AI 中文总结
研究社会与影响异质性对社会 - 气候结果的影响,利用耦合社会 - 气候模型,发现气候影响异质性使温度异常增加,还识别出临界点,指出减少全球差距可改善社会和气候结果。
AI 中文摘要
社会特征、温度变化以及对气候影响的脆弱性方面的区域异质性,可能影响人为气候变化的程度,但在旨在呈现社会与气候动态相互作用的耦合社会 - 气候模型中未被考虑。本文利用耦合社会 - 气候模型,研究全球五个区域这些因素的异质性如何影响预计的全球平均温度异常和人口对缓解措施的支持。发现气候影响异质性使温度异常增加0.2°C,社会异质性使其额外增加0.1°C。预计温度异常也随区域间气候影响变率增加。还识别出一个社会 - 气候临界点。结果表明气候影响异质性导致更高全球平均温度,减少全球差距可改善社会和气候结果。
英文摘要
Regional heterogeneity in social characteristics, temperature change, and vulnerability to climate impacts is likely to influence the magnitude of anthropogenic climate change, but has not been considered in coupled social-climate models, which seek to represent interactions between social and climate dynamics. Here, we examine how the projected mean global temperature anomaly and population support for mitigation respond to heterogeneity in these factors across five regions of the world, using a coupled social-climate model. We find that heterogeneity in climate impacts increases the temperature anomaly by 0.2$^\circ$C, while social heterogeneity increases it by an additional 0.1$^\circ$C. The projected temperature anomaly also increases with higher variability in climate impacts across regions, even for the same average global climate impact. Finally, we identify a social-climate tipping point, where low vulnerability to impacts under existing social conditions in one region can tip the system into an alternative slow-mitigation, high-temperature state. Our results show that heterogeneity in climate impacts leads to higher global mean temperatures and efforts to reduce global disparities could improve both social and climate outcomes.