预期引发的社会小费--环境能通过社会动态稳定吗？
Anticipation-induced social tipping -- Can the environment be stabilised by social dynamics?
摘要：
在过去的几十年里，人类活动引起了全球地球系统的变化，例如，气候变化或生物多样性丧失。与此同时，这些相关的影响提高了全球社会的环境意识，从而导致社会和自然地球系统之间的动态反馈。当代的地球系统动力学建模尝试很少包括这种共同演变和相互作用，大多是通过直接或记忆中的过去影响进行单向研究。认识到社会有额外的预见能力，这项工作提出了一个概念性的反馈模型的社会生态共同进化的具体建设的预期作为社会和自然系统之间的调解人。我们的模型再现了从以前的社会学阈值模型的双稳定性的结果，如果一个假设是静态的环境。一旦环境响应于社会行为而改变，系统反而会收敛到全局稳定但不一定是期望的吸引子。最终，我们表明，未来的生态状态的预期，然后导致亚稳定的系统中所需的状态可以持续很长一段时间。因此，我们证明，远见和预期形成了一个重要的机制，一旦其时间范围变得足够大，促进社会倾向的行为，可以稳定环境，防止潜在的社会生态崩溃。
英文摘要：
In the past decades human activities caused global Earth system changes, e.g., climate change or biodiversity loss. Simultaneously, these associated impacts have increased environmental awareness within societies across the globe, thereby leading to dynamical feedbacks between the social and natural Earth system. Contemporary modelling attempts of Earth system dynamics rarely incorporate such co-evolutions and interactions are mostly studied unidirectionally through direct or remembered past impacts. Acknowledging that societies have the additional capability for foresight, this work proposes a conceptual feedback model of socio-ecological co-evolution with the specific construct of anticipation acting as a mediator between the social and natural system. Our model reproduces results from previous sociological threshold models with bi-stability if one assumes a static environment. Once the environment changes in response to societal behaviour the system instead converges towards a globally stable, but not necessarily desired, attractor. Ultimately, we show that anticipation of future ecological states then leads to metastability of the system where desired states can persist for a long time. We thereby demonstrate that foresight and anticipation form an important mechanism which, once its time horizon becomes large enough, fosters social tipping towards behaviour that can stabilise the environment and prevents potential socio-ecological collapse.
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