从新的太阳黑子数分析无黑子日数对太阳活动的预测作用
Analysing the spotless days as predictors of the solar activity from the new sunspot number
摘要：
本文根据新的24月滤波太阳黑子数指数，对用无黑子日数预测未来太阳活动的方法进行了修正。考虑太阳周期（SC）10的数据，因为从这个太阳周期的记录的时间覆盖率是100%。探讨了无黑子日的时间特征及其与太阳黑子周期参数的比较的相互关系，在某些情况下发现非常强的相关性。这就是给定太阳活动极大期两侧无尘日之间的最短时间与前一个太阳活动极小期两侧无尘日之间的最长时间之间的关系，r = -0.91，p值< 0.001。然而，其他作者在以前的作品中使用无尘日作为太阳活动的预测者对SC 24或23的预测并不好，因为它没有实现。虽然似乎有一个模式的强相关性的一些参数之间的关系研究，预测未来的太阳活动周期，从这些参数定义为函数的一尘不染的日子应该谨慎，因为有时估计值是远离观测值。最后，SC 23似乎显示出一种模式的变化，一种相对于其先前太阳活动周期的行为的中断，并且更类似于SC 10-15。
英文摘要：
The use of the spotless days to predict the future solar activity is here revised based on the new version of the sunspot number index with a 24-month filter. Data from Solar Cycle (SC) 10 are considered because from this solar cycle the temporal coverage of the records is 100 %. The interrelationships of the timing characteristics of spotless days and their comparison with sunspot cycle parameters are explored, in some cases finding very strong correlations. Such is the case for the relationship between the minimum time between spotless days either side of a given solar maximum and the maximum time between spotless days either side in the previous solar minimum, with r = -0.91 and a p-value < 0.001. However, the predictions for SC 24 or 23 made by other authors in previous works using the spotless days as a predictor of solar activity are not good since it has not been fulfilled. Although there seems to be a pattern of strong correlation for some relationships between the parameters studied, prediction of future solar cycles from these parameters defined as functions of the spotless days should be made with caution because sometimes the estimated values are far from the observed ones. Finally, SC 23 seems to show a mode change, a break respect to the behavior of their previous solar cycles and more similar to SC 10-15.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
