Regression to the Mean can Explain Saturation of Geomagnetic Storms
The Catholic University of America（天主教大学）；NASA Goddard Space Flight Center（美国宇航局戈达德太空飞行中心）；University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）；Lancaster University（兰卡斯特大学）；University of Alaska, Fairbanks（阿拉斯加大学费尔班克斯分校）；Air Force Research Laboratory（空军研究实验室）
Nithin Sivadas, David Sibeck, Varsha Subramanyan, Maria-Theresia Walach, Dogacan Su Ozturk, Banafsheh Ferdousi, Bayane Michotte de Welle
备注：
This version of the article has been accepted for publication, after peer review but is not the Version of Record and does not reflect post-acceptance improvements, or any corrections. The Version of Record is published in Nature
Extreme space weather events on Earth occur during intervals of strong solar wind driving. The solar wind drives plasma convection and currents in the near-Earth space environment. For low values of the driver, the Earth's response is linear, estimated by parameters such as the polar cap index based on ground magnetometer activity. Curiously, for extreme solar wind driving, the Earth's response appears not to increase beyond a saturation limit. Theorists have advanced a host of explanations for this saturation effect, but there is no consensus. Here, we demonstrate that this saturation is a manifestation of the regression to the mean effect arising from random uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of solar wind measurements. Our results reveal that data analysis underpinning the saturation theories is non-linearly biased, thereby challenging the validity of the theories. Correcting for the uncertainties reveals that the Earth's response to solar wind driving is linear throughout, and that the impact of extreme geomagnetic storms can be twice as large as previously thought. We show that regression to the mean is a fundamental property of the relationship between measurement and the truth, where the truth corresponding to the measurement is closer to the mean. This effect is particularly pronounced for uncertain measurements of extreme values and is likely to manifest across various fields, from extreme climate studies to chronic medical pain.
An X1.7 flare at 10:15 UT and a halo CME with a projected speed of 942 km/s erupted from NOAA solar active region 9393 located at N20W19, were observed on 2001 March 29. When the CME reached the Earth, it triggered a super geomagnetic storm (hereafter super storm). We find that the CME always moved towards the Earth according to the intensity-time profiles of protons with different energies. The solar wind parameters responsible for the main phase of the super storm occurred on March 31, 2001 is analyzed taking into account the delayed geomagnetic effect of solar wind at the L1 point and using…
Coronal holes (CHs) are the source of high-speed streams (HSSs) in the solar wind, whose interaction with the slow solar wind creates corotating interaction regions (CIRs) in the heliosphere. Whenever the CIRs hit the Earth, they can cause geomagnetic storms. We develop a method to predict the strength of CIR/HSS-driven geomagnetic storms directly from solar observations using the CH areas and associated magnetic field polarity. First, we build a dataset comprising the properties of CHs on the Sun, the associated HSSs, CIRs, and orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at L1, and…
The largest geomagnetic storms of solar cycle 24 so far occurred on 2015 March 17 and June 22 with $D_{\rm st}$ minima of $-223$ and $-195$ nT, respectively. Both of the geomagnetic storms show a multi-step development. We examine the plasma and magnetic field characteristics of the driving coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in connection with the development of the geomagnetic storms. A particular effort is to reconstruct the in situ structure using a Grad-Shafranov technique and compare the reconstruction results with solar observations, which gives a larger spatial perspective of the source cond…
A geomagnetic storm is the result of sustained interaction between solar wind with a southward magnetic field and the magnetosphere. To investigate the influence of various solar wind parameters on the intensity of major geomagnetic storm, 67 major geomagnetic storms that occurred between 1998 and 2006 were used to calculate the correlation coefficients (CCs) between the intensities of major geomagnetic storms and the time integrals of southward interplanetary magnetic field $B_s$, solar wind electric field ($E_y$) and injection function (Q) during the main phase of the associated geomagnetic …
The Carrington storm in 1859 September has been arguably identified as the greatest geomagnetic storm ever recorded. However, its exact magnitude and chronology remain controversial, while their source data have been derived from the Colaba H magnetometer. Here, we have located the Colaba 1859 yearbook, containing hourly measurements and spot measurements. We have reconstructed the Colaba geomagnetic disturbances in the horizontal component (ΔH), the eastward component (ΔY), and the vertical component (ΔZ) around the time of the Carrington storm. On their basis, we have chronologically revised…
We report on the solar source of the 2022 February 3 geomagnetic storm of moderate strength that contributed to the loss of 39 Starlink satellites. The geomagnetic storm was caused by the 2022 January 29 halo coronal mass ejection (CME) that was of moderate speed (about 690 km/s) originating from NOAA active region 12936 located in the northeast quadrant (N18E06) of the Sun. The eruption was marked by an M1.1 flare, which started at 22:45 UT, peaked at 23:32 UT on January 29 and ended at 00:24 UT the next day. The CME ended up as a shock-driving magnetic cloud (MC) observed at Sun-Earth L1 and…
Forecasting geomagnetic storms is highly important for many space weather applications. In this study we review performance of the geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus during 2011--2016. The service was implemented in 2011 at SpaceWeather.Ru and predicts the expected strength of geomagnetic storms as measured by $Dst$ index several hours ahead. The forecast is based on L1 solar wind and IMF measurements and is updated every hour. The solar maximum of cycle 24 is weak, so most of the statistics are on rather moderate storms. We verify quality of selection criteria, as well as reliab…
The Forbush decrease (FD) and Geomagnetic storm (GS) are the two distinct space weather events having common causing agents like interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) or corotating interacting region (CIR). Generally, an ICME causes high amplitude FDs and extreme GSs. However, the interlinks between extreme GS and strong FDs are poorly studied. Here, we demonstrate five ICME induced extreme storms and their effects on respective FD profiles. We observed the sudden storm commencement of the GS coincides with the FD onset. Interestingly, we also noted a gradual increase in neutron counts d…
Content. Solar flares are often used as precursors of geomagnetic storms. In particular, Howard and Tappin (2005) recently published in A&A a dependence between X-ray class of solar flares and Ap and Dst indexes of geomagnetic storms which contradicts to early published results. Aims. We compare published results on flare-storm dependences and discuss possible sources of the discrepancy. Methods. We analyze following sources of difference: (1) different intervals of observations, (2) different statistics and (3) different methods of event identification and comparison. Results. Our analysis sh…
This paper presents the response of the ionosphere during the intense geomagnetic storms of October 12-20, 2016 and May 26-31, 2017 which occurred during the declining phase of the solar cycle 24. Total Electron Content (TEC) from GPS measured at Indore, Calcutta and Siliguri having geomagnetic dips varying from 32.23°N, 32°N and 39.49°N respectively and at the International GNSS Service (IGS) stations at Lucknow (beyond anomaly crest), Hyderabad (between geomagnetic equator and northern crest of EIA) and Bangalore (near magnetic equator) in the Indian longitude zone have been used for the sto…
Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) are a well-known terrestrial space weather hazard. They occur in power transmission networks and are known to have adverse effects in both high and mid-latitude countries. Here, we study GICs in the Irish power transmission network (geomagnetic latitude 54.7--58.5$^{\circ}$ N) during five geomagnetic storms (06-07 March 2016, 20-21 December 2015, 17-18 March 2015, 29-31 October 2003 and 13-14 March 1989). We simulate electric fields using a plane wave method together with two ground resistivity models, one of which is derived from magnetotelluric measure…
We use $Δ$SYM-H to capture the variation in the SYM-H index during the main phase of a geomagnetic storm. We define great geomagnetic storms as those with $Δ$SYM-H $\le$ -200 nT. After analyzing the data that were not obscured by solar winds, we determined that 11 such storms occurred during solar cycle 23. We calculated time integrals for the southward interplanetary magnetic field component I(B$_s$), the solar wind electric field I(E$_y$), and a combination of E$_y$ and the solar wind dynamic pressure I(Q) during the main phase of a great geomagnetic storm. The strength of the correlation co…
As an important source for large geomagnetic storms, an "ICME-in-sheath" is a completely shocked interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) stuck in the sheath between a shock and host ejecta. Typical characteristics are identified from coordinated multi-sets of observations: (1) it is usually short in duration and lasts a few hours at 1 AU; (2) its solar wind parameters, in particular the magnetic field, seem to keep enhanced for a large range of distances; and (3) common ICME signatures are often lost. The host ejecta could be a single ICME or a complex ejecta, being fast enough to drive a …
The paper presents an assessment of the performances of the global empirical models: International Reference Ionosphere (IRI)-2016 and the NeQuick2 model derived ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) with respect to the Navigation with Indian Constellation (NavIC)/ Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System(IRNSS) estimated TEC under geomagnetic storm conditions. The present study is carried out over Indore (Geographic: 22.52$^{\circ}$N 75.92$^{\circ}$E and Magnetic Dip: 32.23$^{\circ}$N, located close to the northern crest of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) region of the Indian se…
Geomagnetic activity in each phase of the solar cycle consists of 3 parts: (1) a floor below which the geomagnetic activity cannot fall even in the absence of sunspots, related to moderate graduate commencement storms; (2) sunspot-related activity due to sudden commencement storms caused by coronal mass ejections; (3) graduate commencement storms due to high speed solar wind from solar coronal holes. We find that the changes in the floor depend on the global magnetic moment of the Sun, and on the other side, from the height of the floor we can judge about the amplitude of the sunspot cycle.
The energy transfer during the interaction of large-scale solar wind structure and the Earth's magnetosphere is the chronic issue in space-weather studies. To understand this, researchers widely studied the geomagnetic storms and sub-storms phenomena. The present understanding suggests that long duration of southward interplanetary magnetic field component is the most important parameter for the geomagnetic storm. Such long duration strong southward magnetic field is often associated with ICMEs, torsional Alfven fluctuations superposed co-rotating interacting regions (CIRs) and fast solar wind…
We have performed an analysis of case events and statistics of positive ionospheric storms in the dayside region of the equatorial ionization anomaly during recurrent geomagnetic storms (RGSs), which dominate in geomagnetic and ionospheric conditions on the declining phase of solar activity in 2004 to 2008. It is shown that total electron content (TEC) has a tendency to minimize before the beginning of RGSs and to peak 3 to 4 days after, i.e. on the RGS recovery phase produced by high-intensity long-duration continuous auroral activity. The maximum of TEC coincides with the maximum of solar wi…
Forbush decrease (FD), discovered by Scott E. Forbush about 80 years ago, is reffered to as the non-repetitive short-term depression in galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux, presumed to be associated with large-scale perturbations in solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). It is the most spectacular variability in the GCR intensity which appear to be the compass for investigators seeking solar-terrestrial relationships. The method of selection and validation of FD events are very important to cosmic ray scientists. We have deployed a new computer software to determine the amplitude and t…
This paper presents the equatorial ionospheric response to eleven strong-to-severe geomagnetic storms that occurred during the period 2000-2005, the declining phase of the solar cycle 23. The analysis has been performed using the global ion density plots of Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP). Observations show that for about 91% of the cases, post-sunset equatorial irregularities occurred within 3h from the time of northward to southward transition of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) clock angle, thus bringing out the importance of the role played by IMF By in the process o…
Low-energy ions of ionospheric origin constitute a significant contributor to the magnetospheric plasma population. Measuring cold ions is difficult though. Observations have to be done at sufficiently high altitudes and typically in regions of space where spacecraft attain a positive charge due to solar illumination. Cold ions are therefore shielded from the satellite particle detectors. Furthermore, spacecraft can only cover key regions of ion outflow during segments of their orbit, so additional complications arise if continuous longtime observations, such as during a geomagnetic storm, are…
Geomagnetic storms are an important aspect of space weather and can result in significant impacts on space- and ground-based assets. The majority of strong storms are associated with the passage of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) in the near-Earth environment. In many cases, these ICMEs can be traced back unambiguously to a specific coronal mass ejection (CME) and solar activity on the frontside of the Sun. Hence, predicting the arrival of ICMEs at Earth from routine observations of CMEs and solar activity currently makes a major contribution to the forecasting of geomagnetic sto…
An unexpected strong geomagnetic storm occurred on 2018 August 26, which was caused by a slow coronal mass ejection (CME) from a gradual eruption of a large quiet-region filament. We investigate the eruption and propagation characteristics of this CME in relation to the strong geomagnetic storm with remote sensing and in situ observations. Coronal magnetic fields around the filament are extrapolated and compared with EUV observations. We determine the propagation direction and tilt angle of the CME flux rope near the Sun using a graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) model and the Sun-to-Earth kine…
The recovery phase of the largest storms ever recorded has been studied. These events provide an extraordinary opportunity for two goals: (1) to validate the hyperbolic model by Aguado et al. [2010] for the recovery phase after disturbances as severe as the Carrington event, or that related to the Hydro-Quebec blackout in March 1989, and (2) to check whether the linear relationship between the recovery time and the intensity of the storm still complies. Our results reveal the high accuracy of the hyperbolic decay function to reproduce the recovery phase of the magnetosphere after an extreme st…
In this study, we investigate thermospheric neutral mass density heating associated with 168 CME-driven geomagnetic storms in the period of May 2001 to September 2011. We use neutral density measured by two low-Earth orbit satellites: CHAMP and GRACE. For each storm, we superpose geomagnetic and density data for the time when the IMF B$_\mathrm{z}$ component turns sharply southward chosen as the zero epoch time. This indicates the storm main phase onset. We find that the average SYM-H index reaches the minimum of $-$42 nT near 12 hours after storm main phase onset. The Joule heating is enhance…
We present the results of a response of global seismicity to St. Patrick's Day (March 17) geomagnetic storms in 2013 and 2015, which occurred during rather similar solar flux levels and nearly identical storm sudden commencement times. A similar pattern of most substantial earthquake occurrence after storms is revealed. Namely, with a time delay of ~30 and ~39 days after storm onsets in 2013 and 2015, respectively, the strong crust earthquakes occurred at continental areas in Iran (M7.7, April 16, 2013) and Nepal (M7.8, April 25, 2015). Then, with a time delay of ~68 and ~74 days after storm o…
Geomagnetic activity is often described using summary indices to summarize the likelihood of space weather impacts, as well as when parameterizing space weather models. The geomagnetic index $\text{K}_\text{p}$ in particular, is widely used for these purposes. Current state-of-the-art forecast models provide deterministic $\text{K}_\text{p}$ predictions using a variety of methods -- including empirically-derived functions, physics-based models, and neural networks -- but do not provide uncertainty estimates associated with the forecast. This paper provides a sample methodology to generate a 3-…
Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has proven to be very successful in forecasting variety of irregular magnetospheric/ionospheric processes like geomagnetic storms and substorms. SYMH and ASYH indices represent longitudinal symmetric and asymmetric component of the ring current. Here, an attempt is made to develop a prediction model for these indices using ANN. The ring current state depends on its past conditions therefore, it is necessary to consider its history for prediction. To account this effect Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with eXogenous inputs (NARX) is implemented. This network con…
Using a three-dimensional nonhydrostatic general circulation model, we investigate the response of the thermosphere-ionosphere system to the 5-6 August 2011 major geomagnetic storm. The model is driven by measured storm-time input data of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF), solar activity, and auroral activity. Simulations for quiet steady conditions over the same period are performed as well in order to assess the response of the neutral and plasma parameters to the storm. During the storm, the high-latitude mean ion flows are enhanced by up to 150-180%. Largest ion flows are found in th…
Plasma pressure distribution in the inner magnetosphere is one of the key parameters for understanding the main magnetospheric processes including geomagnetic storms and substorms. However, the pressure profiles obtained from in-situ particle measurements by the high-altitude satellites do not allow tracking the pressure variations related to the storms and substorms, because a time interval needed to do this generally exceeds the characteristic times of them. On contrary, fast movement of low-altitude satellites makes it possible to retrieve quasi-instantaneous profiles of plasma pressure alo…
The effect of the main phase of two intense geomagnetic storm events which occurred on August 5 - 6 and September 26 - 27, 2011 on the equatorial ionosphere have been investigated using Global Positioning System (GPS) data obtained from an Ile-Ife station (geomagnetic lat. \ang{9.84}N, long. 77.25 degree E, Dip \ang{7.25}N). Total Electron Content (TEC) profiles during the main phase of the two geomagnetically disturbed days were compared with quiet time average profiles to examine the response of the equatorial ionosphere. The results showed that the intensity of both storm events during the …
Conditions in the solar wind resulting in magnetic storms on the Earth are a subject of long and intensive investigations. Recently Zhang et al. (2006), published a paper, where they used superposed epoch analyses method to study solar wind features during 549 geomagnetic storms. Unfortunately, the used methodical approach has not allowed to improve essentially understanding of relation of magnetic storms with conditions in the solar wind, and first of all for the following reasons: (1) they did not take into account of existance of storms generated by different types of solar wind, and (2) th…
This work presents, for the first time, the analysis of the occurrence of ionospheric irregularities during geomagnetic storms at Tucumán-Argentina, a low latitude station in the Southern American longitudinal sector ( 26.9 ° S, 294.6 ° E; magnetic latitude 15.5 ° S), near the southern crest of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). Three geomagnetic storms occurred on May 27, 2017 (a month of low occurrence rates of spread-F), October 12, 2016 (a month of transition from low to high occurrence rates of spread-F) and November 7, 2017 (a month of high occurrence rates of spread-F) are analyze…
The study of historical great geomagnetic storms is crucial for assessing the possible risks to the technological infrastructure of a modern society, caused by extreme space-weather events. The normal benchmark has been the great geomagnetic storm of September 1859, the so-called "Carrington Event". However, there are numerous records of another great geomagnetic storm in February 1872. This storm, about 12 years after the Carrington Event, resulted in comparable magnetic disturbances and auroral displays over large areas of the Earth. We have revisited this great geomagnetic storm in terms of…
On 2012 September 30 - October 1 the Earth underwent a two-step geomagnetic storm. We examine the Sun-to-Earth characteristics of the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) responsible for the geomagnetic storm with combined heliospheric imaging and in situ observations. The first CME, which occurred on 2012 September 25, is a slow event and shows an acceleration followed by a nearly invariant speed in the whole Sun-Earth space. The second event, launched from the Sun on 2012 September 27, exhibits a quick acceleration, then a rapid deceleration and finally a nearly constant speed, a typical Sun-to-Ear…
We input solar wind parameters responsible for the main phases of 15 great geomagnetic storms (GGSs: $Δ$SYM-H$\le-$200 nT) into the empirical formulae created by \cite{Burton1975}(hereafter Burton equation), and by \cite{OBrien2000}(hereafter OM equation) to evaluate whether \textbf{two equations} can correctly estimate the intensities of GGSs. The results show that the intensities of most GGSs estimated by OM equation are much smaller than the observed intensities. The RMS error between the intensities estimated by OM equation and the observed intensities is \textbf{203} nT, implying that the…
What one commonly considers for reproducing the recovery phase of magnetosphere, as seen by the Dst index, is exponential function. However, the magnetosphere recovers faster in the first hours than in the late recovery phase. The early steepness followed by the late smoothness in the magnetospheric response is a feature that leads to the proposal of a hyperbolic decay function to reproduce the recovery phase, instead of the exponential function. A superposed epoch analysis of recovery phases of intense storms from 1963-2006 was performed, categorizing the storms by their intensity into five s…
We report on the solar and interplanetary (IP) causes of the third largest geomagnetic storm (2018 August 26) in solar cycle 24. The underlying coronal mass ejection (CME) originating from a quiescent filament region becomes a 440 km/s magnetic cloud (MC) at 1 au after ~5 days. The prolonged CME acceleration (for about 24 hrs) coincides with the time profiles of the post-eruption arcade intensity and reconnected flux. Chen et al. (2019) obtain lower speed since they assumed that the CME does not accelerate after about 12 hrs. The presence of multiple coronal holes near the filament channel and…
While low latitude auroral displays are normally considered to be a manifestation of magnetic storms of considerable size, Silverman (2003, JGR, 108, A4) reported numerous "sporadic auroras" which appear locally at relatively low magnetic latitudes during times of just moderate magnetic activity. Here, a case study is presented of an aurora near the geomagnetic equator based on a report from the Philippine Islands on 27 October 1856. An analysis of this report shows it to be consistent with the known cases of sporadic aurorae except for its considerably low magnetic latitude. The record also s…
