Let $Y=X_1+\cdots+X_N$ be a sum of a random number of exchangeable random variables, where the random variable $N$ is independent of the $X_j$, and the $X_j$ are from the generalized multinomial model introduced by Tallis (1962). This relaxes the classical assumption that the $X_j$ are independent. We use zero-biased coupling and its generalizations to give explicit error bounds in the approximation of $Y$ by a Gaussian random variable in Wasserstein distance when either the random variables $X_j$ are centred or $N$ has a Poisson distribution. We further establish an explicit bound for the approximation of $Y$ by a gamma distribution in stop-loss distance for the special case where $N$ is Poisson. Finally, we briefly comment on analogous Poisson approximation results that make use of size-biased couplings. The special case of independent $X_j$ is given special attention throughout. As well as establishing results which extend beyond the independent setting, our bounds are shown to be competitive with known results in the independent case.
In the paper, upper bounds for the rate of convergence in laws of large numbers for mixed Poisson random sums are constructed. As a measure of the distance between the limit and pre-limit laws, the Zolotarev $ζ$-metric is used. The obtained results extend the known convergence rate estimates for geometric random sums (in the famous R{é}nyi theorem) to a considerably wider class of random indices with mixed Poisson distributions including, e. g., those with the (generalized) negative binomial distribution.
We characterize the subexponential densities on $(0,\infty)$ for compound Poisson distributions on $[0,\infty)$ with absolutely continuous Lévy measures. As a corollary, we show that the class of all subexponential probability density functions on $\mathbb R_+$ is closed under generalized convolution roots of compound Poisson sums. Moreover, we give an application to the subexponential density on $(0,\infty)$ for the distribution of the supremum of a random walk.
We present sufficient conditions for sums of dependent point processes to converge in distribution to a Poisson process. This extends the classical result of Grigelionis [Theory Probab. Appl. 8 (1963) 172--182] for sums of uniformly null point processes that have Poisson limits. Included is an application in which a particle-survivor point process converges to a Poisson process. This result sheds light on the ``surprising'' Poisson limit of the species competition process of Durrett and Limic [Stochastic Process. Appl. 102 (2002) 301--309].
In this paper we present multivariate space-time fractional Poisson processes by considering common random time-changes of a (finite-dimensional) vector of independent classical (non-fractional) Poisson processes. In some cases we also consider compound processes. We obtain some equations in terms of some suitable fractional derivatives and fractional difference operators, which provides the extension of known equations for the univariate processes.
In this paper we consider the relation between random sums and compositions of different processes. In particular, for independent Poisson processes $N_α(t)$, $N_β(t)$, $t>0$, we show that $N_α(N_β(t)) \overset{\text{d}}{=} \sum_{j=1}^{N_β(t)} X_j$, where the $X_j$s are Poisson random variables. We present a series of similar cases, the most general of which is the one in which the outer process is Poisson and the inner one is a nonlinear fractional birth process. We highlight generalisations of these results where the external process is infinitely divisible. A section of the paper concerns c…
The extremal tail probabilities of moving sums in a marked Poisson random field is examined here. These sums are computed by adding up the weighted occurrences of events lying within a scanning set of fixed shape and size. Change of measure and analysis of local random fields are used to provide tail probabilities. The asymptotic constants are initially expressed in a form that seems hard to evaluate and do not seem to provide any additional information on the properties of the constants. A more sophisticated approach is then undertaken giving rise to an expression that is not only neater but …
Non-uniform estimates are obtained for Poisson, compound Poisson, translated Poisson, negative binomial and binomial approximations to sums of of m-dependent integer-valued random variables. Estimates for Wasserstein metric also follow easily from our results. The results are then exemplified by the approximation of Poisson binomial distribution, 2-runs and $m$-dependent $(k_1,k_2)$-events.
This article derives quantitative limit theorems for multivariate Poisson and Poisson process approximations. Employing the solution of Stein's equation for Poisson random variables, we obtain an explicit bound for the multivariate Poisson approximation of random vectors in the Wasserstein distance. The bound is then utilized in the context of point processes to provide a Poisson process approximation result in terms of a new metric called $d_π$, stronger than the total variation distance, defined as the supremum over all Wasserstein distances between random vectors obtained by evaluating the …
Bounds of the accuracy of the normal approximation to the distribution of a sum of independent random variables are improved under relaxed moment conditions, in particular, under the absence of moments of orders higher than the second. These results are extended to Poisson-binomial, binomial and Poisson random sums. Under the same conditions, bounds are obtained for the accuracy of the approximation of the distributions of mixed Poisson random sums by the corresponding limit law. In particular, these bounds are constructed for the accuracy of approximation of the distributions of geometric, ne…
The distribution of the sum of 1-dependent lattice vectors with supports on coordinate axes is approximated by a multivariate compound Poisson distribution and by signed compound Poisson measure. The local and $\ell_α$-norms are used to obtain the error bounds. The Heinrich method is used for the proofs.
By a modification of the method that was applied in (Korolev and Shevtsova, 2009), here the inequalities $$ρ(F_n,Φ)\le\frac{0.335789(β^3+0.425)}{\sqrt{n}}$$ and $$ρ(F_n,Φ)\le \frac{0.3051(β^3+1)}{\sqrt{n}} $$ are proved for the uniform distance $ρ(F_n,Φ)$ between the standard normal distribution function $Φ$ and the distribution function $F_n$ of the normalized sum of an arbitrary number $n\ge1$ of independent identically distributed random variables with zero mean, unit variance and finite third absolute moment $β^3$. The first of these inequalities sharpens the best known version of the clas…
In this article, we consider Poisson and Poisson convoluted geometric approximation to the sums of $n$ independent random variables under moment conditions. We use Stein's method to derive the approximation results in total variation distance. The error bounds obtained are either comparable to or improvement over the existing bounds available in the literature. Also, we give an application to the waiting time distribution of 2-runs.
Estimates are constructed for the deviation of the concentration functions of sums of independent random variables with finite variances from the folded normal distribution function without any assumptions concerning the existence of the moments of summands of higher orders. The obtained results are extended to Poisson-binomial, binomial and Poisson random sums. Under the same assumptions, the bounds are obtained for the approximation of the concentration functions of mixed Poisson random sums by the corresponding limit distributions. In particular, bounds are obtained for the accuracy of appr…
Stochastically monotone Markov chains arise in many applied domains, especially in the setting of queues and storage systems. Poisson's equation is a key tool for analyzing additive functionals of such models, such as cumulative sums of waiting times or sums of rewards. In this paper, we show that when the reward function for such a Markov chain is monotone, the solution of Poisson's equation is monotone. This implies that the value function associated with infinite horizon average reward is monotone in the state when the reward is monotone.
Let $\mathcal{P}$ be the set of the primes. We consider a class of random multiplicative functions $f$ supported on the squarefree integers, such that $\{f(p)\}_{p\in\mathcal{P}}$ form a sequence of $\pm1$ valued independent random variables with $\mathbb{E} f(p)<0$, $\forall p\in \mathcal{P}$. The function $f$ is called strongly biased (towards classical Möbius function), if $\sum_{p\in\mathcal{P}}\frac{f(p)}{p}=-\infty$ a.s., and it is weakly biased if $\sum_{p\in\mathcal{P}}\frac{f(p)}{p} $ converges a.s. Let $M_f(x):=\sum_{n\leq x}f(n)$. We establish a number of necessary and sufficient co…
The solution of Poisson's equation plays a key role in constructing the martingale through which sums of Markov correlated random variables can be analyzed. In this paper, we study two different representations for the solution in countable state space, one based on regenerative structure and the other based on an infinite sum of expectations. We also consider integrability and related uniqueness issues associated with solutions to Poisson's equation, and provide verifiable Lyapunov conditions to support our theory. Our key results include a central limit theorem and law of the iterated logari…
The simple Lévy Poisson process and scaled forms are explicitly constructed from partial sums of independent and identically distributed random variables and from sums of non-stationary independent random variables. For the latter, the weak limits are scaled Poisson processes. The method proposed here prepares generalizations to dependent data, to associated data in the first place.
We study perpetuities of a special type related to the size-biased distributions. Necessary and sufficient conditions of their existence and uniqueness are obtained. A crucial point in proving all results is a close connection between perpetuities treated in the paper and fixed points of so-called Poisson shot noise transforms.
In this paper we obtain the limit distribution for partial sums with a random number of terms following a class of mixed Poisson distributions. The resulting weak limit is a mixing between a normal distribution and an exponential family, which we call by normal exponential family (NEF) laws. A new stability concept is introduced and a relationship between α-stable distributions and NEF laws is established. We propose estimation of the parameters of the NEF models through the method of moments and also by the maximum likelihood method, which is performed via an Expectation-Maximization algorith…
In this article, we provide an extension of the Chen-Stein inequality for Poisson approximation in the total variation distance for sums of independent Bernoulli random variables in two ways. We prove that we can improve the rate of convergence (hence the quality of the approximation) by using explicitly constructed signed or positive probability measures, and that we can extend the setting to possibly dependent random variables. The framework which allows this is that of mod-Poisson convergence, and more precisely those mod-Poisson convergent sequences whose residue functions can be expressed…
We consider predictions of the random number and the magnitude of each iid component in a random sum based on its distributional structure, where only a total value of the sum is available and where iid random components are non-negative. The problem is motivated by prediction problems in a Poisson shot noise process. In the context, although conditional moments are best possible predictors under the mean square error, only a few special cases have been investigated because of numerical difficulties. We replace the prediction problem of the process with that of a random sum, which is more gene…
Central limit theorems for squared increment sums of fractional Brownian fields based on a Delaunay triangulation in $2D$
Université du Littoral Côte d’Opale（法国北部海岸大学）；Université de Lyon, Université Lyon 1, Institut de Science Financière et d’Assurances（里昂大学，里昂第一大学，金融与保险科学学院）；Laboratory in Finance and Insurance - LFA CREST - Center for Research in Economics and Statistics, ENSAE（金融与保险实验室-LFA CREST-经济与统计研究中心，巴黎国立高等经济学院）
In this article, we obtain, for the total variance distance, the error bounds between Poisson and convolution of power series distributions via Stein's method. This provides a unified approach to many known discrete distributions. Several Poisson limit theorems follow as corollaries from our bounds. As applications, we compare the Poisson approximation results with the negative binomial approximation results, for the sums of Bernoulli, geometric, and logarithmic series random variables.
We prove that homogenous sums inside a fixed discrete Poisson chaos are universal with respect to normal approximations. This result parallels some recent findings, in a Gaussian context, by Nourdin, Peccati and Reinert (2010). As a by-product of our analysis, we provide some refinements of the CLTs for random variables on the Poisson space proved by Peccati, Solé, Taqqu and Utzet (2010), and by Peccati and Zheng (2010).
We consider the Gaussian approximation for functionals of a Poisson process that are expressible as sums of region-stabilizing (determined by the points of the process within some specified regions) score functions and provide a bound on the rate of convergence in the Wasserstein and the Kolmogorov distances. While such results have previously been shown in Lachièze-Rey, Schulte and Yukich (2019), we extend the applicability by relaxing some conditions assumed there and provide further insight into the results. This is achieved by working with stabilization regions that may differ from balls o…
We derive an asymptotic expansion for the distribution of a compound sum of independent random variables, all having the same light-tailed subexponential distribution. The examples of a Poisson and geometric number of summands serve as an illustration of the main result. Complete calculations are done for a Weibull distribution, with which we derive, as examples and without any difficulties, 7 terms expansions.
The aim of the present work is to show that the results obtained earlier on the approximation of distributions of sums of independent terms by the accompanying compound Poisson laws may be interpreted as rather sharp quantitative estimates for the closeness between the sample containing independent observations of rare events and the Poisson point process which is obtained after a Poissonization of the initial sample.
Poisson approximation using Stein's method has been extensively studied in the literature. The main focus has been on bounding the total variation distance. This paper is a first attempt on moderate deviations in Poisson approximation for right-tail probabilities of sums of dependent indicators. We obtain results under certain general conditions for local dependence as well as for size-bias coupling. These results are then applied to independent indicators, 2-runs, and the matching problem.
The randomized $k$-number partitioning problem is the task to distribute $N$ i.i.d. random variables into $k$ groups in such a way that the sums of the variables in each group are as similar as possible. The restricted $k$-partitioning problem refers to the case where the number of elements in each group is fixed to $N/k$. In the case $k=2$ it has been shown that the properly rescaled differences of the two sums in the close to optimal partitions converge to a Poisson point process, as if they were independent random variables. We generalize this result to the case $k>2$ in the restricted prob…
We prove abstract bounds on the Wasserstein and Kolmogorov distances between non-randomly centered random sums of real i.i.d. random variables with a finite third moment and the standard normal distribution. Except for the case of mean zero summands, these bounds involve a coupling of the summation index with its size biased distribution as was previously considered in \cite{GolRin96} for the normal approximation of nonnegative random variables. When being specialized to concrete distributions of the summation index like the Binomial, Poisson and Hypergeometric distribution, our bounds turn ou…
A novel multinomial theorem for commutative idempotents is shown to lead to new results about the moments, central moments, factorial moments, and their generating functions for any random variable $X = \sum_{i} Y_i $ expressible as a sum of Bernoulli indicator random variables $Y_i$. The resulting expressions are functions of the expectation of products of the Bernoulli indicator random variables. These results are used to derive novel expressions for the various moments in a large number of familiar examples and classic problems including: the binomial, hypergeometric, Poisson limit of the b…
In earlier stages in the introduction to asymptotic methods in probability theory, the weak convergence of sequences $(X_n)_{n\geq 1}$ of Binomial of random variables (\textit{rv}'s) to a Poisson law is classical and easy-to prove. A version of such a result concerning sequences $(Y_n)_{n\geq 1}$ of negative binomial \textit{rv}'s also exists. In both cases, $X_n$ and $Y_n-n$ are by-row sums $S_n[X]$ and $S_n[Y]$ of arrays of Bernoulli \textit{rv}'s and corrected geometric \textit{rv}'s respectively. When considered in the general frame of asymptotic theorems of by-row sums of \textit{rv}'s of…
We study distributions $F$ on $[0,\infty)$ such that for some $T\le\infty$, $F^{*2}(x,x+T]\sim 2 F(x,x+T]$. The case $T=\infty$ corresponds to $F$ being subexponential, and our analysis shows that the properties for $T<\infty$ are, in fact, very similar to this classical case. A parallel theory is developed in the presence of densities. Applications are given to random walks, the key renewal theorem, compound Poisson process and Bellman-Harris branching processes.
We construct a tree-based dependence structure for the representation of binomial, Poisson and Gaussian random vectors having a given covariance matrix, using sums of independent random variables. This construction allows us to characterize the supermodular ordering of such random vectors via the componentwise ordering of their covariance matrices. Our method relies on the representation of dependent components using binary trees on the discrete $d$-dimensional hypercube $C_d$, and on Möbius inversion techniques. In the case of Poisson random vectors this approach involves Lévy measures on $C_…
One major obstacle in applications of Stein's method for compound Poisson approximation is the availability of so-called magic factors (bounds on the solution of the Stein equation) with favourable dependence on the parameters of the approximating compound Poisson random variable. In general, the best such bounds have an exponential dependence on these parameters, though in certain situations better bounds are available. In this paper, we extend the region for which well-behaved magic factors are available for compound Poisson approximation in the Kolmogorov metric, allowing useful compound Po…
Let $S$ and $X$ be independent random variables, assuming values in the set of non-negative integers, and suppose further that both $\mathbb{E}(S)$ and $\mathbb{E}(X)$ are integers satisfying $\mathbb{E}(S)\ge \mathbb{E}(X)$. We establish a sufficient condition for the tail probability $\mathbb{P}(S\ge \mathbb{E}(S))$ to be larger than $\mathbb{P}(S+X\ge \mathbb{E}(S+X))$. We also apply this result to sums of independent binomial and Poisson random variables.
This paper obtains an asymptotic formula for the finite-time ruin probability of the compound nonhomogeneous Poisson risk model with a constant interest force, in which the claims are conditionally independent random variables with a common subexponential distribution. The paper also obtains some asymptotic relations of randomly weighted sums $\sum_{i=1}^n θ_iX_i$, in which the weights $θ_i$ $i=1,2,\cdots, n$ are positive random variables which are bounded above and the primary random variables $X_i$, $i=1,2,\cdots,n$ are conditionally independent and follow subexponential distributions.
We prove a general multidimensional invariance principle for a family of U-statistics based on freely independent non-commutative random variables of the type $U_n(S)$, where $U_n(x)$ is the $n$-th Chebyshev polynomial and $S$ is a standard semicircular element on a fixed $W^{\ast}$-probability space. As a consequence, we deduce that homogeneous sums based on random variables of this type are universal with respect to both semicircular and free Poisson approximations. Our results are stated in a general multidimensional setting and can be seen as a genuine extension of some recent findings by …
The geometric sum plays a significant role in risk theory and reliability theory \cite{Kala97} and a prototypical example of the geometric sum is Rényi's theorem~\cite{Renyi56} saying a sequence of suitably parameterised geometric sums converges to the exponential distribution. There is extensive study of the accuracy of exponential distribution approximation to the geometric sum \cite{Sugakova95,Kala97,PekozRollin11} but there is little study on its natural counterpart of gamma distribution approximation to negative binomial sums. In this note, we show that a nonnegative random variable follo…
Attenuated Poisson Dirichlet approximations for divisibility configurations
Centro de Investigación en matemáticas (CIMAT)（数学研究中心）；Escuela Nacional de Estudios Superiores, Unidad León, Guanajuato（全国高等研究学校莱昂分校）；UC Santa Barbara（加州大学圣塔芭芭拉分校）
This paper deals with sequences of random variables belonging to a fixed chaos of order $q$ generated by a Poisson random measure on a Polish space. The problem is investigated whether convergence of the third and fourth moment of such a suitably normalized sequence to the third and fourth moment of a centred Gamma law implies convergence in distribution of the involved random variables. A positive answer is obtained for $q=2$ and $q=4$. The proof of this four moments theorem is based on a number of new estimates for contraction norms. Applications concern homogeneous sums and $U$-statistics o…
We give a new integral characterization of the Dirichlet process on a general phase space. To do so we first prove a characterization of the nonsymmetric Beta distribution via size-biased sampling. Two applications are a new characterization of the Dirichlet distribution and a marked version of a classical characterization of the Poisson-Dirichlet distribution via invariance under size-biased sampling.
The busy period length distribution function knowledge is important for any queue system, and for the MGINF queue. But the mathematical expressions are in general very complicated, with a few exceptions, involving usually infinite sums and multiple convolutions. So, in this work are deduced some bounds for the MMINF system busy period length distribution function, meaning the second M exponential service time, which analytic expressions are simpler than the exact one. As a consequence, also some bounds for the MMINF system busy cycle length distribution function are presented.
This paper establishes expectation and variance asymptotics for statistics of the Poisson--Voronoi approximation of general sets, as the underlying intensity of the Poisson point process tends to infinity. Statistics of interest include volume, surface area, Hausdorff measure, and the number of faces of lower-dimensional skeletons. We also consider the complexity of the so-called Voronoi zone and the iterated Voronoi approximation. Our results are consequences of general limit theorems proved with an abstract Steiner-type formula applicable in the setting of sums of stabilizing functionals.
This paper considers the entropy of the sum of (possibly dependent and non-identically distributed) Bernoulli random variables. Upper bounds on the error that follows from an approximation of this entropy by the entropy of a Poisson random variable with the same mean are derived. The derivation of these bounds combines elements of information theory with the Chen-Stein method for Poisson approximation. The resulting bounds are easy to compute, and their applicability is exemplified. This conference paper presents in part the first half of the paper entitled "An information-theoretic perspectiv…
It is well-known that assumptions of monotonicity in size-bias couplings may be used to prove simple, yet powerful, Poisson approximation results. Here we show how these assumptions may be relaxed, establishing explicit Poisson approximation bounds (depending on the first two moments only) for random variables which satisfy an approximate version of these monotonicity conditions. These are shown to be effective for models where an underlying random variable of interest is contaminated with noise. We also give explicit Poisson approximation bounds for sums of associated or negatively associated…
We construct admissible circulant Laplacian matrix functions as generators for strictly increasing random walks on the integer line. These Laplacian matrix functions refer to a certain class of Bernstein functions. The approach has connections with biased walks on digraphs. Within this framework, we introduce a space-time generalization of the Poisson process as a strictly increasing walk with discrete Mittag-Leffler jumps subordinated to a (continuous-time) fractional Poisson process. We call this process `{\it space-time Mittag-Leffler process}'. We derive explicit formulae for the state pro…
For a distribution $F^{*τ}$ of a random sum $S_τ=ξ_1+...+ξ_τ$ of i.i.d. random variables with a common distribution $F$ on the half-line $[0,\infty)$, we study the limits of the ratios of tails $\bar{F^{*τ}}(x)/\bar{F}(x)$ as $x\to\infty$ (here, $τ$ is a counting random variable which does not depend on $\{ξ_n\}_{n\ge1}$). We also consider applications of the results obtained to random walks, compound Poisson distributions, infinitely divisible laws, and subcritical branching processes.
This paper focuses on the size-biased permutation of $n$ independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) positive random variables. This is a finite dimensional analogue of the size-biased permutation of ranked jumps of a subordinator studied in Perman-Pitman-Yor (PPY) [Probab. Theory Related Fields 92 (1992) 21-39], as well as a special form of induced order statistics [Bull. Inst. Internat. Statist. 45 (1973) 295-300; Ann. Statist. 2 (1974) 1034-1039]. This intersection grants us different tools for deriving distributional properties. Their comparisons lead to new results, as well as simple…
We say that a random integer variable $X$ is monotone if the modulus of the characteristic function of $X$ is decreasing on $[0,π]$. This is the case for many commonly encountered variables, e.g., Bernoulli, Poisson and geometric random variables. In this note, we provide estimates for the probability that the sum of independent monotone integer variables attains precisely a specific value. We do not assume that the variables are identically distributed. Our estimates are sharp when the specific value is close to the mean, but they are not useful further out in the tail. By combining with the …
This paper concerns the asymptotic behavior of a random variable $W_λ$ resulting from the summation of the functionals of a Gibbsian spatial point process over windows $Q_λ\uparrow R^d$. We establish conditions ensuring that $W_λ$ has volume order fluctuations, that is they coincide with the fluctuations of functionals of Poisson spatial point processes. We combine this result with Stein's method to deduce rates of normal approximation for $W_λ$, as $λ\to\infty$. Our general results establish variance asymptotics and central limit theorems for statistics of random geometric and related Euclide…
Several classical results on boundary crossing probabilities of Brownian motion and random walks are extended to asymptotically Gaussian random fields, which include sums of i.i.d. random variables with multidimensional indices, multivariate empirical processes, and scan statistics in change-point and signal detection as special cases. Some key ingredients in these extensions are moderate deviation approximations to marginal tail probabilities and weak convergence of the conditional distributions of certain ``clumps'' around high-level crossings. We also discuss how these results are related t…
