Social tipping processes for sustainability: An analytical framework
Ricarda Winkelmann, Jonathan F. Donges, E. Keith Smith, Manjana Milkoreit, Christina Eder, Jobst Heitzig, Alexia Katsanidou, Marc Wiedermann, Nico Wunderling, Timothy M. Lenton
Societal transformations are necessary to address critical global challenges, such as mitigation of anthropogenic climate change and reaching UN sustainable development goals. Recently, social tipping processes have received increased attention, as they present a form of social change whereby a small change can shift a sensitive social system into a qualitatively different state due to strongly self-amplifying (mathematically positive) feedback mechanisms. Social tipping processes have been suggested as key drivers of sustainability transitions emerging in the fields of technological and energy systems, political mobilization, financial markets and sociocultural norms and behaviors.
Drawing from expert elicitation and comprehensive literature review, we develop a framework to identify and characterize social tipping processes critical to facilitating rapid social transformations. We find that social tipping processes are distinguishable from those of already more widely studied climate and ecological tipping dynamics. In particular, we identify human agency, social-institutional network structures, different spatial and temporal scales and increased complexity as key distinctive features underlying social tipping processes. Building on these characteristics, we propose a formal definition for social tipping processes and filtering criteria for those processes that could be decisive for future trajectories to global sustainability in the Anthropocene. We illustrate this definition with the European political system as an example of potential social tipping processes, highlighting the potential role of the FridaysForFuture movement.
Accordingly, this analytical framework for social tipping processes can be utilized to illuminate mechanisms for necessary transformative climate change mitigation policies and actions.
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Institut de Física d’Altes Energies (IFAE)（高等物理能源研究所）；The Barcelona Institute of Science and Technology (BIST)（巴塞罗那科学与技术研究院）；University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学）；Dutch Institute for Emergent Phenomena, University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学荷兰涌现现象研究所）；Complexity Science Hub Vienna（维也纳复杂科学中心）；Dutch Institute for Emergent Phenomena（荷兰涌现现象研究所）；Department of Mathematics, VU Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹自由大学数学系）；Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek（荷兰中央统计局）
