An unexpected strong geomagnetic storm occurred on 2018 August 26, which was caused by a slow coronal mass ejection (CME) from a gradual eruption of a large quiet-region filament. We investigate the eruption and propagation characteristics of this CME in relation to the strong geomagnetic storm with remote sensing and in situ observations. Coronal magnetic fields around the filament are extrapolated and compared with EUV observations. We determine the propagation direction and tilt angle of the CME flux rope near the Sun using a graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) model and the Sun-to-Earth kinematics of the CME with wide-angle imaging observations from STEREO A. We reconstruct the flux-rope structure using a Grad-Shafranov technique based on the in situ measurements at the Earth and compare it with those from solar observations and the GCS results. Our conclusions are as follows: (1) the eruption of the filament was unusually slow and occurred in the regions with relatively low critical heights of the coronal field decay index; (2) the axis of the CME flux rope rotated in the corona as well as in interplanetary space, which tended to be aligned with the local heliospheric current sheet; (3) the CME was bracketed between slow and fast solar winds, which enhanced the magnetic field inside the CME at 1 AU; (4) the geomagnetic storm was caused by the enhanced magnetic field and a southward orientation of the flux rope at 1 AU from the rotation of the flux rope.
The largest geomagnetic storms of solar cycle 24 so far occurred on 2015 March 17 and June 22 with $D_{\rm st}$ minima of $-223$ and $-195$ nT, respectively. Both of the geomagnetic storms show a multi-step development. We examine the plasma and magnetic field characteristics of the driving coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in connection with the development of the geomagnetic storms. A particular effort is to reconstruct the in situ structure using a Grad-Shafranov technique and compare the reconstruction results with solar observations, which gives a larger spatial perspective of the source cond…
It has been established that Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) may have significant impact on terrestrial magnetic field and lead to space weather events. In the present study, we selected several CMEs which are associated with filament eruptions on the Sun. We attempt to identify the presence of filament material within ICME at 1AU. We discuss how different ICMEs associated with filaments lead to moderate or major geomagnetic activity on their arrival at the Earth. Our study also highlights the difficulties in identifying the filament material at 1AU within isolated and in interacting CMEs.
The Forbush decrease (FD) and Geomagnetic storm (GS) are the two distinct space weather events having common causing agents like interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) or corotating interacting region (CIR). Generally, an ICME causes high amplitude FDs and extreme GSs. However, the interlinks between extreme GS and strong FDs are poorly studied. Here, we demonstrate five ICME induced extreme storms and their effects on respective FD profiles. We observed the sudden storm commencement of the GS coincides with the FD onset. Interestingly, we also noted a gradual increase in neutron counts d…
On the basis of morphological analysis of yearly values of the maximum CME (coronal mass ejection) speed index, the sunspot number and total sunspot area, sunspot magnetic field, and solar flare index, the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field strength, and the geomagnetic Ap and Dst indices, we point out the particularities of solar and geomagnetic activity during the last cycle 23, the long minimum which followed it and the ascending branch of cycle 24. We also analyze temporal offset between the maximum CME speed index and the above-mentioned solar, geomagnetic, and interplanet…
An intense type III radio storm has been disrupted by a fast halo coronal mass ejection (CME) on 2000 April 4. The CME is also associated with a large solar energetic particle (SEP) event. The storm recovers after about10 hrs. We identified another CME that occurs on 2003 November 11 with similar CME properties but there is no type III storm in progress. The 2003 November 11 CME is also not associated with an SEP event above the background (less than 2 pfu), whereas the one with type III storm has an intense SEP event (about 56 pfu). One of the factors affecting the intensity of SEP events is …
As an important source for large geomagnetic storms, an "ICME-in-sheath" is a completely shocked interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) stuck in the sheath between a shock and host ejecta. Typical characteristics are identified from coordinated multi-sets of observations: (1) it is usually short in duration and lasts a few hours at 1 AU; (2) its solar wind parameters, in particular the magnetic field, seem to keep enhanced for a large range of distances; and (3) common ICME signatures are often lost. The host ejecta could be a single ICME or a complex ejecta, being fast enough to drive a …
We report on the 22-23 June 2015 geomagnetic storm. There has been a shortage of intense geomagnetic storms during the current solar cycle 24 in relation to the previous cycle. This situation changed after mid-June 2015 when one of the biggest solar active regions (AR 2371) of current solar cycle 24, close to the central meridian produced several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with M-class flares. The CMEs impact on the Earth's magnetosphere resulted in a moderately-severe G4-class geomagnetic storm on 22-23 June 2015 and a G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storms on 24 June. The G4 solstice…
Forbush decrease (FD), discovered by Scott E. Forbush about 80 years ago, is reffered to as the non-repetitive short-term depression in galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux, presumed to be associated with large-scale perturbations in solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). It is the most spectacular variability in the GCR intensity which appear to be the compass for investigators seeking solar-terrestrial relationships. The method of selection and validation of FD events are very important to cosmic ray scientists. We have deployed a new computer software to determine the amplitude and t…
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the primary sources of intense disturbances at Earth, where their geo-effectiveness is largely determined by their dynamic pressure and internal magnetic field, which can be significantly altered during interactions with other CMEs in interplanetary space. We analyse three successive CMEs that erupted from the Sun during September 4-6, 2017, investigating the role of CME-CME interactions as source of the associated intense geomagnetic storm (Dst_min=-142 nT on September 7). To quantify the impact of interactions on the (geo-)effectiveness of individual CMEs, w…
A correlative study between the geomagnetic indices and the peak values of various plasma and field parameters during rising, maximum and decay phases as well as during complete solar cycle 23 have been presented. We have also presented the lag/lead analysis between the maximum of Dst and peak values of plasma and field parameters and found that peak values of lag/lead time lies in the +/-10 hr interval. Three geomagnetic storms (GMSs) and associated solar sources observed during these phases of this solar cycle have also been studied and found that GMSs are associated with large flares and ha…
Geomagnetic storms are an important aspect of space weather and can result in significant impacts on space- and ground-based assets. The majority of strong storms are associated with the passage of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) in the near-Earth environment. In many cases, these ICMEs can be traced back unambiguously to a specific coronal mass ejection (CME) and solar activity on the frontside of the Sun. Hence, predicting the arrival of ICMEs at Earth from routine observations of CMEs and solar activity currently makes a major contribution to the forecasting of geomagnetic sto…
An X1.7 flare at 10:15 UT and a halo CME with a projected speed of 942 km/s erupted from NOAA solar active region 9393 located at N20W19, were observed on 2001 March 29. When the CME reached the Earth, it triggered a super geomagnetic storm (hereafter super storm). We find that the CME always moved towards the Earth according to the intensity-time profiles of protons with different energies. The solar wind parameters responsible for the main phase of the super storm occurred on March 31, 2001 is analyzed taking into account the delayed geomagnetic effect of solar wind at the L1 point and using…
Coronal holes (CHs) are the source of high-speed streams (HSSs) in the solar wind, whose interaction with the slow solar wind creates corotating interaction regions (CIRs) in the heliosphere. Whenever the CIRs hit the Earth, they can cause geomagnetic storms. We develop a method to predict the strength of CIR/HSS-driven geomagnetic storms directly from solar observations using the CH areas and associated magnetic field polarity. First, we build a dataset comprising the properties of CHs on the Sun, the associated HSSs, CIRs, and orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at L1, and…
The study of historical great geomagnetic storms is crucial for assessing the possible risks to the technological infrastructure of a modern society, caused by extreme space-weather events. The normal benchmark has been the great geomagnetic storm of September 1859, the so-called "Carrington Event". However, there are numerous records of another great geomagnetic storm in February 1872. This storm, about 12 years after the Carrington Event, resulted in comparable magnetic disturbances and auroral displays over large areas of the Earth. We have revisited this great geomagnetic storm in terms of…
On 2012 September 30 - October 1 the Earth underwent a two-step geomagnetic storm. We examine the Sun-to-Earth characteristics of the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) responsible for the geomagnetic storm with combined heliospheric imaging and in situ observations. The first CME, which occurred on 2012 September 25, is a slow event and shows an acceleration followed by a nearly invariant speed in the whole Sun-Earth space. The second event, launched from the Sun on 2012 September 27, exhibits a quick acceleration, then a rapid deceleration and finally a nearly constant speed, a typical Sun-to-Ear…
The Carrington storm in 1859 September has been arguably identified as the greatest geomagnetic storm ever recorded. However, its exact magnitude and chronology remain controversial, while their source data have been derived from the Colaba H magnetometer. Here, we have located the Colaba 1859 yearbook, containing hourly measurements and spot measurements. We have reconstructed the Colaba geomagnetic disturbances in the horizontal component (ΔH), the eastward component (ΔY), and the vertical component (ΔZ) around the time of the Carrington storm. On their basis, we have chronologically revised…
In the early days of 2017 September, an exceptionally energetic solar active region AR12673 aroused great interest in the solar physics community. It produced four X class flares, more than 20 CMEs and an intense geomagnetic storm, for which the peak value of the Dst index reached up to -142nT at 2017 September 8 02:00 UT. In this work, we check the interplanetary and solar source of this intense geomagnetic storm. We find that this geomagnetic storm was mainly caused by a shock-ICME complex structure, which was formed by a shock driven by the 2017 September 6 CME propagating into a previous I…
We report on the solar and interplanetary (IP) causes of the third largest geomagnetic storm (2018 August 26) in solar cycle 24. The underlying coronal mass ejection (CME) originating from a quiescent filament region becomes a 440 km/s magnetic cloud (MC) at 1 au after ~5 days. The prolonged CME acceleration (for about 24 hrs) coincides with the time profiles of the post-eruption arcade intensity and reconnected flux. Chen et al. (2019) obtain lower speed since they assumed that the CME does not accelerate after about 12 hrs. The presence of multiple coronal holes near the filament channel and…
The main objective of the study is to determine the probability distributions of the geomagnetic Dst index as a function of the coronal mass ejection (CME) and solar flare parameters for the purpose of establishing a probabilistic forecast tool for the geomagnetic storm intensity. Several CME and flare parameters as well as the effect of successive-CME occurrence in changing the probability for a certain range of Dst index values, were examined. The results confirm some of already known relationships between remotely-observed properties of solar eruptive events and geomagnetic storms, namely t…
Solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are main drivers of the most powerful non-recurrent geomagnetic storms. In the extreme-ultraviolet range, CMEs are accompanied by bright post-eruption arcades and dark dimmings. The analysis of events of the Solar Cycle 23 (Chertok et al., 2013, Solar Phys. 282, 175) revealed that the summarized unsigned magnetic flux in the arcades and dimming regions at the photospheric level, $Φ$, is significantly related to the intensity (Dst index) of geomagnetic storms. This provides the basis for the earliest diagnosis of geoefficiency of solar eruptions. In the prese…
Taking the 32 storm sudden commencements (SSCs) listed by ISGI during 2002 as a starting point, we performed a multi-criterion analysis based on observations (propagation time, velocity comparisons, sense of the magnetic field rotation, radio waves) to associate them with solar sources. We identified their effects in the interplanetary medium, and looked at the response of the terrestrial ionized and neutral environment. We find that 28 SSCs can be related to 44 coronal mass ejections (CMEs), 15 with a unique CME and 13 with a series of multiple CMEs, among which 19 involved halo CMEs; 12 of t…
We report on the solar source of the 2022 February 3 geomagnetic storm of moderate strength that contributed to the loss of 39 Starlink satellites. The geomagnetic storm was caused by the 2022 January 29 halo coronal mass ejection (CME) that was of moderate speed (about 690 km/s) originating from NOAA active region 12936 located in the northeast quadrant (N18E06) of the Sun. The eruption was marked by an M1.1 flare, which started at 22:45 UT, peaked at 23:32 UT on January 29 and ended at 00:24 UT the next day. The CME ended up as a shock-driving magnetic cloud (MC) observed at Sun-Earth L1 and…
We investigate how a weak coronal mass ejection (CME) launched on 2016 October 8 without obvious signatures in the low corona produced a relatively intense geomagnetic storm. Remote sensing observations from SDO, STEREO and SOHO and in situ measurements from WIND are employed to track the CME from the Sun to the Earth. Using a graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) model, we estimate the propagation direction and the morphology of the CME near the Sun. CME kinematics are determined from the wide-angle imaging observations of STEREO A and are used to predict the CME arrival time and speed at the Ear…
On 7 January 2014 an X1.2 flare and CME with a radial speed $\approx$2500 km s$^{-1}$ was observed from near an active region close to disk center. This led many forecasters to estimate a rapid arrival at Earth ($\approx$36 hours) and predict a strong geomagnetic storm. However, only a glancing CME arrival was observed at Earth with a transit time of $\approx$49 hours and a $K_{\rm P}$ geomagnetic index of only $3-$. We study the interplanetary propagation of this CME using the ensemble Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model, that allows a sampling of CME parameter uncertainties. We explore …
Extreme space weather events including $\ge$X5.0 flares, ground level enhancement (GLE) events and super geomagnetic storms (Dst $\le$ -250 nT) caused by super active regions (SARs) during solar cycles 21-24 were studied. The total number of $\ge$X5.0 solar flares was 62, 41 of them were X5.0-X9.9 flares and 21 of them were $\ge$X10.0 flares. We found that 83.9\% of the $\ge$X5.0 flares were produced by SARs. 78.05\% of the X5.0-X9.9 and 95.24\% of the $\ge$X10.0 solar flares were produced by SARs. 46 GLEs registered during solar cycles 21-24, and 25 GLEs were caused by SARs, indicating that 5…
Solar cycle 23 witnessed the observation of hundreds of halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs), thanks to the high dynamic range and extended field of view of the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission. More than two thirds of halo CMEs originating on the front side of the Sun have been found to be geoeffective (Dst =< -50 nT). The delay time between the onset of halo CMEs and the peak of ensuing geomagnetic storms has been found to depend on the solar source location (Gopalswamy et al., 2007). In particular, limb halo CMEs …
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the largest type of eruptions on the Sun and the main driver of severe space weather at the Earth. In this study, we implement a force-free spheromak CME description within 3-D magnetohydrodynamic simulations to parametrically evaluate successive interacting CMEs within a representative heliosphere. We explore CME-CME interactions for a range of orientations, launch time variations and CME handedness and quantify their geo-effectiveness via the primary solar wind variables and empirical measures of the disturbance storm time index and subsolar magnetopause sta…
Geomagnetic storms, disturbances of Earth's magnetosphere caused by masses of charged particles being emitted from the Sun, are an uncontrollable threat to modern technology. Notably, they have the potential to damage satellites and cause instability in power grids on Earth, among other disasters. They result from high sun activity, which are induced from cool areas on the Sun known as sunspots. Forecasting the storms to prevent disasters requires an understanding of how and when they will occur. However, current prediction methods at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) …
More than 140 isolated non-recurrent geomagnetic storms (GMSs) of various intensities from extreme to weak are considered, which are reliably identified with solar eruptive sources (coronal mass ejections, CMEs). The analysis aims to obtain a possibly complete picture of the relationship between the transit time of propagation of CMEs and interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) from the Sun to the Earth (more precisely, the time interval dtp from the moment of an eruption until the peak of the corresponding GMS) and the maximum intensity of this GMS, as measured by the disturbance storm …
This paper presents the response of the ionosphere during the intense geomagnetic storms of October 12-20, 2016 and May 26-31, 2017 which occurred during the declining phase of the solar cycle 24. Total Electron Content (TEC) from GPS measured at Indore, Calcutta and Siliguri having geomagnetic dips varying from 32.23°N, 32°N and 39.49°N respectively and at the International GNSS Service (IGS) stations at Lucknow (beyond anomaly crest), Hyderabad (between geomagnetic equator and northern crest of EIA) and Bangalore (near magnetic equator) in the Indian longitude zone have been used for the sto…
We study the solar sources of an intense geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 23 that occurred on 20 November 2003, based on ground- and space-based multiwavelength observations. The coronal mass ejections (CMEs) responsible for the above geomagnetic storm originated from the super-active region NOAA 10501. We investigate the H-alpha observations of the flare events made with a 15 cm solar tower telescope at ARIES, Nainital, India. The propagation characteristics of the CMEs have been derived from the three-dimensional images of the solar wind (i.e., density and speed) obtained from the interplane…
The sun occasionally undergoes the so-called grand minima, in which its magnetic activity, measured by the number of sunspots, is suppressed for decades. The most prominent grand minima, since the beginning of telescopic observations of sunspots, is the Maunder minimum (1645-1715), when the sunspots became rather scarce. The mechanism underlying the grand minima remains poorly understood as there is little observational information of the solar magnetic field at that time. In this study, we examine the records of one candidate aurora display in China and Japan during the Maunder minimum. The p…
Major solar eruptions occasionally direct interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) to Earth and cause significant geomagnetic storms and low-latitude aurorae. While single extreme storms are of significant threats to the modern civilization, storms occasionally appear in sequence and, acting synergistically, cause 'perfect storms' at Earth. The stormy interval in January 1938 was one of such cases. Here, we analyze the contemporary records to reveal its time series on their source active regions, solar eruptions, ICMEs, geomagnetic storms, low-latitude aurorae, and cosmic-ray (CR) variati…
In this article we present results of the study on the association between the muon flux variation at ground level, registered by the \textit{\textit{New-Tupi}} muon telescopes ($22^0 53'00''S,\; 43^0 06'13'W$; 3 m above sea level) and a geomagnetic storm of 25\,--\,29 August 2015 that has raged for several days as a result of a coronal mass ejection (CME) impact on Earth's magnetosphere. A sequence of events started with an M3.5 X-ray class flare on 22 August 2015 at 21:19 UTC. The \textit{\textit{New-Tupi}} muon telescopes observed a Forbush decrease (FD) triggered by this geomagnetic storm,…
The paper presents an assessment of the performances of the global empirical models: International Reference Ionosphere (IRI)-2016 and the NeQuick2 model derived ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) with respect to the Navigation with Indian Constellation (NavIC)/ Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System(IRNSS) estimated TEC under geomagnetic storm conditions. The present study is carried out over Indore (Geographic: 22.52$^{\circ}$N 75.92$^{\circ}$E and Magnetic Dip: 32.23$^{\circ}$N, located close to the northern crest of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) region of the Indian se…
Given the infrequency of extreme geomagnetic storms, it is significant to note the concentration of three extreme geomagnetic storms in 1941, whose intensities ranked fourth, twelfth, and fifth within the aa index between 1868-2010. Among them, the geomagnetic storm on 1 March 1941 was so intense that three of the four Dst station magnetograms went off scale. Herein, we reconstruct its time series and measure the storm intensity with an alternative Dst estimate (Dst*). The source solar eruption at 09:29 - 09:38 GMT on 28 February was located at RGO AR 13814 and its significant intensity is con…
A Multi-Diagnostic Observational Framework for Magnetosonic Solitary Waves During Geomagnetic Storms in Solar Cycles 24 and 25 using Cluster II Mission
This paper presents the equatorial ionospheric response to eleven strong-to-severe geomagnetic storms that occurred during the period 2000-2005, the declining phase of the solar cycle 23. The analysis has been performed using the global ion density plots of Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP). Observations show that for about 91% of the cases, post-sunset equatorial irregularities occurred within 3h from the time of northward to southward transition of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) clock angle, thus bringing out the importance of the role played by IMF By in the process o…
We investigate the relationship between the monthly averaged maximal speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), international sunspot number (ISSN), and the geomagnetic Dst and Ap indices covering the 1996-2008 time interval (solar cycle 23). Our new findings are as follows. (1) There is a noteworthy relationship between monthly averaged maximum CME speeds and sunspot numbers, Ap and Dst indices. Various peculiarities in the monthly Dst index are correlated better with the fine structures in the CME speed profile than that in the ISSN data. (2) Unlike the sunspot numbers, the CME speed index doe…
Propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the Sun far into interplanetary space is not well understood due to limited observations. In this study we examine the propagation characteristics of two geo-effective CMEs, which occurred on 2005 May 6 and 13, respectively. Significant heliospheric consequences associated with the two CMEs are observed, including interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) at the Earth and Ulysses, interplanetary shocks, a long-duration type II radio burst, and intense geomagnetic storms. We use coronagraph observations from SOHO/LASCO, frequency drift of the long-duration ty…
We present a clear case of a Diffuse Interplanetary Radio Emission (DIRE) event observed during 2002 March 11-12 in association with a fast coronal mass ejection (CME). In the previous event reported [1], there were two CMEs, and a detailed analysis was required to pin down the underlying CME. In the event presented here, the CME association is unambiguous, and the DIRE is found to originate from the flanks of the CME-driven shock. We also provide quantitative explanation for not observing radio emission from the shock nose. We also clarify that DIRE is not a type III storm because the latter …
