Semi-annual, annual and Universal Time variations in the magnetosphere and in geomagnetic activity: 4. Polar Cap motions and origins of the Universal Time effect
Mike Lockwood, Carl Haines, Luke A. Barnard, Mathew J. Owens, Chris J. Scott, Aude Chambodut, Kathryn A. McWilliams
备注：
Accepted for publication in J. Space Weather Space Clim., contains 23 Figures plus has an Appendix containing 4 Figures
We use the am, an, as and the a-sigma geomagnetic indices to the explore a previously overlooked factor in magnetospheric electrodynamics, namely the inductive effect of diurnal motions of the Earth's magnetic poles toward and away from the Sun caused by Earth's rotation. Because the offset of the (eccentric dipole) geomagnetic pole from the rotational axis is roughly twice as large in the southern hemisphere compared to the northern, the effects there are predicted to be roughly twice the amplitude. Hemispheric differences have previously been discussed in terms of polar ionospheric conductivities, effects which we allow for by studying the dipole tilt effect on time-of-year variations of the indices. The electric field induced in a geocentric frame is shown to also be a significant factor and gives a modulation of the voltage applied by the solar wind flow in the southern hemisphere of typically a 30% diurnal modulation for disturbed intervals rising to 76% in quiet times. Motion towards/away from the Sun reduces/enhances the directly-driven ionospheric voltages and reduces/enhances the magnetic energy stored in the near-Earth tail: 10% of the effect being directly-driven and 90% being in tail energy storage/release. Combined with the effect of solar wind dynamic pressure and dipole tilt on the pressure balance in the near-Earth tail, the effect provides an excellent explanation of how the observed Russell-McPherron pattern in the driving power input into the magnetosphere is converted into the equinoctial pattern in average geomagnetic activity (after correction is made for dipole tilt effects on ionospheric conductivity), added to a pronounced UT variation with minimum at 02-10UT. In addition, we show that the predicted and observed UT variations in average geomagnetic activity has implications for the occurrence of the largest events that also show the nett UT variation.
Plasma pressure distribution in the inner magnetosphere is one of the key parameters for understanding the main magnetospheric processes including geomagnetic storms and substorms. However, the pressure profiles obtained from in-situ particle measurements by the high-altitude satellites do not allow tracking the pressure variations related to the storms and substorms, because a time interval needed to do this generally exceeds the characteristic times of them. On contrary, fast movement of low-altitude satellites makes it possible to retrieve quasi-instantaneous profiles of plasma pressure alo…
The composition of ions plays a crucial role for the fundamental plasma properties in the terrestrial magnetosphere. We investigate the oxygen-to-hydrogen ratio in the near-Earth magnetosphere from -10 RE<XGSE}< 10 RE. The results are based on seven years of ion flux measurements in the energy range ~10 keV to ~955 keV from the RAPID and CIS instruments on board the Cluster satellites. We find that (1) hydrogen ions at ~10 keV show only a slight correlation with the geomagnetic conditions and interplanetary magnetic field changes. They are best correlated with the solar wind dynamic pressure a…
Low energy galactic cosmic rays as well as particles accelerated to high energies either at the solar surface or in the interplanetary medium have access to the atmosphere above a given position on the Earth depending upon the state of the magnetosphere. The interpretation of the cosmic ray anisotropy, deduced from the neutron monitor (NM) network, must assume the variability of the magnetospheric configuration. Along with a short review of changes of the geomagnetic cutoffs in the disturbed magnetosphere reported in the earlier papers, we present the results of computations of transmissivity …
Solar wind-magnetosphere coupling, its causes and consequences have been studied for the last several decades. However, the assessment of continuously changing behaviour of the sun, plasma and field flows in the interplanetary space and their influence on geomagnetic activity is still a subject of intense research. Search for the best possible coupling function is also important for space weather prediction. We utilize four geomagnetic indices (ap, aa, AE and Dst) as parameters of geomagnetic activity level in the earth's magnetosphere. In addition to these indices, we utilize various solar wi…
We show that there is a previously unreported quad-annual variation in the ~13.5 day component of the aa index of geomagnetic activity. We derive a model based on the planetary tidal effect at the solar surface due to Mercury and Jupiter that, when combined with an equinoctial response of the magnetosphere, predicts the times of occurrence of predominantly quad-annual variation or predominantly semi-annual variation in the ~13.5 day component of the aa index. In support of the model we show that, during years when the quad-annual variation in the ~13.5 day component of aa index is predominant …
Relativistic electron fluxes observed in geosynchronous orbit by GOES-8 in 1997 to 2000 were considered as a complex function of geomagnetic indices PC, Kp, and Dst as well as parameters of the magnetosphere size, subsolar Rs and terminator Rf magnetopause distances. A geosynchronous relativistic electron enhancement (GREE) is determined as daily maximal electron flux exceeding the upper root mean square deviation (RMSD) threshold of about 1500 (cm2s sr)-1. Comparison analysis of the GREE dynamics and geomagnetic conditions on the rising phase of current solar cycle revealed suppression of the…
The energy transfer during the interaction of large-scale solar wind structure and the Earth's magnetosphere is the chronic issue in space-weather studies. To understand this, researchers widely studied the geomagnetic storms and sub-storms phenomena. The present understanding suggests that long duration of southward interplanetary magnetic field component is the most important parameter for the geomagnetic storm. Such long duration strong southward magnetic field is often associated with ICMEs, torsional Alfven fluctuations superposed co-rotating interacting regions (CIRs) and fast solar wind…
We use the principal component analysis (PCA) to study geomagnetic activity at annual resolution using a network of 26 magnetic stations in 1966-2015, and an extended network of 40 stations in 1980-2015. The first principal component (PC1) describes the long-term evolution of global geomagnetic activity, and has an excellent correlation with indices like the Kp/Ap index. The two networks give identical results for PC1. The second principal component (PC2) is highly correlated with the annual percentage of high-speed streams (HSS). The extended network has a slightly higher sensitivity to HSSs.…
The direct role of successive intense magnetospheric substorms in injecting/energizing particles into the storm-time ring current is still debated and controversial. Whereas in the recent past it has been observed the absence of a net information flow between magnetic storms and substorms, previous in-situ satellite observations have evidenced that ionospheric-origin ions dominate the population of the ring current during the main phase of geomagnetic storms. As a matter of fact, the controversy arises mainly by the use of sophisticated data-driven techniques somewhat contradicting in-situ mea…
Using information on geomagnetic activity, sunspot numbers and cosmogenic isotopes, supported by historic eclipse images and in conjunction with models, it has been possible to reconstruct annual means of solar wind speed and number density and heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) intensity since 1611, when telescopic observations of sunspots began. These models are developed and tuned using data recorded by near-Earth interplanetary spacecraft and by solar magnetograms over the past 53 years. In this paper, we use these reconstructions to quantify power input into the magnetosphere over the past…
During periods of strong geomagnetic activity, intense currents flow from the magnetosphere into the high-latitude E-region ionosphere along geomagnetic field lines, B. In this region, collisions between the plasma and neutral molecules allow currents to flow across B, enabling the entire magnetosphere-ionosphere current system to close. These same currents cause strong DC electric fields in the E-region ionosphere where they drive plasma instabilities, including the Farley-Buneman instability (FBI). These instabilities give rise to small-scale plasma turbulence that modifies the large-scale i…
It is known that the magnetic field of the Earth's closed magnetosphere can be highly displaced from the quiet-day configuration when interacting with the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), an asymmetry largely controlled by the dawn-dusk component of the IMF. The corresponding ionospheric convection has revealed that footprints in one hemisphere tend to move faster to reduce the displacement, a process we refer to as the restoring of symmetry. Although the influence on the return flow convection from the process of restoring symmetry has been shown to be strongly controlled by the IMF, the …
Statistical analysis of the data series from 1856 to 2000 for the annual global and hemispheric surface air temperature anomalies is completed. Statistically significant correlations are found between global and hemispheric temperature anomalies and solar and geomagnetic indices. The temperature anomalies in the Northern and Southern hemispheres show similar statistical relations with the solar and geomagnetic indices. The cross-correlation analysis shows no statistically significant global temperature lag behind the sunspots as well as behind aa-indices. The correlation between the temperatur…
Local scaling and singularity properties of solar wind and geomagnetic time series were analysed using Hölder exponents $α$. It was shown that in analysed cases due to multifractality of fluctuations $α$ changes from point to point. We argued there exists a peculiar interplay between regularity / irregularity and amplitude characteristics of fluctuations which could be exploited for improvement of predictions of geomagnetic activity. To this end layered backpropagation artificial neural network model with feedback connection was used for the study of the solar wind - magnetosphere coupling and…
Data from the PAMELA satellite experiment were used to measure the geomagnetic cutoff for high-energy ($\gtrsim$ 80 MeV) protons during the solar particle events on 2006 December 13 and 14. The variations of the cutoff latitude as a function of rigidity were studied on relatively short timescales, corresponding to single spacecraft orbits (about 94 minutes). Estimated cutoff values were cross-checked with those obtained by means of a trajectory tracing approach based on dynamical empirical modeling of the Earth's magnetosphere. We find significant variations in the cutoff latitude, with a maxi…
In this paper we investigate the impact of permanent oscillations Pc3 on the excitation of sporadic oscillations Pi2 ( their periods are 10-45 and 40-150 s, respectively ). The hypothesis is formulated that Pc3 oscillations originating in front of the magnetosphere penetrate into the geomagnetic tail, cause a local depression in the current in the neutral sheet, and under favorable conditions stimulate a tearing instability. This leads to reconnection of magnetic field lines and an explosive release of magnetic energy stored in the tail. As a result, a substorm breaks up, with sporadic pulsati…
An X1.7 flare at 10:15 UT and a halo CME with a projected speed of 942 km/s erupted from NOAA solar active region 9393 located at N20W19, were observed on 2001 March 29. When the CME reached the Earth, it triggered a super geomagnetic storm (hereafter super storm). We find that the CME always moved towards the Earth according to the intensity-time profiles of protons with different energies. The solar wind parameters responsible for the main phase of the super storm occurred on March 31, 2001 is analyzed taking into account the delayed geomagnetic effect of solar wind at the L1 point and using…
We present our approach to modeling over 20 years of the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere system using version 5 of the Grand Unified Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling Simulation (GUMICS-5). As input we use 16-s resolution magnetic field and 1-min plasma measurements by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite from 1998 to 2020. The modeled interval is divided into 28 h simulations, which include 4 h overlap. We use a maximum magnetospheric resolution of 0.5 Earth radii (Re) up to about 15 Re from Earth and decreasing resolution further away. In the ionosphere we use a maximum reso…
An analysis of the Alfven wave generation associated with the barium vapor release at altitudes ~ 5.2 Earth's radii (ER) in the magnetosphere is presented. Such injections were executed in G-8 and G-10 experiments of the Combined Radiation and Radiation Effects Satellite (CRRES) mission. It is shown that the generation of Alfven waves is possible during the total time of plasma expansion. The maximum intensity of these waves corresponds to the time of complete retardation of the diamagnetic cavity created by the expansion of plasma cloud. The Alfven wave exhibits a form of an impulse with an e…
Data from the Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) satellite experiment were used to measure the geomagnetic cutoff for high-energy (>80 MeV) protons during the 14 December 2006 geomagnetic storm. The variations of the cutoff latitude as a function of rigidity were studied on relatively short timescales, corresponding to spacecraft orbital periods (94 min). Estimated cutoff values were compared with those obtained by means of a trajectory tracing approach based on a dynamical empirical modeling of the Earth's magnetosphere. We found significant varia…
For the period July 2003 to August 2010, the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) catalogue maintained by Richardson and Cane lists 106 Earth-directed events, which have been measured in-situ by plasma and field instruments onboard the ACE satellite. We present a statistical investigation of the Earth's thermospheric neutral density response by means of accelerometer measurements collected by the GRACE satellites, which are available for 104 ICMEs in the data set, and its relation to various geomagnetic indices and characteristic ICME parameters such as the impact speed, southward magne…
Transient and recurrent solar activity drive geomagnetic disturbances; these are quantified (amongst others) by DST, AE indices time-series. Transient disturbances are related to the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) while recurrent disturbances are related to corotating interaction regions (CIR). We study the relationship of the geomagnetic disturbances to the solar wind drivers within solar Cycle 23 where the drivers are represented by ICMEs and CIRs occurrence rate and compared to the DST and AE as follows: terms with common periodicity in both the geomagnetic disturbances and t…
In the declining phase of the solar cycle, when the new-polarity fields of the solar poles are strengthened by the transport of same-signed magnetic flux from lower latitudes, the polar coronal holes expand and form non-axisymmetric extensions toward the solar equator. These extensions enhance the occurrence of high-speed solar wind streams (HSS) and related co-rotating interaction regions in the low-latitude heliosphere, and cause moderate, recurrent geomagnetic activity in the near-Earth space. Here, using a novel definition of geomagnetic activity at high (polar cap) latitudes and the longe…
We study both the short term and long term effects of solar activity on the large transformers (150kV and 400kV) of the Greek national electric grid. We use data analysis and various analytic and statistical methods and models. Contrary to the common belief in PPC Greece, we see that there are considerable both short term (immediate) and long term effects of solar activity onto large transformers in a mid-latitude country (latitude approx. 35 - 41 degrees North) like Greece. Our results can be summarized as follows: For the short term effects: During 1989-2010 there were 43 stormy days (namely…
We investigate a CME propagating towards Earth on 29 March 2011. This event is specifically chosen for its predominately northward directed magnetic field, so that the influence from the momentum flux onto Earth can be isolated. We focus our study on understanding how a small Earth-directed segment propagates. Mass images are created from the white-light cameras onboard STEREO which are also converted into mass height-time maps (mass J-maps). The mass tracks on these J-maps correspond to the sheath region between the CME and its associated shock front as detected by in situ measurements at L1.…
Magnetic storms are the most prominent global manifestations of out-of-equilibrium magnetospheric dynamics. Investigating the dynamical complexity exhibited by geomagnetic observables can provide valuable insights into relevant physical processes as well as temporal scales associated with this phenomenon. In this work, we utilize several innovative data analysis techniques enabling a quantitative nonlinear analysis of the nonstationary behavior of the disturbance storm time (Dst) index together with some of the main drivers of its temporal variability, the $VB_{South}$ electric field component…
In this study, we investigate the global ionospheric impact of high-speed solar wind streams/corotating interaction regions (HSS/CIR). A series of ten such events are identified between December 1st 2007 and April 29th 2008, characterized in the frequency domain by the main spectral peaks corresponding to 27, 13.5, 9 and 6.75 days. The spectra of solar wind magnetic field, speed and proton density, as well as those of the geomagnetic indices AE and SYM-H are solely dominated by these features. By contrast, the ionospheric NmF2 and to a lesser extent the hmF2 spectra have a much more complex st…
We study a possible relationships between seasonal distributions of the visually observed cloudless days (CD) and cloudless nights (CN) at Abastumani Astrophysical Observatory (41.75N, 42.82E; Georgia) in 1957-1993. The annual variations of monthly numbers of CD and CN have been observed, with maximum in August for CD and in September for CN. During geomagnetic disturbances it is also observed the growth of number of CD in September andMarch (equinoctial months), and for CN, together with September, in June, April and February. We assume that this phenomenon indicates an influence of cosmic fa…
We report on the solar and interplanetary (IP) causes of the third largest geomagnetic storm (2018 August 26) in solar cycle 24. The underlying coronal mass ejection (CME) originating from a quiescent filament region becomes a 440 km/s magnetic cloud (MC) at 1 au after ~5 days. The prolonged CME acceleration (for about 24 hrs) coincides with the time profiles of the post-eruption arcade intensity and reconnected flux. Chen et al. (2019) obtain lower speed since they assumed that the CME does not accelerate after about 12 hrs. The presence of multiple coronal holes near the filament channel and…
One of the most striking properties of Kinetic Alfvén Waves (KAW) is that, unlike the also Alfvénic Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron (EMIC) waves, these waves are right-hand polarized in the plasma frame. In particular, this signature property is key for the identification of KAW from in situ measurements of plasma waves. From the theoretical point of view, both the dispersion relation and the polarization of KAW has been mostly studied in proton-electron plasmas. However, most astrophysical and space plasmas are multi-species, and therefore in these systems the dispersion properties of the KAW m…
In this article we present results of the study on the association between the muon flux variation at ground level, registered by the \textit{\textit{New-Tupi}} muon telescopes ($22^0 53'00''S,\; 43^0 06'13'W$; 3 m above sea level) and a geomagnetic storm of 25\,--\,29 August 2015 that has raged for several days as a result of a coronal mass ejection (CME) impact on Earth's magnetosphere. A sequence of events started with an M3.5 X-ray class flare on 22 August 2015 at 21:19 UTC. The \textit{\textit{New-Tupi}} muon telescopes observed a Forbush decrease (FD) triggered by this geomagnetic storm,…
Predicting geomagnetic conditions based on in-situ solar wind observations allows us to evade disasters caused by large electromagnetic disturbances originating from the Sun to save lives and protect economic activity. In this study, we aimed to examine the relationship between the Kp index, representing global magnetospheric activity level, and solar wind conditions using an interpretable neural network known as potential learning (PL). Data analyses based on neural networks are difficult to interpret; however, PL learns by focusing on the "potentiality of input neurons" and can identify whic…
We derive fast forward interplanetary (IP) shock speeds and impact angles to study the geoeffectivness of 461 IP shocks that occurred from January 1995 to December 2013 using ACE and WIND spacecraft data. The geomagnetic activity is inferred from the SuperMAG project data. SuperMAG is a large chain which employs more than 300 ground stations to compute enhanced versions of the traditional geomagnetic indices. The SuperMAG auroral electroject SME index, an enhanced version of the traditional AE index, is used as an auroral power (AP) indicator. AP intensity jumps triggered by shock impacts are …
Frontier Development Lab（前沿发展实验室）；Inter University Centre for Astronomy and Astrophysics（校际天文与天体物理中心）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）；University of New Hampshire（新罕布什尔大学）；University of Reading（雷丁大学）；Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center（洛克希德·马丁先进技术中心）；NVIDIA Corporation（英伟达公司）；SRI International（斯坦福国际研究院）；ASTRA LLC（阿斯特拉有限责任公司）
Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) arise from spatio-temporal changes to Earth's magnetic field which arise from the interaction of the solar wind with Earth's magnetosphere, and drive catastrophic destruction to our technologically dependent society. Hence, computational models to forecast GICs globally with large forecast horizon, high spatial resolution and temporal cadence are of increasing importance to perform prompt necessary mitigation. Since GIC data is proprietary, the time variability of horizontal component of the magnetic field perturbation (dB/dt) is used as a proxy for GICs…
We identify all fast-mode forward shocks, whose sheath regions resulted in a moderate (56 cases) or intense (38 cases) geomagnetic storm during 18.5 years from January 1997 to June 2015. We study their main properties, interplanetary causes and geo-effects. We find that half (49/94) such shocks are associated with interacting coronal mass ejections (CMEs), as they are either shocks propagating into a preceding CME (35 cases) or a shock propagating into the sheath region of a preceding shock (14 cases). About half (22/45) of the shocks driven by isolated transients and which have geo-effective …
The Equations of Reduced Magnetohydrodynamics in Dipole Coordinates
The Catholic University of America（美国天主教大学）；Geospace Physics Laboratory NASA Goddard Spaceflight Laboratory（NASA戈达德太空飞行中心地球空间物理实验室）；Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park（马里兰大学帕克分校天文学系）
Space Weather is the portion of space physics that has a direct effect on humankind. Space Weather is an old branch of space physics that originates back to 1808 with the publication of a paper by the great naturalist Alexander von Humboldt (von Humboldt, 1808). Space Weather is currently experiencing explosive growth, because its effects on human technologies have become more and more diverse. Space Weather is due to the variability of solar processes that cause interplanetary, magnetospheric, ionospheric, atmospheric and ground level effects. Space Weather can at times have strong impacts on…
Plasma in the earth's magnetosphere is subjected to compression during geomagnetically active periods and relaxation in subsequent quiet times. Repeated compression and relaxation is the origin of much of the plasma dynamics and intermittency in the near-earth environment. An observable manifestation of compression is the thinning of the plasma sheet resulting in magnetic reconnection when the solar wind mass, energy, and momentum floods into the magnetosphere culminating in the spectacular auroral display. This phenomenon is rich in physics at all scale sizes, which are causally interconnecte…
Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich（慕尼黑大学）；Instituto di Astrofisica Spaziale e Fisica Cosmica（空间天体物理与宇宙物理研究所）；European Space Research and Technology Centre（欧洲空间研究与技术中心）；Birkeland Centre（伯克兰中心）
The spatial distribution of energetic protons contributes towards the understanding of magnetospheric dynamics. Based upon 17 years of the Cluster/RAPID observations, we have derived machine learning-based models to predict the proton intensities at energies from 28 to 1,885 keV in the 3D terrestrial magnetosphere at radial distances between 6 and 22 RE. We used the satellite location and indices for solar, solar wind and geomagnetic activity as predictors. The results demonstrate that the neural network (multi-layer perceptron regressor) outperforms baseline models based on the k-Nearest Neig…
The Earth's magnetosphere is formed as a consequence of interaction between the planet's magnetic field and the solar wind, a continuous plasma stream from the Sun. A number of different solar wind phenomena have been studied over the past forty years with the intention of understanding and forecasting solar behavior. One of these phenomena in particular, Earth-bound interplanetary coronal mass ejections (CMEs), can significantly disturb the Earth's magnetosphere for a short time and cause geomagnetic storms. This publication presents a mission concept consisting of six spacecraft that are equ…
Effects of the May 2024 Solar Storm on the Earth's Radiation Belts Observed by CALET on the International Space Station
Louisiana State University（路易斯安那州立大学）；NASA Goddard Space Flight Center（美国国家航空航天局戈达德太空飞行中心）；Catholic University of America（美利坚天主教大学）；University of Colorado（科罗拉多大学）；Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology（冲绳科学技术大学院大学）；Shinshu University（信州大学）；Waseda University（早稻田大学）；Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency（日本宇宙航空研究开发机构）
This paper presents time series observations and analysis of broadband night sky airglow intensity 4 September 2018 through 30 April 2020. Data were obtained at 5 sites spanning more than 8500 km during the historically deep minimum of Solar Cycle 24 into the beginning of Solar Cycle 25. New time series observations indicate previously unrecognized significant sources of broadband night sky brightness variations, not involving corresponding changes in the Sun's 10.7cm solar flux, occur during deep solar minimum. Even during a deep solar minimum the natural night sky is rarely, if ever, constan…
