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arXiv 2007.07847math.STstat.MEstat.TH
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逆回归问题模型选择的贝叶斯多重检验范式

A Bayesian Multiple Testing Paradigm for Model Selection in Inverse Regression Problems

Debashis Chatterjee, Sourabh Bhattacharya

摘要:

在这篇文章中,我们提出了一种新的贝叶斯多重检验公式,用于逆向设置中的模型和变量选择,明智地将Bhattacharya(2013)提出的逆参考分布的思想嵌入到由竞争模型组成的混合框架中。我们开发的理论和方法,在一般情况下,包括参数和非参数竞争模型,相关数据,以及误指定。我们的研究表明,渐近多重检验程序几乎肯定会选择最好的逆模型,最大限度地减少最小的Kullback-Leibler发散从真实的模型。我们还表明,差错率,即版本的错误发现率和错误的非发现率几乎肯定收敛到零的样本量趋于无穷大。本文还研究了错误发现率版本的渐近α-控制及其对错误非发现率版本收敛的影响。我们的模拟实验涉及基于小样本的选择之间的逆泊松对数回归和逆几何logit和probit回归,其中回归是线性的或基于高斯过程。此外,还考虑变量选择。我们的多个测试结果证明是非常令人鼓舞的意义上选择最好的模型在所有的非错误指定和错误指定的情况下。

英文摘要:

In this article, we propose a novel Bayesian multiple testing formulation for model and variable selection in inverse setups, judiciously embedding the idea of inverse reference distributions proposed by Bhattacharya (2013) in a mixture framework consisting of the competing models. We develop the theory and methods in the general context encompassing parametric and nonparametric competing models, dependent data, as well as misspecifications. Our investigation shows that asymptotically the multiple testing procedure almost surely selects the best possible inverse model that minimizes the minimum Kullback-Leibler divergence from the true model. We also show that the error rates, namely, versions of the false discovery rate and the false non-discovery rate converge to zero almost surely as the sample size goes to infinity. Asymptotic α-control of versions of the false discovery rate and its impact on the convergence of false non-discovery rate versions, are also investigated. Our simulation experiments involve small sample based selection among inverse Poisson log regression and inverse geometric logit and probit regression, where the regressions are either linear or based on Gaussian processes. Additionally, variable selection is also considered. Our multiple testing results turn out to be very encouraging in the sense of selecting the best models in all the non-misspecified and misspecified cases.

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