The focus of this work is on designing influencing strategies to shape the collective opinion of a network of individuals. We consider a variant of the voter model where opinions evolve in one of two ways. In the absence of external influence, opinions evolve via interactions between individuals in the network, while, in the presence of external influence, opinions shift in the direction preferred by the influencer. We focus on a finite time-horizon and an influencing strategy is characterized by when it exerts influence in this time-horizon given its budget constraints. Prior work on this opinion dynamics model assumes that individuals take into account the opinion of all individuals in the network. We generalize this and consider the setting where the opinion evolution of an individual depends on a limited collection of opinions from the network. We characterize the nature of optimal influencing strategies as a function of the way in which this collection of opinions is formed.
We study the problem of optimally investing in nodes of a social network in a competitive setting, where two camps aim to maximize adoption of their opinions by the population. In particular, we consider the possibility of campaigning in multiple phases, where the final opinion of a node in a phase acts as its initial biased opinion for the following phase. Using an extension of the popular DeGroot-Friedkin model, we formulate the utility functions of the camps, and show that they involve what can be interpreted as multiphase Katz centrality. Focusing on two phases, we analytically derive Nash…
Most previous works on opinion modeling lack the simultaneous study of individual mental activity and group behavior. This paper is motivated to propose an agent-based online opinion formation model based on attitude change theory, group behavior theory and evolutionary game theory in the perspective of sociology and psychology. In this model, there are three factors influencing the persuasion process, including credibility of the leaders, characteristic of the recipient, and group environment. The proposed model is applied to Twitter to analyze the influence of topic type, parameter changing,…
Indian Institute of Technology（印度理工学院）；Indian Institute of Science（印度科学学院）
In this paper, we study how to shape opinions in social networks when the matrix of interactions is unknown. We consider classical opinion dynamics with some stubborn agents and the possibility of continuously influencing the opinions of a few selected agents, albeit under resource constraints. We map the opinion dynamics to a value iteration scheme for policy evaluation for a specific stochastic shortest path problem. This leads to a representation of the opinion vector as an approximate value function for a stochastic shortest path problem with some non-classical constraints. We suggest two …
Social network based information campaigns can be used for promoting beneficial health behaviours and mitigating polarisation (e.g. regarding climate change or vaccines). Network-based intervention strategies typically rely on full knowledge of network structure. It is largely not possible or desirable to obtain population-level social network data due to availability and privacy issues. It is easier to obtain information about individuals' attributes (e.g. age, income), which are jointly informative of an individual's opinions and their social network position. We investigate strategies for i…
This paper considers a social network modeled as an Erdos Renyi random graph. Each individual in the network updates her opinion using the weighted average of the opinions of her neighbors. We explore how an external manipulative agent can drive the opinions of these individuals to a desired state with a limited additive influence on their innate opinions. We show that the manipulative agent can steer the network opinion to any arbitrary value in finite time (i.e., the system is controllable) almost surely when there is no restriction on her influence. However, when the control input is sparsi…
Many social phenomena are triggered by public opinion that is formed in the process of opinion exchange among individuals. To date, from the engineering point of view, a large body of work has been devoted to studying how to manipulate individual opinions so as to guide public opinion towards the desired state. Recently, Abebe et al. (KDD 2018) have initiated the study of the impact of interventions at the level of susceptibility rather than the interventions that directly modify individual opinions themselves. For the model, Chan et al. (The Web Conference 2019) designed a local search algori…
In this paper, we consider a network of consumers who are under the combined influence of their neighbors and external influencing entities (the marketers). The consumers' opinion follows a hybrid dynamics whose opinion jumps are due to the marketing campaigns. By using the relevant static game model proposed recently in [1], we prove that although the marketers are in competition and therefore create tension in the network, the network reaches a consensus. Exploiting this key result, we propose a coopetition marketing strategy which combines the one-shot Nash equilibrium actions and a policy …
The information system (T.V., newspapers, blogs, social network platforms) and its inner dynamics play a fundamental role on the evolution of collective debates and thus on the public opinion. In this work we address such a process focusing on how the current inner strategies of the information system (competition, customer satisfaction) once combined with the gossip may affect the opinions dynamics. A reinforcement effect is particularly evident in the social network platforms where several and incompatible cultures coexist (e.g, pro or against the existence of chemical trails and reptilians,…
We study a rating system in which a set of individuals (e.g., the customers of a restaurant) evaluate a given service (e.g, the restaurant), with their aggregated opinion determining the probability of all individuals to use the service and thus its generated revenue. We explicitly model the influence relation by a social network, with individuals being influenced by the evaluation of their trusted peers. On top of that we allow a malicious service provider (e.g., the restaurant owner) to bribe some individuals, i.e., to invest a part of his or her expected income to modify their opinion, ther…
Social media sites are now becoming very important platforms for product promotion or marketing campaigns. Therefore, there is broad interest in determining ways to guide a site to react more positively to a product with a limited budget. However, the practical significance of the existing studies on this subject is limited for two reasons. First, most studies have investigated the issue in oversimplified networks in which several important network characteristics are ignored. Second, the opinions of individuals are modeled as bipartite states(e.g., support or not) in numerous studies, however…
DeGroot-style opinion formation presumes a continuous interaction among agents of a social network. Hence, it cannot handle agents external to the social network that interact only temporarily with the permanent ones. Many real-world organisations and individuals fall into such a category. For instance, a company tries to persuade as many as possible to buy its products and, due to various constraints, can only exert its influence for a limited amount of time. We propose a variant of the DeGroot model that allows an external agent to interact with the permanent ones for a preset period of time…
A classical model for social-influence-driven opinion change is the threshold model. Here we study cascades of opinion change driven by threshold model dynamics in the case where multiple {\it initiators} trigger the cascade, and where all nodes possess the same adoption threshold $ϕ$. Specifically, using empirical and stylized models of social networks, we study cascade size as a function of the initiator fraction $p$. We find that even for arbitrarily high value of $ϕ$, there exists a critical initiator fraction $p_c(ϕ)$ beyond which the cascade becomes global. Network structure, in particul…
Individuals modify their opinions towards a topic based on their social interactions. Opinion evolution models conceptualize the change of opinion as a uni-dimensional continuum, and the effect of influence is built by the group size, the network structures, or the relations among opinions within the group. However, how to model the personal opinion evolution process under the effect of the online social influence as a function remains unclear. Here, we show that the uni-dimensional continuous user opinions can be represented by compressed high-dimensional word embeddings, and its evolution ca…
We present a user of model interaction based on the physics of kinetic exchange, and extend it to individuals placed in a grid with local interaction. We show with numerical analysis and partial analytical results that the critical symmetry breaking transitions and percolation effects typical of the full interaction model do not take place if the range of interaction is limited, allowing for the co-existence of majorty and minority opinions in the same community. We then introduce a peer recommender system in the model, showing that, even with very local iteraction and a small probability of a…
In this work, we investigate a heterogeneous population in the modified Hegselmann-Krause opinion model on complex networks. We introduce the Shannon information entropy about all relative opinion clusters to characterize the cluster profile in the final configuration. Independent of network structures, there exists the optimal stubbornness of one subpopulation for the largest number of clusters and the highest entropy. Besides, there is the optimal bounded confidence (or subpopulation ratio) of one subpopulation for the smallest number of clusters and the lowest entropy. However, network stru…
The classic influence maximization problem finds a limited number of influential seed users in a social network such that the expected number of influenced users in the network, following an influence cascade model, is maximized. The problem has been studied in different settings, with further generalization of the graph structure, e.g., edge weights and polarities, target user categories, etc. In this paper, we introduce a unique influence diffusion scenario involving a population that split into two distinct groups, with opposing views. We aim at finding the top-$k$ influential seed nodes so…
Online social networks provide a medium for citizens to form opinions on different societal issues, and a forum for public discussion. They also expose users to viral content, such as breaking news articles. In this paper, we study the interplay between these two aspects: opinion formation and information cascades in online social networks. We present a new model that allows us to quantify how users change their opinion as they are exposed to viral content. Our model is a combination of the popular Friedkin--Johnsen model for opinion dynamics and the independent cascade model for information p…
The relationship between the topology of a network and specific types of dynamics unfolding in networks constitutes a subject of substantial interest. One type of dynamics that has attracted increasing attention because of its several potential implications is opinion formation. A phenomenon of particular importance, known to take place in opinion formation, is echo chambers' appearance. In the present work, we approach this phenomenon, while emphasizing the influence of contrarian opinions in a multi-opinion scenario. To define the contrarian opinion, we considered the Underdog effect, which …
Modern technology has drastically changed the way we interact and consume information. For example, online social platforms allow for seamless communication exchanges at an unprecedented scale. However, we are still bounded by cognitive and temporal constraints. Our attention is limited and extremely valuable. Algorithmic personalisation has become a standard approach to tackle the information overload problem. As result, the exposure to our friends' opinions and our perception about important issues might be distorted. However, the effects of algorithmic gatekeeping on our hyper-connected soc…
Opinion dynamics concerns social processes through which populations or groups of individuals agree or disagree on specific issues. As such, modelling opinion dynamics represents an important research area that has been progressively acquiring relevance in many different domains. Existing approaches have mostly represented opinions through discrete binary or continuous variables by exploring a whole panoply of cases: e.g. independence, noise, external effects, multiple issues. In most of these cases the crucial ingredient is an attractive dynamics through which similar or similar enough agents…
In social sciences, simulating opinion dynamics to study the interplay between homophily and influence, and the subsequent formation of echo chambers, is of great importance. As such, in this paper we investigate echo chambers by implementing a unique social game in which we spawn in a large number of agents, each assigned one of the two opinions on an issue and a finite amount of influence in the form of a game currency. Agents attempt to have an opinion that is a majority at the end of the game, to obtain a reward also paid in the game currency. At the beginning of each round, a randomly sel…
Opinion dynamics - the research field dealing with how people's opinions form and evolve in a social context - traditionally uses agent-based models to validate the implications of sociological theories. These models encode the causal mechanism that drives the opinion formation process, and have the advantage of being easy to interpret. However, as they do not exploit the availability of data, their predictive power is limited. Moreover, parameter calibration and model selection are manual and difficult tasks. In this work we propose an inference mechanism for fitting a generative, agent-like …
In this work we study a modified version of the two-dimensional Sznajd sociophysics model. In particular, we consider the effects of agents' reputations in the persuasion rules. In other words, a high-reputation group with a common opinion may convince their neighbors with probability $p$, which induces an increase of the group's reputation. On the other hand, there is always a probability $q=1-p$ of the neighbors to keep their opinions, which induces a decrease of the group's reputation. These rules describe a competition between groups with high reputation and hesitant agents, which makes th…
Existing socio-psychological studies suggest that users of a social network form their opinions relying on the opinions of their neighbors. According to DeGroot opinion formation model, one value of particular importance is the asymptotic consensus value---the sum of user opinions weighted by the users' eigenvector centralities. This value plays the role of an attractor for the opinions in the network and is a lucrative target for external influence. However, since any potentially malicious control of the opinion distribution in a social network is clearly undesirable, it is important to desig…
In this paper we analyze influence maximization in the voter model with an active strategic and a passive influencing party in non-stationary settings. We thus explore the dependence of optimal influence allocation on the time horizons of the strategic influencer. We find that on undirected heterogeneous networks, for short time horizons, influence is maximized when targeting low-degree nodes, while for long time horizons influence maximization is achieved when controlling hub nodes. Furthermore, we show that for short and intermediate time scales influence maximization can exploit knowledge o…
Decision makers who receive many signals are subject to imperfect recall. This is especially important when learning from feeds that aggregate messages from many senders on social media platforms. In this paper, we study a stylized model of learning from feeds and highlight the inefficiencies that arise due to imperfect recall. In our model, failure to recall a specific message comes from the accumulation of messages which creates interference. We characterize the influence of each sender according to the rate at which she sends messages and to the strength of interference. Our analysis indica…
Online social networks are often subject to influence campaigns by malicious actors through the use of automated accounts known as bots. We consider the problem of detecting bots in online social networks and assessing their impact on the opinions of individuals. We begin by analyzing the behavior of bots in social networks and identify that they exhibit heterophily, meaning they interact with humans more than other bots. We use this property to develop a detection algorithm based on the Ising model from statistical physics. The bots are identified by solving a minimum cut problem. We show tha…
