A geomagnetic storm is the result of sustained interaction between solar wind with a southward magnetic field and the magnetosphere. To investigate the influence of various solar wind parameters on the intensity of major geomagnetic storm, 67 major geomagnetic storms that occurred between 1998 and 2006 were used to calculate the correlation coefficients (CCs) between the intensities of major geomagnetic storms and the time integrals of southward interplanetary magnetic field $B_s$, solar wind electric field ($E_y$) and injection function (Q) during the main phase of the associated geomagnetic storms. SYM-H$_{min}$ was used to indicate the intensity of the associated major geomagnetic storm, while I($B_z$), I($E_y$) and I(Q) were used to indicate the time integrals of $B_z$, $E_y$ and Q during the main phase of associated major geomagnetic storm respectively. The derived CC between I($B_z$) and SYM-H$_{min}$ is 0.33, while the CC between I($E_y$) and SYM-H$_{min}$ is 0.57 and the CC between I(Q) and SYM-H$_{min}$ is 0.86. The results provide statistical evidence that solar wind dynamic pressure or solar wind density plays a significant role in transferring solar wind energy into the magnetosphere, in addition to the southward magnetic field and solar wind speed. Solar wind that has a strong geoeffectiveness requires solar wind dynamic pressure $>$3 nPa or solar wind density $>3$ nPa$/V_{sw}^2$. Large and long duration $B_s$ alone cannot ensure a major geomagnetic storm, especially if the solar wind dynamic pressure is very low, as large and long duration Bs is not a full condition, only a necessary condition to trigger a major geomagnetic storm.
Geomagnetically Induced Currents in the Irish Power Network during Geomagnetic Storms
地磁感应电流是地球空间天气的一种常见危害。它们发生在电力传输网络中，已知在高纬度和中纬度国家都有不利影响。在这里，我们研究了五次地磁风暴（2016年3月6日至7日、2015年12月20日至21日、2015年3月17日至18日、2003年10月29日至31日和1989年3月13日至14日）期间爱尔兰输电网络（地磁纬度54.7--58.5 $^{\circ}$ N）中的GIC。本文采用平面波法模拟了大地电场，并建立了大地电磁模型。然后计算了220、275和400 kV输电网络的GIC。在所研究的最大风暴期间，用我们的MT模式计算的峰值电场高达3.8 V km \textsuperscript{-1}，伴随的GIC高达23 A。用均匀电阻率模型计算，其峰值分别为1.46 V km \textsuperscript{-1}和25.8 A.我们发现，三个400和275千伏变电站是最有可能的位置，爱尔兰Transformers经历大GIC。
An X1.7 flare at 10:15 UT and a halo CME with a projected speed of 942 km/s erupted from NOAA solar active region 9393 located at N20W19, were observed on 2001 March 29. When the CME reached the Earth, it triggered a super geomagnetic storm (hereafter super storm). We find that the CME always moved towards the Earth according to the intensity-time profiles of protons with different energies. The solar wind parameters responsible for the main phase of the super storm occurred on March 31, 2001 is analyzed taking into account the delayed geomagnetic effect of solar wind at the L1 point and using…
This work presents, for the first time, the analysis of the occurrence of ionospheric irregularities during geomagnetic storms at Tucumán-Argentina, a low latitude station in the Southern American longitudinal sector ( 26.9 ° S, 294.6 ° E; magnetic latitude 15.5 ° S), near the southern crest of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). Three geomagnetic storms occurred on May 27, 2017 (a month of low occurrence rates of spread-F), October 12, 2016 (a month of transition from low to high occurrence rates of spread-F) and November 7, 2017 (a month of high occurrence rates of spread-F) are analyze…
Coronal holes (CHs) are the source of high-speed streams (HSSs) in the solar wind, whose interaction with the slow solar wind creates corotating interaction regions (CIRs) in the heliosphere. Whenever the CIRs hit the Earth, they can cause geomagnetic storms. We develop a method to predict the strength of CIR/HSS-driven geomagnetic storms directly from solar observations using the CH areas and associated magnetic field polarity. First, we build a dataset comprising the properties of CHs on the Sun, the associated HSSs, CIRs, and orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at L1, and…
We use $Δ$SYM-H to capture the variation in the SYM-H index during the main phase of a geomagnetic storm. We define great geomagnetic storms as those with $Δ$SYM-H $\le$ -200 nT. After analyzing the data that were not obscured by solar winds, we determined that 11 such storms occurred during solar cycle 23. We calculated time integrals for the southward interplanetary magnetic field component I(B$_s$), the solar wind electric field I(E$_y$), and a combination of E$_y$ and the solar wind dynamic pressure I(Q) during the main phase of a great geomagnetic storm. The strength of the correlation co…
The Carrington storm in 1859 September has been arguably identified as the greatest geomagnetic storm ever recorded. However, its exact magnitude and chronology remain controversial, while their source data have been derived from the Colaba H magnetometer. Here, we have located the Colaba 1859 yearbook, containing hourly measurements and spot measurements. We have reconstructed the Colaba geomagnetic disturbances in the horizontal component (ΔH), the eastward component (ΔY), and the vertical component (ΔZ) around the time of the Carrington storm. On their basis, we have chronologically revised…
We input solar wind parameters responsible for the main phases of 15 great geomagnetic storms (GGSs: $Δ$SYM-H$\le-$200 nT) into the empirical formulae created by \cite{Burton1975}(hereafter Burton equation), and by \cite{OBrien2000}(hereafter OM equation) to evaluate whether \textbf{two equations} can correctly estimate the intensities of GGSs. The results show that the intensities of most GGSs estimated by OM equation are much smaller than the observed intensities. The RMS error between the intensities estimated by OM equation and the observed intensities is \textbf{203} nT, implying that the…
We present a new model for the probability that the Disturbance storm time (Dst) index exceeds -100 nT, with a lead time between 1 and 3 days. $Dst$ provides essential information about the strength of the ring current around the Earth caused by the protons and electrons from the solar wind, and it is routinely used as a proxy for geomagnetic storms. The model is developed using an ensemble of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) that are trained using SoHO images (MDI, EIT and LASCO). The relationship between the SoHO images and the solar wind has been investigated by many researchers, but th…
The effect of the main phase of two intense geomagnetic storm events which occurred on August 5 - 6 and September 26 - 27, 2011 on the equatorial ionosphere have been investigated using Global Positioning System (GPS) data obtained from an Ile-Ife station (geomagnetic lat. \ang{9.84}N, long. 77.25 degree E, Dip \ang{7.25}N). Total Electron Content (TEC) profiles during the main phase of the two geomagnetically disturbed days were compared with quiet time average profiles to examine the response of the equatorial ionosphere. The results showed that the intensity of both storm events during the …
We report on the solar source of the 2022 February 3 geomagnetic storm of moderate strength that contributed to the loss of 39 Starlink satellites. The geomagnetic storm was caused by the 2022 January 29 halo coronal mass ejection (CME) that was of moderate speed (about 690 km/s) originating from NOAA active region 12936 located in the northeast quadrant (N18E06) of the Sun. The eruption was marked by an M1.1 flare, which started at 22:45 UT, peaked at 23:32 UT on January 29 and ended at 00:24 UT the next day. The CME ended up as a shock-driving magnetic cloud (MC) observed at Sun-Earth L1 and…
We present the results of a response of global seismicity to St. Patrick's Day (March 17) geomagnetic storms in 2013 and 2015, which occurred during rather similar solar flux levels and nearly identical storm sudden commencement times. A similar pattern of most substantial earthquake occurrence after storms is revealed. Namely, with a time delay of ~30 and ~39 days after storm onsets in 2013 and 2015, respectively, the strong crust earthquakes occurred at continental areas in Iran (M7.7, April 16, 2013) and Nepal (M7.8, April 25, 2015). Then, with a time delay of ~68 and ~74 days after storm o…
Geomagnetic activity is often described using summary indices to summarize the likelihood of space weather impacts, as well as when parameterizing space weather models. The geomagnetic index $\text{K}_\text{p}$ in particular, is widely used for these purposes. Current state-of-the-art forecast models provide deterministic $\text{K}_\text{p}$ predictions using a variety of methods -- including empirically-derived functions, physics-based models, and neural networks -- but do not provide uncertainty estimates associated with the forecast. This paper provides a sample methodology to generate a 3-…
Comment on "A statistical comparison of solar wind sources of moderate and intense geomagnetic storms at solar minimum and maximum" by Zhang, J.-C., M. W. Liemohn, J. U. Kozyra, M. F. Thomsen, H. A. Elliott, and J. M. Weygand, JGR, 2006
This paper presents the response of the ionosphere during the intense geomagnetic storms of October 12-20, 2016 and May 26-31, 2017 which occurred during the declining phase of the solar cycle 24. Total Electron Content (TEC) from GPS measured at Indore, Calcutta and Siliguri having geomagnetic dips varying from 32.23°N, 32°N and 39.49°N respectively and at the International GNSS Service (IGS) stations at Lucknow (beyond anomaly crest), Hyderabad (between geomagnetic equator and northern crest of EIA) and Bangalore (near magnetic equator) in the Indian longitude zone have been used for the sto…
The Forbush decrease (FD) and Geomagnetic storm (GS) are the two distinct space weather events having common causing agents like interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) or corotating interacting region (CIR). Generally, an ICME causes high amplitude FDs and extreme GSs. However, the interlinks between extreme GS and strong FDs are poorly studied. Here, we demonstrate five ICME induced extreme storms and their effects on respective FD profiles. We observed the sudden storm commencement of the GS coincides with the FD onset. Interestingly, we also noted a gradual increase in neutron counts d…
Given the infrequency of extreme geomagnetic storms, it is significant to note the concentration of three extreme geomagnetic storms in 1941, whose intensities ranked fourth, twelfth, and fifth within the aa index between 1868-2010. Among them, the geomagnetic storm on 1 March 1941 was so intense that three of the four Dst station magnetograms went off scale. Herein, we reconstruct its time series and measure the storm intensity with an alternative Dst estimate (Dst*). The source solar eruption at 09:29 - 09:38 GMT on 28 February was located at RGO AR 13814 and its significant intensity is con…
The paper presents an assessment of the performances of the global empirical models: International Reference Ionosphere (IRI)-2016 and the NeQuick2 model derived ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) with respect to the Navigation with Indian Constellation (NavIC)/ Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System(IRNSS) estimated TEC under geomagnetic storm conditions. The present study is carried out over Indore (Geographic: 22.52$^{\circ}$N 75.92$^{\circ}$E and Magnetic Dip: 32.23$^{\circ}$N, located close to the northern crest of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) region of the Indian se…
This paper presents the equatorial ionospheric response to eleven strong-to-severe geomagnetic storms that occurred during the period 2000-2005, the declining phase of the solar cycle 23. The analysis has been performed using the global ion density plots of Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP). Observations show that for about 91% of the cases, post-sunset equatorial irregularities occurred within 3h from the time of northward to southward transition of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) clock angle, thus bringing out the importance of the role played by IMF By in the process o…
Midlatitude ionospheric F2-layer response to eruptive solar events-caused geomagnetic disturbances over Hungary during the maximum of the solar cycle 24: a case study
We report observations of energetic electron flux and Phase Space Density (PSD) to show that a relatively weak magnetic storm with $Sym-H_{min} \approx -50 $nT, resulted in a relativistic and ultra--relativistic electron enhancement of two orders of magnitude similar to the St. Patrick's event of 2015, an extreme storm with $Sym-H_{min} \approx -235 nT$. This enhancement appeared at energies up to $\approx 10$ MeV, lasted for at least 24 days and was not recorded in geosynchronous orbit where most space weather alert data are collected. By combined analysis of PSD radial profiles and Fokker--P…
As an important source for large geomagnetic storms, an "ICME-in-sheath" is a completely shocked interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) stuck in the sheath between a shock and host ejecta. Typical characteristics are identified from coordinated multi-sets of observations: (1) it is usually short in duration and lasts a few hours at 1 AU; (2) its solar wind parameters, in particular the magnetic field, seem to keep enhanced for a large range of distances; and (3) common ICME signatures are often lost. The host ejecta could be a single ICME or a complex ejecta, being fast enough to drive a …
