We analyzed the sunspot-group daily data that were reported by Greenwich Photoheliogrphic Results (GPR) during the period 1874-1976 and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during the period 1977-2017. We determined the equatorial rotation rate [A] and the latitude gradient [B] components of the solar differential rotation by fitting the data in each of the 3-year moving time intervals (3-year MTIs) successively shifted by one year during the period 1874-2017 to the standard law of differential rotation. The values of A and B around the years of maxima and minima of Solar Cycles 12-24 are obtained from the 3-year MTIs series of A and B and studied the long-term cycle-to-cycle modulations in these coefficients. Here we have used the epochs of the maxima and minima of Solar Cycles 12-24 that were recently determined from the revised Version-2 international sunspot-number series. We find that there exits a considerably significant secular decreasing-trend in A around the maxima of solar cycles. There exist no secular trends in both A and B around the minima of solar cycles. The secular trend in B around the maxima of solar cycles is also found to be statistically insignificant. We fitted a cosine function to the values of A, and also to those of B, after removing the corresponding linear trends. The cosine-fits suggest that there exist ~54-year (~94-year) and ~82-year (~79-year) periodicities in A (B) around the maxima and minima of solar cycles, respectively. The amplitude of the cosine-profile of A (B) around the minima of solar cycles is about 41% (65%) larger than that of A (B) around the maxima. In addition, the cosine profiles of A and B suggest a large (up to 180 degree) phase difference between the long-term variations of A, and also between those of B, around maxima and minima of solar cycles.
Forecasting the solar cycle amplitude is important for a better understanding of the solar dynamo as well as for many space weather applications. We demonstrated a steady relationship between the maximal growth rate of sunspot activity in the ascending phase of a cycle and the subsequent cycle amplitude on the basis of four data sets of solar activity indices: total sunspot numbers, hemispheric sunspot numbers from the new catalogue from 1874 onwards, total sunspot areas, and hemispheric sunspot areas. For all the data sets, a linear regression based on the maximal growth rate precursor shows …
We investigate solar activity by focusing on double maxima in solar cycles and try to estimate the shape of the current solar cycle (Cycle 24) during its maximum. We analyzed data for Solar Cycle 24 by using Learmonth Solar Observatory sunspot group data since 2008. All sunspot groups (SGs) recorded during this time interval were separated into two groups: The first group includes small SGs [A, B, C, H, classes by the Zurich classification], and the second group consists of large SGs [D, E, and F]. We then calculated small and large sunspot group numbers, their sunspot numbers [SSN] and Zurich…
We analysed the sunspot group data from Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during 1874-1976 and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during 1977-2017 and studied the cycle-to-cycle variations in the values of 13-month smoothed monthly mean sunspot-group area in whole sphere (WSGA), northern hemisphere (NSGA), and southern hemisphere (SSGA) at the epochs of maxima of Sunspot Cycles 12-24, and at the epochs of maxima of WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA Cycles 12-24. The cosine fits to the values of WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA at the maxima of the sunspot number, WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA Cycles 12-24, and to th…
The use of different solar activity indices like sunspot numbers, sunspot areas, flare index, magnetic fields, etc., allows us to investigate the time evolution of some specific features of the solar activity and the underlying dynamo mechanism. One of the problems when using these activity indices for some statistical analyses is the reliable determination of the maximum phases of different solar cycles which are generally characterized by a multi-peaked structure due to the presence of the so-called \emph {Gnevyshev gap}. The main aim of this work is to propose a general method, without the …
The 11-year sunspot cycle has many irregularities, the most promi- nent amongst them being the grand minima when sunspots may not be seen for several cycles. After summarizing the relevant observational data about the irregularities, we introduce the flux transport dynamo model, the currently most successful theoretical model for explaining the 11-year sunspot cycle. Then we analyze the respective roles of nonlinearities and random fluctuations in creating the irregularities. We also discuss how it has recently been realized that the fluctuations in meridional circula- tion also can be a sourc…
Maunder Minimum forms an archetype for the Grand minima, and detailed knowledge of its temporal development has important consequences for the solar dynamo theory dealing with long-term solar activity evolution. Here we reconsider the current paradigm of the Grand minimum general scenario by using newly recovered sunspot observations by G. Marcgraf and revising some earlier uncertain data for the period 1636--1642, i.e., one solar cycle before the beginning of the Maunder Minimum. The new and revised data dramatically change the magnitude of the sunspot cycle just before the Maunder Minimum, f…
Sizes of the sunspots vary in a wide range during the progression of a solar cycle. Long-term variation study of different sunspot sizes are key to better understand the underlying process of sunspot formation and their connection to the solar dynamo. Kodaikanal white-light digitized archive provides daily sunspot observations for a period of 90 years (1921-2011). Using different size criteria on the detected individual sunspots, we have generated yearly averaged sunspot area time series for the full Sun as well as for the individual hemispheres. In this paper, we have used the sunspot area va…
Direct observations over the past four centuries show that the number of sunspots observed on the Sun's surface vary periodically, going through successive maxima and minima. Following sunspot cycle 23, the Sun went into a prolonged minimum characterized by a very weak polar magnetic field and an unusually large number of days without sunspots. Sunspots are strongly magnetized regions and are generated by a dynamo mechanism which recreates the solar polar field mediated via plasma flows. Here we report results from kinematic dynamo simulations which demonstrate that a fast meridional flow in t…
Extreme solar activity fluctuations and the occurrence of solar grand minima and maxima episodes, are well established, observed features of the solar cycle. Nevertheless, such extreme activity fluctuations and the dynamics of the solar cycle during Maunder minima-like episodes remain ill-understood. We explore the origin of such extreme solar activity fluctuations and the role of dual poloidal field sources, namely the Babcock-Leighton mechanism and the mean-field alpha effect in the dynamics of the solar cycle. We mainly concentrate on entry and recovery from grand minima episodes such as th…
The dynamic activity of the Sun, governed by its cycle of sunspots -- strongly magnetized regions that are observed on its surface -- modulate our solar system space environment creating space weather. Severe space weather leads to disruptions in satellite operations, telecommunications, electric power grids and air-traffic on polar routes. Forecasting the cycle of sunspots, however, has remained a challenging problem. We use reservoir computing -- a model-free, neural--network based machine-learning technique -- to forecast the upcoming solar cycle, sunspot cycle 25. The standard algorithm fo…
It is widely assumed that the most probable sites of flare occurrences are the locations of high horizontal magnetic field gradients in the active regions. Instead of magnetograms the present work checks this assumption by using sunspot data, the targeted phenomenon is the pre-flare behaviour of the strong horizontal gradients of the magnetic field at the location of the flare. The empirical basis of the work is the SDD (SOHO/MDI-Debrecen sunspot Data) sunspot catalogue. Case studies of two active regions and five X-flares have been carried out to find possible candidates for pre-flare signatu…
The sun occasionally undergoes the so-called grand minima, in which its magnetic activity, measured by the number of sunspots, is suppressed for decades. The most prominent grand minima, since the beginning of telescopic observations of sunspots, is the Maunder minimum (1645-1715), when the sunspots became rather scarce. The mechanism underlying the grand minima remains poorly understood as there is little observational information of the solar magnetic field at that time. In this study, we examine the records of one candidate aurora display in China and Japan during the Maunder minimum. The p…
One of the most striking aspects of the 11-year sunspot cycle is that there have been times in the past when some cycles went missing, a most well-known example of this being the Maunder minimum during 1645-1715. Analyses of cosmogenic isotopes (C14 and Be10) indicated that there were about 27 grand minima in the last 11,000 yr, implying that about 2.7% of the solar cycles had conditions appropriate for forcing the Sun into grand minima. We address the question how grand minima are produced and specifically calculate the frequency of occurrence of grand minima from a theoretical dynamo model. …
In 1965 Paul D. Jose published his discovery that both the motion of the Sun about the center of mass of the solar system and periods comprised of eight Hale magnetic sunspot cycles with a mean period of ~22.37 years have a matching periodicity of ~179 years. We have investigated the implied link between solar barycentric torque cycles and sunspot cycles and have found that the unsigned solar torque values from 1610 to 2057 are consistently phase and magnitude coherent in ~179 year Jose Cycles. We are able to show that there is also a surprisingly high degree of sunspot cycle phase coherence f…
The rotational profile of the Sun is considered to be one of the key inputs in a solar dynamo model. Hence, precise and long-term measurements of this quantity is important for our understanding of solar magnetism and its variability. In this study, we use the newly digitized, white light sunspot data (1923 -- 2011) from Kodaikanal Solar Observatory (KoSO) to derive the solar rotation profile. An automated correlation based sunspot tracking algorithm is implemented to measure the rotation parameters, $A$, the equatorial rotation rate and $B$, the latitudinal gradient. Our measurements of $A=14…
We analyzed the combined 142 years sunspot-group data from Greenwich Photoheliograpic Results (GPR) and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) and determined the yearly mean residual rotation rate and the meridional velocity of sunspot groups in different 5-degree latitude intervals. The residual rotation rate is found to be -120 m/s to 80 m/s. In a large number of solar cycles the rotation is to some extent weaker during maxima than that of during minima. There exist alternate bands of equatorward and poleward merdional motions. The equatorward motion is dominant mostly around the maxima of so…
The present paper reviews results derived from statistical studies on solar activity indices. The prolonged minimum phase of cycle 23 raised the question of peculiarities inherent in cycle 23. The most important solar activity index is the relative sunspot number and though most of other indices are closely related, shifts are obtained between their peak activity of the order of 1-2 years. These shifts reveal a 22-yr pattern which can be attributed to solar interior or dynamo related processes. The minimum phase of cycle 23 is not found to be exceptional. Investigating the relative sunspot num…
The latitudinal location of the sunspot zones in each hemisphere is determined by calculating the centroid position of sunspot areas for each solar rotation from May 1874 to June 2011. When these centroid positions are plotted and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle maximum there appears to be systematic differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates as a function of sunspot cycle amplitude. If, instead, these centroid positions are plotted and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle minimum then most of the differences in the positions and equatorward…
In order to clarify a possible role of small-scale dynamo in formation of solar magnetic field, we suggest an observational test for small-scale dynamo action based on statistics of anti-Hale sunspot groups. As we have shown, according to theoretical expectations the small-scale dynamo action has to provide a population of sunspot groups which do not follow the Hale polarity law, and the density of such groups on the time-latitude diagram is expected to be independent on the phase of the solar cycle. Correspondingly, a percentage of the anti-Hale groups is expected to reach its maximum values …
As we are heading towards the next solar cycle, presumably with a relatively small amplitude, it is of significant interest to reconstruct and describe the past grand minima on the basis of actual observations of the time. The Dalton Minimum is often considered one of the grand minima captured in the coverage of telescopic observations. Nevertheless, the reconstructions of the sunspot group number vary significantly, and the existing butterfly diagrams have a large data gap during the period. This is partially because most long-term observations have remained unexplored in historical archives.…
We have measured the meridional motions of the magnetic elements in the Sun's surface layers since 1996 and find systematic and substantial variations. In general the meridional flow speed is fast at cycle minima and slow at cycle maxima. We find that these systematic variations are characterized by a weakening of the meridional flow on the poleward sides of the active (sunspot) latitudes. This can be interpreted as a inflow toward the sunspot zones superimposed on a more general poleward meridional flow profile. We also find variations in the meridional flow which vary from cycle-to-cycle. Th…
Sunspots are prominent manifestations of the solar cycle and provide key constraints for understanding its operation. Also, knowing internal structure of sunspots allows us to gain insights on the energy transport in strong magnetic fields and, thus, on the processes inside the convection zone, where solar magnetic fields are generated and amplified before emerging at the surface on various scales, even during solar minima. In this paper, we present results of a spectropolarimetric analysis of a sunspot observed during the declining phase of the solar cycle 23. By inversion of full Stokes spec…
The distribution of the sunspot group size (area) and its dependence on the level of solar activity is studied. It is shown that the fraction of small groups is not constant but decreases with the level of solar activity so that high solar activity is largely defined by big groups. We study the possible influence of solar activity on the ability of a realistic observer to see and report the daily number of sunspot groups. It is shown that the relation between the number of sunspot groups as seen by different observers with different observational acuity thresholds is strongly non-linear and ca…
We propose that grand minima in solar activity are caused by simultaneous fluctuations in the meridional circulation and the Babcock-Leighton mechanism for the poloidal field generation in the flux transport dynamo model. We present the following results: (a) fluctuations in the meridional circulation are more effective in producing grand minima; (b) both sudden and gradual initiations of grand minima are possible; (c) distributions of durations and waiting times between grand minima seem to be exponential; (d) the coherence time of the meridional circulation has an effect on the number and th…
The recent paucity of sunspots and the delay in the expected start of Solar Cycle 24 have drawn attention to the challenges involved in predicting solar activity. Traditional models of the solar cycle usually require information about the starting time and rise time as well as the shape and amplitude of the cycle. With this tutorial, we investigate the variations in the length of the sunspot number cycle and examine whether the variability can be explained in terms of a secular pattern. We identified long-term cycles in archival data from 1610 - 2000 using median trace analyses of the cycle le…
The Sun's activity cycle governs the radiation, particle and magnetic flux in the heliosphere creating hazardous space weather. Decadal-scale variations define space climate and force the Earth's atmosphere. However, predicting the solar cycle is challenging. Current understanding indicates a short window for prediction best achieved at previous cycle minima. Utilizing magnetic field evolution models for the Sun's surface and interior we perform the first century-scale, data-driven simulations of solar activity and present a scheme for extending the prediction window to a decade. Our ensemble …
Many sunspot cycles are double peaked. In 1967 Gnevyshev suggested that actually all cycles have two peaks generated by different physical mechanisms, but sometimes the gap between them is too short for the maxima to be distinguished in indices of the total sunspot activity. Here we show that indeed all cycles have two peaks easily identified in sunspot activity in different latitudinal bands. We study the double peaks in the last 12 sunspot cycles and show that they are manifestation of the two surges of toroidal field - the one generated from the poloidal field advected all the way on the su…
We have detected several periodicities in the solar equatorial rotation rate of sunspot groups in the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during the period 1931-1976, the Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) during the period 1977-2014, and the Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during the period 1974-2014. Our results suggest a ~250-day period in the equatorial rotation rate determined from both the Mt. Wilson Doppler-velocity data and the sunspot-group data during 1986-2007. However, a wavelet analysis reveals that this periodicity appears mostly around 1991 in the velocity data, …
We study the latitudinal distribution of sunspots observed from 1874 to 2009 using the center-of-latitude (COL). We calculate COL by taking the area-weighted mean latitude of sunspots for each calendar month. We then form the latitudinal distribution of COL for the sunspots appearing in the northern and southern hemispheres separately, and in both hemispheres with unsigned and signed latitudes, respectively. We repeat the analysis with subsets which are divided based on the criterion of which hemisphere is dominant for a given solar cycle. Our primary findings are as follows: (1) COL is not mo…
Solar cycles are studied with the Version 2 monthly smoothed international sunspot number, the variations of which are found to be well represented by the modified logistic differential equation with four parameters: maximum cumulative sunspot number or total sunspot number $x_m$, initial cumulative sunspot number $x_0$, maximum emergence rate $r_0$, and asymmetry $α$. A two-parameter function is obtained by taking $α$ and $r_0$ as fixed value. In addition, it is found that $x_m$ and $x_0$ can be well determined at the start of a cycle. Therefore, a prediction model of sunspot number is establ…
The method of active day fraction (ADF) was proposed recently to calibrate different solar observers to the standard observational conditions. The result of the calibration may depend on the overall level of solar activity during the observational period. This dependency is studied quantitatively using data of the Royal Greenwich Observatory, by formally calibrating synthetic pseudo-observers to the full reference dataset. It is shown that the sunspot group number is precisely estimated by the ADF method for periods of moderate activity, may be slightly underestimated by 0.5\,--\,1.5 groups ($…
The aim of this work is to create a long (410 years) series of average annual total sunspot areas AR - physically-based index of sunspot activity. We used telescopic observations of the AR index in 1832-1868 and 1875-2020, as well as the relationship between AR and long series of sunspot indices SN (ISN version 2.0) and sunspot groups GN (Svalgaard and Schatten (2016) GSN version). The Royal Greenwich observatory series after 1976 is extended by the Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station data. When reconstructing AR from SN, it is taken into account that the function AR = f (SN) has a nonlin…
We investigate the relationship between the monthly averaged maximal speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), international sunspot number (ISSN), and the geomagnetic Dst and Ap indices covering the 1996-2008 time interval (solar cycle 23). Our new findings are as follows. (1) There is a noteworthy relationship between monthly averaged maximum CME speeds and sunspot numbers, Ap and Dst indices. Various peculiarities in the monthly Dst index are correlated better with the fine structures in the CME speed profile than that in the ISSN data. (2) Unlike the sunspot numbers, the CME speed index doe…
The record of solar activity is reviewed here with emphasis on peculiarities. Since sunspot positions tell us a lot more about the solar dynamo than the various global sunspot numbers, we first focus on the records of telescopic observations of sunspots leading to positional information. Then we turn to the proxy record from cosmogenic isotope abundances, which shows recurrent grand minima over the last 9500 years. The apparent distinction between episodes of strong modulation, and intervening episodes with milder modulation and weaker overall activity, hints at the solar dynamo following a va…
Solar activity in all its varied manifestations is driven by the magnetic field. Particularly important for many purposes are two global quantities, the Sun's total and open magnetic flux, which can be computed from sunspot number records using models. Such sunspot-driven models, however, do not take into account the presence of magnetic flux during grand minima, such as the Maunder minimum. Here we present a major update of a widely used simple model, which now takes into account the observation that the distribution of all magnetic features on the Sun follows a single power law. The exponent…
Complex network approaches have been recently developed as an alternative framework to study the statistical features of time-series data. We perform a visibility-graph analysis on both the daily and monthly sunspot series. Based on the data, we propose two ways to construct the network: one is from the original observable measurements and the other is from a negative-inverse-transformed series. The degree distribution of the derived networks for the strong maxima has clear non-Gaussian properties, while the degree distribution for minima is bimodal. The long-term variation of the cycles is re…
Fluctuations in the Sun's magnetic activity, including episodes of grand minima such as the Maunder minimum have important consequences for space and planetary environments. However, the underlying dynamics of such extreme fluctuations remain ill-understood. Here we use a novel mathematical model based on stochastically forced, non-linear delay differential equations to study solar cycle fluctuations, in which, time delays capture the physics of magnetic flux transport between spatially segregated dynamo source regions in the solar interior. Using this model we explicitly demonstrate that the …
Measurements from the Mount Wilson Observatory (MWO) are used to study the long-term variations of sunspot field strengths from 1920 to 1958. Following a modified approach similar to that in Pevtsov et al. (2011), for each observing week we select a single sunspot with the strongest field strength measured that week and then compute monthly averages of these weekly maximum field strengths. The data show the solar cycle variation of the peak field strengths with an amplitude of about 500-700 gauss (G), but no statistically significant long-term trends. Next, we use the sunspot observations from…
Observing and counting sunspots constitutes one of the longest-running scientific experiment, with first observations dating back to Galileo and the invention of the telescope around 1610. Today the sunspot number (SN) time series acts as a benchmark of solar activity in a large range of physical models. An appropriate statistical modelling, adapted to the time series' complex nature, is however still lacking. In this work, we provide the first comprehensive uncertainty quantification analysis of sunspot counts. Our interest lies in the following three components: the number of spots ($N_s$), …
The main purpose of this study is the determination of solar minimum date of the new sunspot cycle No 24. It is provided by using of four types of mean daily data values for the period Jan 01. 2006 - Dec 31. 2009: (1) the solar radioindex F10.7; (2) the International sunspot number Ri; (3) the total solar irradiance index (TSI), and (4) the daily number of X-ray flares of classes from "B" to "X" from the soft X-ray GOES satellite channel (0.1 - 0.8 nm). It is found that the mean starting moment of the upward solar activity tendency (the mean solar minimum) is Nov. 06th, 2008. So, the solar cyc…
The Sun's polar magnetic fields change their polarity near the maximum of sunspot activity. We analyzed the polarity reversal epochs in Solar Cycles 21 to 24. There was a triple reversal in the N-hemisphere in Solar Cycle 24 and single reversals in the rest of cases. Epochs of the polarity reversal from measurements of the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) are compared with ones when the reversals were completed in the N- and S-hemispheres. The reversal times were compared with hemispherical sunspot activity and with the Heliospheric Current Sheet (HCS) tilts, too. It was found that reversals occ…
We have analysed the combined Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) sunspot group data during the period of 1874-2011 and determined variations in the annual numbers (counts) of the small, large and big sunspot groups (these classifications are made on the basis of the maximum areas of the sunspot groups). We found that the amplitude of an even-numbered cycle of the number of large groups is smaller than that of its immediately following odd-numbered cycle. This is consistent with the well known Gnevyshev and Ohl rule or G-O rule of solar cycles, generally described by using the…
The Solar Cycle is reviewed. The 11-year cycle of solar activity is characterized by the rise and fall in the numbers and surface area of sunspots. A number of other solar activity indicators also vary in association with the sunspots including; the 10.7cm radio flux, the total solar irradiance, the magnetic field, flares and coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic activity, galactic cosmic ray fluxes, and radioisotopes in tree rings and ice cores. Individual solar cycles are characterized by their maxima and minima, cycle periods and amplitudes, cycle shape, the equatorward drift of the active la…
The solar cycle periodically reshapes the magnetic structure and radiative output of the Sun and determines its impact on the heliosphere roughly every 11 years. Besides this main periodicity, it shows century-long variations (including periods of abnormally low solar activity called grand minima). The Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) has generated significant interest as the archetype of a grand minimum in magnetic activity for the Sun and other stars, suggesting a potential link between the Sun and changes in terrestrial climate. Recent reanalyses of sunspot observations have yielded a conflicted…
We analyzed the daily sunspot-group data reported by the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during the period 1874-1976 and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during the period 1977-2017 and studied North-South asymmetry in the maxima and minima of the Solar Cycles 12-24. We derived the time series of the 13-month smoothed monthly mean corrected whole-spot areas of the sunspot groups in the Sun's whole sphere (WSGA), northern hemisphere (NSGA), and southern hemisphere (SSGA). From these smoothed time series we obtained the values of the maxima and minima, and the corresponding epochs…
Records of observations of sunspots and auroras in pre-telescopic historical documents provide useful information about past solar activity both in long-term trends and short-term space weather events. In this study, we present the results of a comprehensive survey of the records of sunspots and aurora candidates in the Yuánshǐ and Míngshǐ, Chinese Official Histories spanning 1261-1368 and 1368-1644, based on continuous observations with well-formatted reportds conducted by contemporary professional astronomers. We then provide a brief comparison of these data with Total Solar Irradiance (TSI)…
The 11-year solar cycle is the dominant pattern of solar activity reflecting the oscillatory dynamo mechanism in the Sun. Solar cycles were directly observed since 1700, while indirect proxies suggest their existence over a much longer period of time but generally without resolving individual cycles and their continuity. Here we reconstruct individual cycles for the last millennium using recent 14C data and state-of-the-art models. Starting with the 14C production rate determined from the so far most precise measurements of radiocarbon content in tree rings, solar activity is reconstructed in …
Context: The Sun's polar fields and open flux around the time of activity minima have been considered to be strongly correlated with the strength of the subsequent maximum of solar activity. Aims: We aim to investigate the behavior of a Babcock-Leighton dynamo with a source poloidal term that is based on the observed sunspot areas and tilts. In particular, we investigate whether the toroidal fields at the base of convection zone from the model are correlated with the observed solar cycle activity maxima. Methods: We used a flux transport dynamo model that includes convective pumping and a polo…
We present the properties of the inverse Evershed flow (IEF) based on the center-to-limb variation of the plasma speed and loop geometry of chromospheric superpenumbral fibrils in eleven sunspots that were located at a wide range of heliocentric angles from 12 to 79 deg. The observations were acquired at the Dunn Solar Telescope in the spectral lines of Halpha at 656nm, CaII IR at 854 nm and HeI at 1083 nm. All sunspots display opposite line-of-sight (LOS) velocities on the limb and center side with a distinct shock signature near the outer penumbral edge. We developed a simplified flexible su…
Recovery of the Solar Cycle from Maunder-like Grand Minima Episodes: A Quantification of the Necessary Polar Flux Threshold through Solar Dynamo Simulations
The linear relationship between the maximum amplitudes (R$_{max}$) of sunspot cycles and preceding minima (R$_{min}$) is one of the precursor methods used to predict the amplitude of the upcoming solar cycle. In the recent past this method has been subjected to severe criticism. In this communication we show that this simple method is reliable and can profitably be used for prediction purposes. With the 13-month smoothed R$_{min}$ of 1.8 at the beginning, it is predicted that the R$_{max}$ of the ongoing cycle will be around 85$\pm$17, suggesting that Cycle 24 may be of moderate strength. Base…
By using the unique database of SOHO/MDI full disk magnetograms from 1996 September to 2011 January, covering the entire solar cycle 23, we analyze the time-variability of the solar magnetic flux spectrum and study the properties of extended minimum of cycle 23. We totally identify 11.5 million magnetic structures. It has been revealed that magnetic features with different magnetic fluxes exhibit different cycle behaviors. The magnetic features with flux larger than $4.0 \times 10^{19}$ Mx, which cover solar active regions and strong network features, show exactly the same variation as sunspot…
The maximum of a solar cycle contain two or more peaks, known as Gnevyshev peaks. Studies of this property of solar cycles may help for better understanding the solar dynamo mechanism. We analysed the 13-month smoothed monthly mean Version-2 international sunspot number (SN) during the period 1874-2017 and found that there exists a good correlation between the amplitude (value of the main and highest peak) and the value of the second maximum (value of the second highest peak) during the maximum of a solar cycle.Using this relationship and the earlier predicted value 86 (~92) of the amplitude o…
