Content. Solar flares are often used as precursors of geomagnetic storms. In particular, Howard and Tappin (2005) recently published in A&A a dependence between X-ray class of solar flares and Ap and Dst indexes of geomagnetic storms which contradicts to early published results.
Aims. We compare published results on flare-storm dependences and discuss possible sources of the discrepancy.
Methods. We analyze following sources of difference: (1) different intervals of observations, (2) different statistics and (3) different methods of event identification and comparison.
Results. Our analysis shows that magnitude of geomagnetic storms is likely to be independent on X-ray class of solar flares.
Forecasting geomagnetic storms is highly important for many space weather applications. In this study we review performance of the geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus during 2011--2016. The service was implemented in 2011 at SpaceWeather.Ru and predicts the expected strength of geomagnetic storms as measured by $Dst$ index several hours ahead. The forecast is based on L1 solar wind and IMF measurements and is updated every hour. The solar maximum of cycle 24 is weak, so most of the statistics are on rather moderate storms. We verify quality of selection criteria, as well as reliab…
The comparison of specific interplanetary conditions for 798 magnetic storms with Dst < -50 nT for the period 1976-2000 was made on the basis of the OMNI archive data.We categorized various large-scale types of solar wind as interplanetary drivers of storms: corotating interaction region (CIR), Sheath, interplanetary CME (ICME) including magnetic cloud (MC) and Ejecta, separately MC and Ejecta, and "Indeterminate" type. The data processing was carried out by the method of double superposed epoch analysis which uses two reference times (onset of storm and the minimum Dst index) and make a re-sc…
Turbulence properties and kinetic signatures of electron in Kelvin-Helmholtz waves during a geomagnetic storm
University of Maryland College Park（马里兰大学帕克分校）；NASA Goddard Space Flight Center（美国宇航局戈达德太空飞行中心）；University of New Hampshire（新罕布什尔大学）；Dartmouth College（达特茅斯学院）；University of Maryland Baltimore（马里兰大学巴尔的摩分校）
We use $Δ$SYM-H to capture the variation in the SYM-H index during the main phase of a geomagnetic storm. We define great geomagnetic storms as those with $Δ$SYM-H $\le$ -200 nT. After analyzing the data that were not obscured by solar winds, we determined that 11 such storms occurred during solar cycle 23. We calculated time integrals for the southward interplanetary magnetic field component I(B$_s$), the solar wind electric field I(E$_y$), and a combination of E$_y$ and the solar wind dynamic pressure I(Q) during the main phase of a great geomagnetic storm. The strength of the correlation co…
The largest geomagnetic storms of solar cycle 24 so far occurred on 2015 March 17 and June 22 with $D_{\rm st}$ minima of $-223$ and $-195$ nT, respectively. Both of the geomagnetic storms show a multi-step development. We examine the plasma and magnetic field characteristics of the driving coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in connection with the development of the geomagnetic storms. A particular effort is to reconstruct the in situ structure using a Grad-Shafranov technique and compare the reconstruction results with solar observations, which gives a larger spatial perspective of the source cond…
The energy transfer during the interaction of large-scale solar wind structure and the Earth's magnetosphere is the chronic issue in space-weather studies. To understand this, researchers widely studied the geomagnetic storms and sub-storms phenomena. The present understanding suggests that long duration of southward interplanetary magnetic field component is the most important parameter for the geomagnetic storm. Such long duration strong southward magnetic field is often associated with ICMEs, torsional Alfven fluctuations superposed co-rotating interacting regions (CIRs) and fast solar wind…
A geomagnetic storm is the result of sustained interaction between solar wind with a southward magnetic field and the magnetosphere. To investigate the influence of various solar wind parameters on the intensity of major geomagnetic storm, 67 major geomagnetic storms that occurred between 1998 and 2006 were used to calculate the correlation coefficients (CCs) between the intensities of major geomagnetic storms and the time integrals of southward interplanetary magnetic field $B_s$, solar wind electric field ($E_y$) and injection function (Q) during the main phase of the associated geomagnetic …
We have performed an analysis of case events and statistics of positive ionospheric storms in the dayside region of the equatorial ionization anomaly during recurrent geomagnetic storms (RGSs), which dominate in geomagnetic and ionospheric conditions on the declining phase of solar activity in 2004 to 2008. It is shown that total electron content (TEC) has a tendency to minimize before the beginning of RGSs and to peak 3 to 4 days after, i.e. on the RGS recovery phase produced by high-intensity long-duration continuous auroral activity. The maximum of TEC coincides with the maximum of solar wi…
Low-energy ions of ionospheric origin constitute a significant contributor to the magnetospheric plasma population. Measuring cold ions is difficult though. Observations have to be done at sufficiently high altitudes and typically in regions of space where spacecraft attain a positive charge due to solar illumination. Cold ions are therefore shielded from the satellite particle detectors. Furthermore, spacecraft can only cover key regions of ion outflow during segments of their orbit, so additional complications arise if continuous longtime observations, such as during a geomagnetic storm, are…
In this study, we investigate thermospheric neutral mass density heating associated with 168 CME-driven geomagnetic storms in the period of May 2001 to September 2011. We use neutral density measured by two low-Earth orbit satellites: CHAMP and GRACE. For each storm, we superpose geomagnetic and density data for the time when the IMF B$_\mathrm{z}$ component turns sharply southward chosen as the zero epoch time. This indicates the storm main phase onset. We find that the average SYM-H index reaches the minimum of $-$42 nT near 12 hours after storm main phase onset. The Joule heating is enhance…
Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has proven to be very successful in forecasting variety of irregular magnetospheric/ionospheric processes like geomagnetic storms and substorms. SYMH and ASYH indices represent longitudinal symmetric and asymmetric component of the ring current. Here, an attempt is made to develop a prediction model for these indices using ANN. The ring current state depends on its past conditions therefore, it is necessary to consider its history for prediction. To account this effect Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with eXogenous inputs (NARX) is implemented. This network con…
Magnetospheric ultra-low frequency (ULF) waves contribute to space weather in the solar wind - magnetosphere - ionosphere system. The monitoring of these waves by space- and ground-based instruments, however, produces "big data" which is difficult to navigate, mine and analyse effectively. We present sonification, the process of converting an oscillatory time-series into audible sound, and citizen science, where members of the public contribute to scientific investigations, as a means to potentially help tackle these issues. Magnetometer data in the ULF range at geostationary orbit has been so…
The effect of the main phase of two intense geomagnetic storm events which occurred on August 5 - 6 and September 26 - 27, 2011 on the equatorial ionosphere have been investigated using Global Positioning System (GPS) data obtained from an Ile-Ife station (geomagnetic lat. \ang{9.84}N, long. 77.25 degree E, Dip \ang{7.25}N). Total Electron Content (TEC) profiles during the main phase of the two geomagnetically disturbed days were compared with quiet time average profiles to examine the response of the equatorial ionosphere. The results showed that the intensity of both storm events during the …
We present the results of a response of global seismicity to St. Patrick's Day (March 17) geomagnetic storms in 2013 and 2015, which occurred during rather similar solar flux levels and nearly identical storm sudden commencement times. A similar pattern of most substantial earthquake occurrence after storms is revealed. Namely, with a time delay of ~30 and ~39 days after storm onsets in 2013 and 2015, respectively, the strong crust earthquakes occurred at continental areas in Iran (M7.7, April 16, 2013) and Nepal (M7.8, April 25, 2015). Then, with a time delay of ~68 and ~74 days after storm o…
Geomagnetic activity is often described using summary indices to summarize the likelihood of space weather impacts, as well as when parameterizing space weather models. The geomagnetic index $\text{K}_\text{p}$ in particular, is widely used for these purposes. Current state-of-the-art forecast models provide deterministic $\text{K}_\text{p}$ predictions using a variety of methods -- including empirically-derived functions, physics-based models, and neural networks -- but do not provide uncertainty estimates associated with the forecast. This paper provides a sample methodology to generate a 3-…
Plasma pressure distribution in the inner magnetosphere is one of the key parameters for understanding the main magnetospheric processes including geomagnetic storms and substorms. However, the pressure profiles obtained from in-situ particle measurements by the high-altitude satellites do not allow tracking the pressure variations related to the storms and substorms, because a time interval needed to do this generally exceeds the characteristic times of them. On contrary, fast movement of low-altitude satellites makes it possible to retrieve quasi-instantaneous profiles of plasma pressure alo…
Conditions in the solar wind resulting in magnetic storms on the Earth are a subject of long and intensive investigations. Recently Zhang et al. (2006), published a paper, where they used superposed epoch analyses method to study solar wind features during 549 geomagnetic storms. Unfortunately, the used methodical approach has not allowed to improve essentially understanding of relation of magnetic storms with conditions in the solar wind, and first of all for the following reasons: (1) they did not take into account of existance of storms generated by different types of solar wind, and (2) th…
This paper presents the response of the ionosphere during the intense geomagnetic storms of October 12-20, 2016 and May 26-31, 2017 which occurred during the declining phase of the solar cycle 24. Total Electron Content (TEC) from GPS measured at Indore, Calcutta and Siliguri having geomagnetic dips varying from 32.23°N, 32°N and 39.49°N respectively and at the International GNSS Service (IGS) stations at Lucknow (beyond anomaly crest), Hyderabad (between geomagnetic equator and northern crest of EIA) and Bangalore (near magnetic equator) in the Indian longitude zone have been used for the sto…
The Forbush decrease (FD) and Geomagnetic storm (GS) are the two distinct space weather events having common causing agents like interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) or corotating interacting region (CIR). Generally, an ICME causes high amplitude FDs and extreme GSs. However, the interlinks between extreme GS and strong FDs are poorly studied. Here, we demonstrate five ICME induced extreme storms and their effects on respective FD profiles. We observed the sudden storm commencement of the GS coincides with the FD onset. Interestingly, we also noted a gradual increase in neutron counts d…
Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) are a well-known terrestrial space weather hazard. They occur in power transmission networks and are known to have adverse effects in both high and mid-latitude countries. Here, we study GICs in the Irish power transmission network (geomagnetic latitude 54.7--58.5$^{\circ}$ N) during five geomagnetic storms (06-07 March 2016, 20-21 December 2015, 17-18 March 2015, 29-31 October 2003 and 13-14 March 1989). We simulate electric fields using a plane wave method together with two ground resistivity models, one of which is derived from magnetotelluric measure…
An X1.7 flare at 10:15 UT and a halo CME with a projected speed of 942 km/s erupted from NOAA solar active region 9393 located at N20W19, were observed on 2001 March 29. When the CME reached the Earth, it triggered a super geomagnetic storm (hereafter super storm). We find that the CME always moved towards the Earth according to the intensity-time profiles of protons with different energies. The solar wind parameters responsible for the main phase of the super storm occurred on March 31, 2001 is analyzed taking into account the delayed geomagnetic effect of solar wind at the L1 point and using…
The paper presents an assessment of the performances of the global empirical models: International Reference Ionosphere (IRI)-2016 and the NeQuick2 model derived ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) with respect to the Navigation with Indian Constellation (NavIC)/ Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System(IRNSS) estimated TEC under geomagnetic storm conditions. The present study is carried out over Indore (Geographic: 22.52$^{\circ}$N 75.92$^{\circ}$E and Magnetic Dip: 32.23$^{\circ}$N, located close to the northern crest of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) region of the Indian se…
In September 1859 the Colaba observatory measured the most extreme geomagnetic disturbance ever recorded at low latitudes related to solar activity: the Carrington storm. This paper describes a geomagnetic disturbance case with a profile extraordinarily similar to the disturbance of the Carrington event at Colaba: the event on 29 October 2003 at Tihany magnetic observatory in Hungary. The analysis of the H-field at different locations during the "Carrington-like" event leads to a re-interpretation of the 1859 event. The major conclusions of the paper are the following: (a) the global Dst or SY…
This paper presents the equatorial ionospheric response to eleven strong-to-severe geomagnetic storms that occurred during the period 2000-2005, the declining phase of the solar cycle 23. The analysis has been performed using the global ion density plots of Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP). Observations show that for about 91% of the cases, post-sunset equatorial irregularities occurred within 3h from the time of northward to southward transition of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) clock angle, thus bringing out the importance of the role played by IMF By in the process o…
Coronal holes (CHs) are the source of high-speed streams (HSSs) in the solar wind, whose interaction with the slow solar wind creates corotating interaction regions (CIRs) in the heliosphere. Whenever the CIRs hit the Earth, they can cause geomagnetic storms. We develop a method to predict the strength of CIR/HSS-driven geomagnetic storms directly from solar observations using the CH areas and associated magnetic field polarity. First, we build a dataset comprising the properties of CHs on the Sun, the associated HSSs, CIRs, and orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at L1, and…
In our study we analyze and compare the response and behavior of the ionospheric F2 and of the sporadic E-layer during three strong (i.e., Dst <-100nT) individual geomagnetic storms from years 2012, 2013 and 2015, winter time period. The data was provided by the state-of the art digital ionosonde of the Széchenyi István Geophysical Observatory located at midlatitude, Nagycenk, Hungary (IAGA code: NCK, geomagnetic lat.: 46,17° geomagnetic long.: 98,85°). The local time of the sudden commencement (SC) was used to characterize the type of the ionospheric storm (after Mendillo and Narvaez, 2010). …
The Carrington storm in 1859 September has been arguably identified as the greatest geomagnetic storm ever recorded. However, its exact magnitude and chronology remain controversial, while their source data have been derived from the Colaba H magnetometer. Here, we have located the Colaba 1859 yearbook, containing hourly measurements and spot measurements. We have reconstructed the Colaba geomagnetic disturbances in the horizontal component (ΔH), the eastward component (ΔY), and the vertical component (ΔZ) around the time of the Carrington storm. On their basis, we have chronologically revised…
We report observations of energetic electron flux and Phase Space Density (PSD) to show that a relatively weak magnetic storm with $Sym-H_{min} \approx -50 $nT, resulted in a relativistic and ultra--relativistic electron enhancement of two orders of magnitude similar to the St. Patrick's event of 2015, an extreme storm with $Sym-H_{min} \approx -235 nT$. This enhancement appeared at energies up to $\approx 10$ MeV, lasted for at least 24 days and was not recorded in geosynchronous orbit where most space weather alert data are collected. By combined analysis of PSD radial profiles and Fokker--P…
Total Electron Content (TEC) and electron density are the basic parameters, which determine the major properties of the Ionosphere. Detail study of the ionospheric TEC and electron density variations has been carried out during geomagnetic storms, with longitude and latitude, for four different locations: (24°W-14°W, 25°S-10°S); (53°W- 46°W, 04°N-14°N); (161°E-165°E, 42°S-34°S), and (135°W- 120°W, 39°S-35°S) using the COSMIC satellite data. In order to find the background conditions of the ionosphere, the solar wind parameters such as north-south component of inter planetary magnetic field (Bz…
As an important source for large geomagnetic storms, an "ICME-in-sheath" is a completely shocked interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) stuck in the sheath between a shock and host ejecta. Typical characteristics are identified from coordinated multi-sets of observations: (1) it is usually short in duration and lasts a few hours at 1 AU; (2) its solar wind parameters, in particular the magnetic field, seem to keep enhanced for a large range of distances; and (3) common ICME signatures are often lost. The host ejecta could be a single ICME or a complex ejecta, being fast enough to drive a …
The ionosphere has been normally detected by traditional instruments, such as ionosonde, scatter radars, topside sounders onboard satellites and in situ rocket. However, most instruments are expensive and also restricted to either the bottomside ionosphere or the lower part of the topside ionosphere (usually lower than 800 km), such as ground based radar measurements. Nowadays, GPS satellites in high altitude orbits (~20,200 km) are capable of providing details on the structure of the entire ionosphere, even the plasmasphere. In this paper, a Regional Ionospheric Mapping and Tomography (RIMT) …
The recovery phase of the largest storms ever recorded has been studied. These events provide an extraordinary opportunity for two goals: (1) to validate the hyperbolic model by Aguado et al. [2010] for the recovery phase after disturbances as severe as the Carrington event, or that related to the Hydro-Quebec blackout in March 1989, and (2) to check whether the linear relationship between the recovery time and the intensity of the storm still complies. Our results reveal the high accuracy of the hyperbolic decay function to reproduce the recovery phase of the magnetosphere after an extreme st…
Geomagnetic activity in each phase of the solar cycle consists of 3 parts: (1) a floor below which the geomagnetic activity cannot fall even in the absence of sunspots, related to moderate graduate commencement storms; (2) sunspot-related activity due to sudden commencement storms caused by coronal mass ejections; (3) graduate commencement storms due to high speed solar wind from solar coronal holes. We find that the changes in the floor depend on the global magnetic moment of the Sun, and on the other side, from the height of the floor we can judge about the amplitude of the sunspot cycle.
Multi-instrument constraints on a hemispherically asymmetric positive ionospheric storm in the 60-180 deg E sector during the 12-13 November 2025 geomagnetic storm
Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration（中国地震局地震预测研究所）；National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院国家空间科学中心）；Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University（香港理工大学土地测量及地理资讯学系）；Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia（意大利国家地球物理与火山学研究所）；Space Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences（俄罗斯科学院太空研究所）
The total ionospheric content (TEC) over the Iberian Peninsula was studied using data from two locations obtained both by GNSS receivers and an ionosonde. The principal component analysis applied to the TEC data allowed us to extract two main modes. Each mode is characterized by daily TEC variation of a certain type (PC) and its amplitude for each of the studied day (given by the empirical orthogonal functions, EOF). The variations of these modes as well as the original TEC data were studied in relations to four strongest geomagnetic storms of 2015 and three geomagnetic disturbances of lower a…
Forbush decrease (FD), discovered by Scott E. Forbush about 80 years ago, is reffered to as the non-repetitive short-term depression in galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux, presumed to be associated with large-scale perturbations in solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). It is the most spectacular variability in the GCR intensity which appear to be the compass for investigators seeking solar-terrestrial relationships. The method of selection and validation of FD events are very important to cosmic ray scientists. We have deployed a new computer software to determine the amplitude and t…
Geomagnetic storms are an important aspect of space weather and can result in significant impacts on space- and ground-based assets. The majority of strong storms are associated with the passage of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) in the near-Earth environment. In many cases, these ICMEs can be traced back unambiguously to a specific coronal mass ejection (CME) and solar activity on the frontside of the Sun. Hence, predicting the arrival of ICMEs at Earth from routine observations of CMEs and solar activity currently makes a major contribution to the forecasting of geomagnetic sto…
An unexpected strong geomagnetic storm occurred on 2018 August 26, which was caused by a slow coronal mass ejection (CME) from a gradual eruption of a large quiet-region filament. We investigate the eruption and propagation characteristics of this CME in relation to the strong geomagnetic storm with remote sensing and in situ observations. Coronal magnetic fields around the filament are extrapolated and compared with EUV observations. We determine the propagation direction and tilt angle of the CME flux rope near the Sun using a graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) model and the Sun-to-Earth kine…
Using a three-dimensional nonhydrostatic general circulation model, we investigate the response of the thermosphere-ionosphere system to the 5-6 August 2011 major geomagnetic storm. The model is driven by measured storm-time input data of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF), solar activity, and auroral activity. Simulations for quiet steady conditions over the same period are performed as well in order to assess the response of the neutral and plasma parameters to the storm. During the storm, the high-latitude mean ion flows are enhanced by up to 150-180%. Largest ion flows are found in th…
On 5 April 2010 an interplanetary (IP) shock was detected by the Wind spacecraft ahead of Earth, followed by a fast (average speed 650 km/s) IP coronal mass ejection (ICME). During the subsequent moderate geomagnetic storm (minimum Dst = -72 nT, maximum Kp=8-), communication with the Galaxy 15 satellite was lost. We link images from STEREO/SECCHI to the near-Earth in situ observations and show that the ICME did not decelerate much between Sun and Earth. The ICME flank was responsible for a long storm growth phase. This type of glancing collision was for the first time directly observed with th…
We report on the solar source of the 2022 February 3 geomagnetic storm of moderate strength that contributed to the loss of 39 Starlink satellites. The geomagnetic storm was caused by the 2022 January 29 halo coronal mass ejection (CME) that was of moderate speed (about 690 km/s) originating from NOAA active region 12936 located in the northeast quadrant (N18E06) of the Sun. The eruption was marked by an M1.1 flare, which started at 22:45 UT, peaked at 23:32 UT on January 29 and ended at 00:24 UT the next day. The CME ended up as a shock-driving magnetic cloud (MC) observed at Sun-Earth L1 and…
GIC--Related Observations During the May 2024 Geomagnetic Storm in the United States
Space Weather Lab, George Mason University（乔治梅森大学空间天气实验室）；University of Cape Town（开普敦大学）；NSF NCAR/HAO（美国国家科学基金会国家大气研究中心/高空观测部）；NASA/GSFC（美国国家航空航天局戈达德太空飞行中心）；Cooperative Institute in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)（环境科学合作研究所）；NOAA/SWPC（美国国家海洋和大气管理局空间天气预报中心）
Eruptive events of solar activity often trigger abrupt variations of the geomagnetic field. Through the induction of electric currents, human infrastructures are also affected, namely the equipment of electric power transmission networks. It was shown in past studies that the rate of power-grid anomalies may increase after an exposure to strong geomagnetically induced currents. We search for a rapid response of devices in the Czech electric distribution grid to disturbed days of high geomagnetic activity. Such disturbed days are described either by the cumulative storm-time $Dst$ or $d(\textit…
