本研究探讨了2024年5月8日至13日期间银河宇宙线密度与各向异性的行为特征，及其与太阳源、行星际扰动和地磁扰动的关联。在此期间观测到了强烈的太阳耀斑与快速CME（日冕物质抛射），引发了一场极端地磁暴，同时出现了整个观测期内最显著的Forbush效应之一。宇宙线特征的所有计算均基于全球中子监测网络的数据，并采用IZMIRAN（俄罗斯科学院地磁、电离层和无线电波传播研究所）的特色方法：Global Survey Method（全球巡测法）和Ring of Stations Method（台站环法）。研究确定，本次研究的Forbush效应幅度为15.7%（针对刚度为10 GV的粒子）；由于记录到极端地磁暴，中子监测仪数据中还观测到显著的磁层效应（约4%）。
英文摘要：
The work investigates the features of galactic cosmic ray density and anisotropy behavior and their relation to solar sources, interplanetary and geomagnetic disturbances from May 8 to May 13, 2024. During this time, powerful solar flares and fast CMEs were recorded, leading to registration of an extreme geomagnetic storm along with one of the most significant Forbush effects for the entire observation period. All the calculations of cosmic ray characteristics are made using the data of global neutron monitor network and unique methods maintained at IZMIRAN: the Global Survey Method and the Ring of Stations Method. It is determined that the magnitude of Forbush effect under study was 15.7% (for particles with 10 GV rigidity) and as an extreme geomagnetic storm was recorded there was a significant magnetospheric effect observed in the data of neutron monitors (~4%).
Forbush decrease (FD), discovered by Scott E. Forbush about 80 years ago, is reffered to as the non-repetitive short-term depression in galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux, presumed to be associated with large-scale perturbations in solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). It is the most spectacular variability in the GCR intensity which appear to be the compass for investigators seeking solar-terrestrial relationships. The method of selection and validation of FD events are very important to cosmic ray scientists. We have deployed a new computer software to determine the amplitude and t…
The Forbush decrease (FD) and Geomagnetic storm (GS) are the two distinct space weather events having common causing agents like interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) or corotating interacting region (CIR). Generally, an ICME causes high amplitude FDs and extreme GSs. However, the interlinks between extreme GS and strong FDs are poorly studied. Here, we demonstrate five ICME induced extreme storms and their effects on respective FD profiles. We observed the sudden storm commencement of the GS coincides with the FD onset. Interestingly, we also noted a gradual increase in neutron counts d…
In this report we present two complex eruptive solar events and the associated Cosmic Ray effects (Forbush decrease). We use combined recordings from a number of Earthbound Receivers, Space Experiments and data archives (such as the ARTEMIS-IV Radio spectrograph, the Athens NEUTRON MONITOR, the LASCO CME Lists, the SONG of the {CORONAS-F} satellite, etc.). The influence of solar transients on the interplanetary medium conditions and the cosmic ray flux is analysed and discussed. The observed time sequence of events of this time period indicates that the initiation of CMEs is closely related to…
The largest geomagnetic storms of solar cycle 24 so far occurred on 2015 March 17 and June 22 with $D_{\rm st}$ minima of $-223$ and $-195$ nT, respectively. Both of the geomagnetic storms show a multi-step development. We examine the plasma and magnetic field characteristics of the driving coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in connection with the development of the geomagnetic storms. A particular effort is to reconstruct the in situ structure using a Grad-Shafranov technique and compare the reconstruction results with solar observations, which gives a larger spatial perspective of the source cond…
Based on our tool for the early diagnostics of solar eruption geoeffectiveness (EDSEG tool; Chertok et al., 2013, 2015, 2017), we have analyzed space weather disturbances that occurred in early September 2017. Two flares, SOL2017-09-04T20:33 (M5.5) and SOL2017-09-06T12:02 (X9.3), accompanied by Earth-directed halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were found to be geoeffective. We extracted the associated EUV dimmings and arcades and calculated their total unsigned magnetic flux. This calculation allowed us to estimate the possible scales of the Forbush decreases (FDs) and geomagnetic storms (GMSs…
Geomagnetic Storm Impacts On The Ionosphere Over Türkiye During Solar Cycle 25: Focusing On The May 2024 Storm
Yeditepe University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Programme of Physics（耶迪特佩大学，文理学院，物理系）；Istanbul University, Institute of Graduate Studies in Science, Programme of Astronomy and Space Sciences（伊斯坦布尔大学，科学研究生研究所，天文学与空间科学系）；Akdeniz University, Faculty of Science, Department of Space Sciences and Technologies（安塔利亚大学，理学院，空间科学与技术系）
This paper presents the response of the ionosphere during the intense geomagnetic storms of October 12-20, 2016 and May 26-31, 2017 which occurred during the declining phase of the solar cycle 24. Total Electron Content (TEC) from GPS measured at Indore, Calcutta and Siliguri having geomagnetic dips varying from 32.23°N, 32°N and 39.49°N respectively and at the International GNSS Service (IGS) stations at Lucknow (beyond anomaly crest), Hyderabad (between geomagnetic equator and northern crest of EIA) and Bangalore (near magnetic equator) in the Indian longitude zone have been used for the sto…
An X1.7 flare at 10:15 UT and a halo CME with a projected speed of 942 km/s erupted from NOAA solar active region 9393 located at N20W19, were observed on 2001 March 29. When the CME reached the Earth, it triggered a super geomagnetic storm (hereafter super storm). We find that the CME always moved towards the Earth according to the intensity-time profiles of protons with different energies. The solar wind parameters responsible for the main phase of the super storm occurred on March 31, 2001 is analyzed taking into account the delayed geomagnetic effect of solar wind at the L1 point and using…
Coronal holes (CHs) are the source of high-speed streams (HSSs) in the solar wind, whose interaction with the slow solar wind creates corotating interaction regions (CIRs) in the heliosphere. Whenever the CIRs hit the Earth, they can cause geomagnetic storms. We develop a method to predict the strength of CIR/HSS-driven geomagnetic storms directly from solar observations using the CH areas and associated magnetic field polarity. First, we build a dataset comprising the properties of CHs on the Sun, the associated HSSs, CIRs, and orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at L1, and…
The paper presents an assessment of the performances of the global empirical models: International Reference Ionosphere (IRI)-2016 and the NeQuick2 model derived ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) with respect to the Navigation with Indian Constellation (NavIC)/ Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System(IRNSS) estimated TEC under geomagnetic storm conditions. The present study is carried out over Indore (Geographic: 22.52$^{\circ}$N 75.92$^{\circ}$E and Magnetic Dip: 32.23$^{\circ}$N, located close to the northern crest of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) region of the Indian se…
The Carrington storm in 1859 September has been arguably identified as the greatest geomagnetic storm ever recorded. However, its exact magnitude and chronology remain controversial, while their source data have been derived from the Colaba H magnetometer. Here, we have located the Colaba 1859 yearbook, containing hourly measurements and spot measurements. We have reconstructed the Colaba geomagnetic disturbances in the horizontal component (ΔH), the eastward component (ΔY), and the vertical component (ΔZ) around the time of the Carrington storm. On their basis, we have chronologically revised…
This paper presents the equatorial ionospheric response to eleven strong-to-severe geomagnetic storms that occurred during the period 2000-2005, the declining phase of the solar cycle 23. The analysis has been performed using the global ion density plots of Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP). Observations show that for about 91% of the cases, post-sunset equatorial irregularities occurred within 3h from the time of northward to southward transition of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) clock angle, thus bringing out the importance of the role played by IMF By in the process o…
We present an analysis of a Suzaku observation taken during the geomagnetic storm of 2005 August 23-24. We found time variation of diffuse soft X-ray emission when a coronal mass ejection hit Earth and caused a geomagnetic storm. The diffuse emission consists of fluorescent scattering of solar X-rays and exospheric solarwind charge exchange. The former is characterized by a neutral oxygen emission line due to strong heating of the upper atmosphere during the storm time, while the latter is dominated by a sum of C V, C VI, N VI, N VII, O VII, and O VIII emission lines due to the enhanced solar …
Geomagnetic storms, disturbances of Earth's magnetosphere caused by masses of charged particles being emitted from the Sun, are an uncontrollable threat to modern technology. Notably, they have the potential to damage satellites and cause instability in power grids on Earth, among other disasters. They result from high sun activity, which are induced from cool areas on the Sun known as sunspots. Forecasting the storms to prevent disasters requires an understanding of how and when they will occur. However, current prediction methods at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) …
This study aims at the early diagnostics of geoeffectiveness of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from quantitative parameters of the accompanying EUV dimming and arcade events. We study events of the 23th solar cycle, in which major non-recurrent geomagnetic storms (GMS) with Dst <-100 nT are sufficiently reliably identified with their solar sources in the central part of the disk. Using the SOHO/EIT 195 A images and MDI magnetograms, we select significant dimming and arcade areas and calculate summarized unsigned magnetic fluxes in these regions at the photospheric level. The high relevance of t…
We report on the 22-23 June 2015 geomagnetic storm. There has been a shortage of intense geomagnetic storms during the current solar cycle 24 in relation to the previous cycle. This situation changed after mid-June 2015 when one of the biggest solar active regions (AR 2371) of current solar cycle 24, close to the central meridian produced several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with M-class flares. The CMEs impact on the Earth's magnetosphere resulted in a moderately-severe G4-class geomagnetic storm on 22-23 June 2015 and a G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storms on 24 June. The G4 solstice…
A correlative study between the geomagnetic indices and the peak values of various plasma and field parameters during rising, maximum and decay phases as well as during complete solar cycle 23 have been presented. We have also presented the lag/lead analysis between the maximum of Dst and peak values of plasma and field parameters and found that peak values of lag/lead time lies in the +/-10 hr interval. Three geomagnetic storms (GMSs) and associated solar sources observed during these phases of this solar cycle have also been studied and found that GMSs are associated with large flares and ha…
We report on the solar source of the 2022 February 3 geomagnetic storm of moderate strength that contributed to the loss of 39 Starlink satellites. The geomagnetic storm was caused by the 2022 January 29 halo coronal mass ejection (CME) that was of moderate speed (about 690 km/s) originating from NOAA active region 12936 located in the northeast quadrant (N18E06) of the Sun. The eruption was marked by an M1.1 flare, which started at 22:45 UT, peaked at 23:32 UT on January 29 and ended at 00:24 UT the next day. The CME ended up as a shock-driving magnetic cloud (MC) observed at Sun-Earth L1 and…
A Multi-Diagnostic Observational Framework for Magnetosonic Solitary Waves During Geomagnetic Storms in Solar Cycles 24 and 25 using Cluster II Mission
University of Science and Technology Meghalaya（梅加拉亚邦科技大学）；Indian Institute of Technology, Mandi（印度技术学院曼迪分校）
As an important source for large geomagnetic storms, an "ICME-in-sheath" is a completely shocked interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) stuck in the sheath between a shock and host ejecta. Typical characteristics are identified from coordinated multi-sets of observations: (1) it is usually short in duration and lasts a few hours at 1 AU; (2) its solar wind parameters, in particular the magnetic field, seem to keep enhanced for a large range of distances; and (3) common ICME signatures are often lost. The host ejecta could be a single ICME or a complex ejecta, being fast enough to drive a …
After a prolong and deep solar minimum at the end of solar cycle 23, the current cycle 24 is one of the lowest cycles. The two periods of deep minimum and mini-maximum of the cycle 24 are connected by a period of increasing solar activity. In this work, the Forbush decreases of cosmic ray intensity during the period from January 2008 to December 2014 are studied. A statistical analysis of 749 events using the IZMIRAN database of Forbush effects obtained by processing the data of the worldwide neutron monitor network using the global survey method is performed. A further study of the events tha…
Solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are main drivers of the most powerful non-recurrent geomagnetic storms. In the extreme-ultraviolet range, CMEs are accompanied by bright post-eruption arcades and dark dimmings. The analysis of events of the Solar Cycle 23 (Chertok et al., 2013, Solar Phys. 282, 175) revealed that the summarized unsigned magnetic flux in the arcades and dimming regions at the photospheric level, $Φ$, is significantly related to the intensity (Dst index) of geomagnetic storms. This provides the basis for the earliest diagnosis of geoefficiency of solar eruptions. In the prese…
Geomagnetic storms are an important aspect of space weather and can result in significant impacts on space- and ground-based assets. The majority of strong storms are associated with the passage of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) in the near-Earth environment. In many cases, these ICMEs can be traced back unambiguously to a specific coronal mass ejection (CME) and solar activity on the frontside of the Sun. Hence, predicting the arrival of ICMEs at Earth from routine observations of CMEs and solar activity currently makes a major contribution to the forecasting of geomagnetic sto…
An unexpected strong geomagnetic storm occurred on 2018 August 26, which was caused by a slow coronal mass ejection (CME) from a gradual eruption of a large quiet-region filament. We investigate the eruption and propagation characteristics of this CME in relation to the strong geomagnetic storm with remote sensing and in situ observations. Coronal magnetic fields around the filament are extrapolated and compared with EUV observations. We determine the propagation direction and tilt angle of the CME flux rope near the Sun using a graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) model and the Sun-to-Earth kine…
The Athens Neutron Monitor Data Processing (ANMODAP) Center recorded an unusual Forbush decrease with a sharp enhancement of cosmic ray intensity right after the main phase of the Forbush decrease on 16 July 2005, followed by a second decrease within less than 12 h. This exceptional event is neither a ground level enhancement nor a geomagnetic effect in cosmic rays. It rather appears as the effect of a special structure of interplanetary disturbances originating from a group of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the 13-14 July 2005 period. The initiation of the CMEs was accompanied by type IV ra…
Solar cycle 23 witnessed the observation of hundreds of halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs), thanks to the high dynamic range and extended field of view of the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission. More than two thirds of halo CMEs originating on the front side of the Sun have been found to be geoeffective (Dst =< -50 nT). The delay time between the onset of halo CMEs and the peak of ensuing geomagnetic storms has been found to depend on the solar source location (Gopalswamy et al., 2007). In particular, limb halo CMEs …
This investigation is directed to understand the asymmetry in $Δ$X variations caused due to the relative roles played by IMF Bz and IMF By in a particular interval (22:22 - 22:55 UT), during the main phase of a strong geomagnetic storm event of April 06, 2000 (Ap = 236). Two pairs of antipodal stations, being part of the SuperMAG network, are considered here. Ionospheric convection maps from SuperDARN network are used to understand spatio-temporal evolution of the DP2 ionospheric convection patterns over high-latitudes. The two-dimensional maps of equivalent currents are used to show signature…
We study the solar sources of an intense geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 23 that occurred on 20 November 2003, based on ground- and space-based multiwavelength observations. The coronal mass ejections (CMEs) responsible for the above geomagnetic storm originated from the super-active region NOAA 10501. We investigate the H-alpha observations of the flare events made with a 15 cm solar tower telescope at ARIES, Nainital, India. The propagation characteristics of the CMEs have been derived from the three-dimensional images of the solar wind (i.e., density and speed) obtained from the interplane…
The sun occasionally undergoes the so-called grand minima, in which its magnetic activity, measured by the number of sunspots, is suppressed for decades. The most prominent grand minima, since the beginning of telescopic observations of sunspots, is the Maunder minimum (1645-1715), when the sunspots became rather scarce. The mechanism underlying the grand minima remains poorly understood as there is little observational information of the solar magnetic field at that time. In this study, we examine the records of one candidate aurora display in China and Japan during the Maunder minimum. The p…
The study of historical great geomagnetic storms is crucial for assessing the possible risks to the technological infrastructure of a modern society, caused by extreme space-weather events. The normal benchmark has been the great geomagnetic storm of September 1859, the so-called "Carrington Event". However, there are numerous records of another great geomagnetic storm in February 1872. This storm, about 12 years after the Carrington Event, resulted in comparable magnetic disturbances and auroral displays over large areas of the Earth. We have revisited this great geomagnetic storm in terms of…
On 2012 September 30 - October 1 the Earth underwent a two-step geomagnetic storm. We examine the Sun-to-Earth characteristics of the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) responsible for the geomagnetic storm with combined heliospheric imaging and in situ observations. The first CME, which occurred on 2012 September 25, is a slow event and shows an acceleration followed by a nearly invariant speed in the whole Sun-Earth space. The second event, launched from the Sun on 2012 September 27, exhibits a quick acceleration, then a rapid deceleration and finally a nearly constant speed, a typical Sun-to-Ear…
The abrupt aperiodic modulation of cosmic ray (CR) flux intensity, often referred to as Forbush decrease (FD), plays a significant role in our understanding of the Sun-Earth electrodynamics. Accurate and precise determination of FD magnitude and timing are among the intractable problems in FD-based analysis. FD identification is complicated by CR diurnal anisotropy. CR anisotropy can increase or reduce the number and amplitude of FDs. It is therefore important to remove its contributions from CR raw data before FD identification. Recently, an attempt was made, using a combination of Fourier tr…
We report on the solar and interplanetary (IP) causes of the third largest geomagnetic storm (2018 August 26) in solar cycle 24. The underlying coronal mass ejection (CME) originating from a quiescent filament region becomes a 440 km/s magnetic cloud (MC) at 1 au after ~5 days. The prolonged CME acceleration (for about 24 hrs) coincides with the time profiles of the post-eruption arcade intensity and reconnected flux. Chen et al. (2019) obtain lower speed since they assumed that the CME does not accelerate after about 12 hrs. The presence of multiple coronal holes near the filament channel and…
Influence of ICME-driven Magnetic Cloud-like and Sheath Region induced Geomagnetic Storms in causing anomalous responses of the Low-latitude Ionosphere: A Case Study
Cosmic Ray Inter-Station Correlation Variations as Precursors of Geomagnetic Storms: A Statistical Study and Multi-Parameter Early Warning Framework
College of Physics and Optoelectronic Engineering, Ocean University of China（中国海洋大学物理与光电工程学院）；Engineering Research Center of Advanced Marine Physical Instruments and Equipment of Ministry of Education（教育部先进海洋物理仪器装备工程研究中心）；Qingdao Key Laboratory of Advanced Optoelectronics（青岛先进光电学重点实验室）
Extreme space weather events including $\ge$X5.0 flares, ground level enhancement (GLE) events and super geomagnetic storms (Dst $\le$ -250 nT) caused by super active regions (SARs) during solar cycles 21-24 were studied. The total number of $\ge$X5.0 solar flares was 62, 41 of them were X5.0-X9.9 flares and 21 of them were $\ge$X10.0 flares. We found that 83.9\% of the $\ge$X5.0 flares were produced by SARs. 78.05\% of the X5.0-X9.9 and 95.24\% of the $\ge$X10.0 solar flares were produced by SARs. 46 GLEs registered during solar cycles 21-24, and 25 GLEs were caused by SARs, indicating that 5…
In the early days of 2017 September, an exceptionally energetic solar active region AR12673 aroused great interest in the solar physics community. It produced four X class flares, more than 20 CMEs and an intense geomagnetic storm, for which the peak value of the Dst index reached up to -142nT at 2017 September 8 02:00 UT. In this work, we check the interplanetary and solar source of this intense geomagnetic storm. We find that this geomagnetic storm was mainly caused by a shock-ICME complex structure, which was formed by a shock driven by the 2017 September 6 CME propagating into a previous I…
More than 140 isolated non-recurrent geomagnetic storms (GMSs) of various intensities from extreme to weak are considered, which are reliably identified with solar eruptive sources (coronal mass ejections, CMEs). The analysis aims to obtain a possibly complete picture of the relationship between the transit time of propagation of CMEs and interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) from the Sun to the Earth (more precisely, the time interval dtp from the moment of an eruption until the peak of the corresponding GMS) and the maximum intensity of this GMS, as measured by the disturbance storm …
This paper presents the storm time comparative analysis of the performances of latest versions of global ionospheric models: International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) 2016, NeQuick 2 (NeQ) and the IRI extended to Plasmasphere (IRI-P) 2017 with respect to Navigation with Indian Constellation (NavIC) and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) derived ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC). The analysis is carried out under varying geomagnetic storm conditions during September 2017-November 2018, falling in the declining phase of solar cycle 24. TEC data from Indore, located near the northern…
While low latitude auroral displays are normally considered to be a manifestation of magnetic storms of considerable size, Silverman (2003, JGR, 108, A4) reported numerous "sporadic auroras" which appear locally at relatively low magnetic latitudes during times of just moderate magnetic activity. Here, a case study is presented of an aurora near the geomagnetic equator based on a report from the Philippine Islands on 27 October 1856. An analysis of this report shows it to be consistent with the known cases of sporadic aurorae except for its considerably low magnetic latitude. The record also s…
