-making. Here, we introduce FTT:Transport, an evolutionary technology diffusion simulation model for road transport technology, as an IAM sub-component, which features sufficiently realistic features of consumers and of existing technological trajectories that enables to simulate the impact of detailed climate policies in private passenger road transport. Integrated to the simulation-based macroeconometric IAM E3ME-FTT, a plausible scenario of transport decarbonisation is given, defined by a detailed transport policy package, that reaches sufficient emissions reductions to achieve the 2$^\circ$C target of the Paris Agreement.
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