对太阳黑子周期振幅具有惊人准确性的预测器
A Remarkably Accurate Predictor of Sunspot Cycle Amplitude
AI总结：
基于太阳黑子与白光斑的线性关系，利用连续图像预测太阳黑子周期振幅，提前3-4年准确预测周期25振幅。
摘要：
太阳黑子与白光( WL )斑的线性关系在太阳黑子周期12-21的开始处的斜率与这些周期在1878-1980年间的振幅之间具有良好的相关性 ( Brown and Evans, 1980 )。我们使用SOHO迈克尔逊多普勒成像仪和SDO日球磁场成像仪的连续图像来证明这种关系也适用于周期24和25。使用这种关系计算周期12-21和24的振幅与观测到的振幅的误差在±4% rms以内。它还使我们能够在2022年提前3年在最大值前正确预测了一个比国际预测面板估计更大的周期25。该技术提供了一种基于物理的、客观的预测器，可以在其最大值前3-4年预测周期振幅，前提是有一个稳定的连续全盘光球图像源。
英文摘要：
The slopes of the linear relations between sunspot and white light (WL) facular areas at the onset of sunspot Cycles 12-21 correlate well with the amplitudes of those cycles between 1878-1980 (Brown and Evans, 1980). We use continuum images from the SOHO Michelson Doppler Imager and SDO Heliospheric Magnetic Imager to show that the relation holds also for Cycles 24 and 25. The amplitudes of Cycles 12-21 and 24 calculated using this relation agree with the observed amplitudes to within +/- 4% rms. It also enabled us in 2022 to correctly predict a larger Cycle 25 than estimated by the International Prediction Panel, 3 years before maximum. The technique offers an objective, physically based predictor of cycle amplitudes 3-4 years ahead of their maxima, given a stable source of continuum full disk photospheric images.
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